Week 1 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

The NFL season is back! That means the NFL betting markets are open for business! We will have you covered here at FTN Bets are sides and totals for all our favorite weekly matchups. But we can’t forget about the dogs, specifically those high-value moneyline underdogs!

Each week, I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. These are high-risk plays for a reason — they will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. 

There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two or even three underdogs I like for the week. Here’s a look at my favorite moneyline underdogs for Week 1 of the 2023 season.

Week 1 NFL Moneyline Underdog Picks

Pittsburgh + 2.5 vs. San Francisco 

+120, DraftKings Sportsbook

I already outlined my support for the Steelers +2.5, but the same rationale holds for Pittsburgh as a moneyline underdog. As a home underdog, there are few coaches with a better ATS record than the Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin. In his 16 seasons as Steelers head coach, Tomlin’s ATS record as a home underdog is an astounding 15-4-3 (78.9%), per BetLabs. Pittsburgh has won straight up the eight of the last 11 games they were a home underdog. 

On the flip side, Kyle Shanahan has struggled as San Francisco head coach in these exact situations. Shanahan has failed to cover five of the last seven times he has been a road favorite and has a 3-7 ATS record in this situation since December of 2021. Shanahan has lost four of his last seven games straight up as a road favorite. He will now face a Steelers defense that is fully healthy and only allowed 18.3 PPG (seventh best) at home last season. 

The Steelers offense has looked magnificent in the preseason, with second-year quarterback Kenny Pickett fully utilizing some of the best offensive weapons of any team in the NFL. Wide receivers Diontae Johnson and George Pickens bring explosive big-play ability, with veteran Allen Robinson providing matchup problems in the slot. The Steelers are featuring a pair of versatile running backs in Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, who should exploit a 49ers defense that saw the third-most targets and seventh-most receptions to opposing running backs. 

I have concerns about San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy in his first game back from a torn UCL, especially with elite guard Mike McGlinchey now with Denver. I also have concerns about the health of 49ers tight end George Kittle, who is now questionable to play in this matchup, and star defensive end Nick Bosa is still holding out. 

We are always looking for edges in betting NFL sides, and there haven’t been more profitable edges to exploit than Tomlin’s Steelers as a home underdog. I am certainly backing the Steelers as moneyline home underdogs in their season opener. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.20 Units

Cleveland + 2.5 vs. Cincinnati 

+120, Bet365

Division rivalries where the favorite is on the road is always ripe for a moneyline underdog pick. Cleveland and Cincinnati are legendary rivals, clearly illustrated by former Bengals head coach Sam Wyche back in 1989. 

Going back to 2005, the home underdog in this matchup is 10-7 (58.8%) ATS. Even more impressive, the home underdog has won 10 of the last 15 matchups outright, for a 66.7% winning percentage. Last season, Cleveland pulled a huge upset on Halloween night, shocking the Bengals 32-13 despite being 3.5-point underdogs with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. The Browns entered on a four-game losing streak and held Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon to just 27 yards on eight attempts. The Browns defense was sensational, sacking Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow five times and adding an interception and fumble recovery. 

Cleveland now has Deshaun Watson back under center, with a full preseason of practice with the team. The Browns added versatile offensive weapon Elijah Moore, and still has elite offensive weapons in RB Nick Chubb, WR Amari Cooper, and TE David Njoku. The Browns also feature the league’s fourth-best offensive line per FTN’s Dan Fornek. By contrast, the Bengals offensive line provided the third-worst time in the pocket last season, at just 2.15 seconds. 

We still do not have clarity on whether Joe Burrow will start this game for Cincinnati. I think there is a good chance he does not play, which would trigger the Browns to immediately become the favorite in this matchup. 

Grab Cleveland now, as one of my favorite moneyline underdog plays of Week 1. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.20 Units

Tennessee +3 at New Orleans 

+160, Bet365

This one is not a home underdog, but the price is too juicy to pass up. I do not understand the betting market’s love of New Orleans. The Titans are being unfairly downgraded because they ended last year on a seven-game losing streak. Their last three losses came without Ryan Tannehill at quarterback, and their offensive line was decimated by injuries. Tennessee now has a healthy Tannehill back under center and utilized free agency and the NFL Draft in an effort to improve the offensive line. The Titans invested in former first-round pick Andre Dillard and 2022 49ers rotational lineman Daniel Brunskill to the fold to upgrade the left side of the offensive line, and they drafted highly rated offensive lineman Peter Skoronski with the 11th overall pick of the draft.

The Titans also return the league’s best run defense, ranking first overall in DVOA per FTN Fantasy. They get a huge boost from the return of DE Harold Landry III, who missed the entire 2022 season with an ACL injury. In 2021, Landry posted 12 sacks and 72 total quarterback pressures per FTN Data and gets to face second-year Saints left tackle Trevor Penning. New Orleans will need a big game from new Saints quarterback Derek Carr to move this offense. Carr ranked a woeful 28th in adjusted completion percentage, despite throwing to one of the elite wide receivers in the league in Davante Adams. The Saints must also function without start running back Alvin Kamara, who is suspended. 

This is belief in Mike Vrabel and a healthy Tennessee roster. The Titans are 23-15-1 (60.5%) ATS as an underdog in Vrabel’s five seasons as head coach. I’m backing Tennessee as my third moneyline underdog in Week 1. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.60 Units