Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Leonard FournetteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys
Right now, Leonard Fournette’s rushing yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-120/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 36.5 (-120) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 143.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 63.8 plays per game.
- The Dallas Cowboys defensive tackles rank as the worst DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have gone no-huddle on 12.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (8th-most in football). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have used motion in their offense on 45.6% of their plays since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), which can make an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 31.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Leonard Fournette to be a much smaller piece of his team’s run game this week (42.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.4% in games he has played).
- Leonard Fournette has run for quite a few less yards per game (44.0) this season than he did last season (60.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Rushing Yards
39
Rushing Yards
