Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Joe Mixon from EV Insight

Joe MixonRushing Yards

Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 9th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accrue 19.1 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has grinded out 57.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among RBs (89th percentile).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most yards in football (144 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.80 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be much less involved in his offense’s rushing attack this week (68.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (81.0% in games he has played).
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends project as the 3rd-best DE corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
85
Rushing Yards