Week 1 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Aaron Jones from EV Insight

Aaron JonesRushing Yards

Right now, Aaron Jones’s rushing yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 129.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Jones to notch 10.7 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 76th percentile among running backs.
Aaron Jones has garnered 49.9% of his offense’s carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
The Green Bay Packers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Aaron Jones’s running efficiency (4.69 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (83rd percentile among running backs).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 3rd-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 35.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
The Green Bay Packers have gone no-huddle on just 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Rushing Yards