Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Bengals vs. Steelers
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 9th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accrue 19.1 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among running backs.
- Joe Mixon has grinded out 57.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (89th percentile).
- Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most yards in football (144 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.80 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be much less involved in his offense’s rushing attack this week (68.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (81.0% in games he has played).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends project as the 3rd-best DE corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards
85
Rushing Yards
