Week 10 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

Miami struggled to keep pace with Kansas City, falling to the Chiefs by a score of 21-14 in Germany. We return undaunted to Week 10, and I have found two moneyline underdog picks on the 14-game schedule. 

Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished.

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the upcoming schedule of games.

Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdogs for Week 10 of the 2023 season!

Minnesota +2.5 vs. New Orleans

(+125, Bet365)

Find someone who loves you like I love fading the Saints. 

Fading New Orleans has been a profitable venture, as the Saints have one of the worst ATS records at 2-6-1. They also have one of the biggest discrepancies between their ATS record and their actual record. 

The Saints have also been poor ATS (1-2-1) as a road favorite, and they now travel to Minnesota to battle a Vikings team that is on a four-game win streak. Despite losing quarterback Kirk Cousins for the season, Minnesota has found new life behind former Arizona Cardinals quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who engineered a brilliant Week 9 comeback victory despite failing to have any practice time prior to the game. These two teams are very close in overall DVOA, with New Orleans just three spots ahead of Minnesota. The biggest difference between these two teams occurs with rushing efficiency on offense, where the Vikings enter Week 10 ranked just 28th in run offense DVOA. However, the presence of Dobbs drastically changed Minnesota’s ground efficiency, with the new signal-caller gaining 66 yards on just seven carries against Atlanta’s stiff rushing resistance. 

The Saints failed to impress in last week’s lackluster 24-17 victory over a woeful Bears roster, so I’m gladly taking the better team at home as a slight underdog. New Orleans and Minnesota are separated in defensive DVOA by just one spot, with the Saints ranking a brutal 17th in run defense. 

Our FTN Bets Model projects Minnesota +2.5 with a 5.2% chance of winning, and I’m pushing it even further with the Vikings earning their fifth-straight victory. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.25 Units

Houston +6.5 at Cincinnati

(+260, FanDuel)

I’m grabbing the Texans as a significant road underdog at Cincinnati, even against the scalding-hot Joe Burrow. 

Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud has been massively impressive as a rookie quarterback, with just one interception to 14 touchdown passes on the season. He is coming off a 470-yard passing performance against Tampa Bay with five touchdowns. Stroud welcomed back speedy rookie wideout Tank Dell, who was one of three Texans wide receivers with over 100 receiving yards against the Buccaneers. In the last three games Dell was fully healthy, Houston has defeated Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh and won at Jacksonville. 

Houston is hopeful to have RB Dameon Pierce back from an ankle injury, which would be critical against the Bengals’ sieve of a run defense. Cincinnati ranks just 24th in run defense DVOA. Houston and Cincinnati are separated by just two spots in team DVOA, making this a much closer battle than most would project. Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase also suffered a back injury in Week 9, so his status for this game is very questionable. 

Burrow is just 3-3 in his career as a home favorite of six points or more and just 1-3 in those games where Cincinnati is receiving over 50% of the bets.

I’m backing the surging Texans against a Bengals team that has very quickly, maybe too quickly, started receiving public support yet again. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 2.6 Units