Week 1 NFL Player Props of the Week

We got a taste of the return of the NFL with Thursday night’s kickoff game between the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams, but the season returns in earnest Sunday with our first full slate of the year.

As we get ready for a full day of games, I picked out some of my favorite individual player props for Week 1.

Terry McLaurin Longest Reception Over 22.5 Yards

-120, DraftKings Sportsbook

I’ve been waiting for them to post this number all week, and they did it at a very reasonable price. As a Washington fan, I’ve had a lot of trouble betting on Terry McLaurin over the past couple seasons. Even with inconsistent (and incompetent) quarterback play since his rookie season, he’s still managed to establish himself as one of the most dangerous outside receivers in the league. McLaurin finished last season with 1,053 receiving yards with primarily Taylor Heinicke at the helm, and this season he gets a quarterback upgrade, possibly the best of his young career. 

I understand the Carson Wentz hate runs deep in the Twitter world, but he is definitely an upgrade for this Washington offense. Heinicke was a gritty game manager, but he really couldn’t stretch the field, and the lack of arm strength severely limited Washington’s offense last season. While Wentz has had his fair share of struggles, one of the main strengths he’s consistently had has been his deep ball success rate. McLaurin is a talented pass-catcher, I believe Wentz should be a fairly good fit, at least for betting this market. 

McLaurin finished last season with an impressive 13.11-yard average depth of target along with leading the league in contested catches. He’s shown nothing but dominance in terms of separation, route running and contested catch skills. I’m hoping Wentz will be a more adequate vessel for McLaurin highlight plays this season. Additionally, this Jacksonville defense really isn’t much to be afraid off, especially considering they allowed the fourth-most explosive plays in the NFL last season. 

Antonio Gibson Over 40 Rushing Yards
Elijah Mitchell Over 50 Rushing Yards

Both -117, FanDuel Sportsbook

The reason I like both of these running backs is because it’s going to be extremely hard for the gamescript to get away from them. For Elijah Mitchell, the San Francisco 49ers were already one of the run-heaviest teams in football, and now, adding mobile quarterback Trey Lance into the mix is expected to solidify that even more. Mitchell had an incredible rookie season, averaging 87 rushing yards over 11 games. Whether the 49ers are leading this game by two touchdowns, or trailing by two, they are going to be running the ball. When Mitchell was healthy last season, he was the guy, and I’m expecting that to continue into this season. 

Antonio Gibson is also in a position where he is now the only “traditional” running back available, with pass-catching accomplice J.D. McKissic once again there to catch screen passes. With all the negative press, it might be easy to forget Gibson recorded 1,037 rushing yards (sixth most) last season despite this team mostly playing from behind. He does have a fumbling problem, but even if that problem does arise against this mediocre Jaguars defense, Washington doesn’t really have anyone else to establish the run. Gibson finished seventh in the NFL in broken tackles and sixth in yards after contact last season. Mitchell finished fifth in YAC and 10th in broken tackles. Both of these guys have plenty of juice, so these should be relatively easy numbers to eclipse.