Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Najee HarrisRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bengals vs. Steelers
Right now, Najee Harris’s rushing yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 64.4 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to accrue 16.4 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among running backs.
- Najee Harris has averaged 63.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among running backs (92nd percentile).
- The Cincinnati Bengals defensive ends grade out as the 9th-worst collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
Cons
- The Steelers are a giant 7-point underdog this week, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Najee Harris to be much less involved in his team’s rushing attack this week (66.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (78.8% in games he has played).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- Opposing squads have run for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 102 per game) vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
