Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 1
Dolphins vs. Patriots
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 230.5 (-133) after it opened @ 239.5 (-115).
Pros
- Tua Tagovailoa has been among the most on-target passers in the league since the start of last season with an impressive 67.4% Completion%, ranking in the 87th percentile.
- The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Miami Dolphins have utilized play action on 33.9% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (2nd-most in the NFL), tricking the defense into thinking it’s a run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run among all games this week at 118.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
228
Passing Yards
228
Passing Yards
