Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron JonesRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Vikings vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to notch 10.7 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
- Aaron Jones has garnered 49.9% of his offense’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
- The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- Aaron Jones’s running efficiency (4.69 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (83rd percentile among running backs).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 3rd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 35.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards
47
Rushing Yards
