Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As the fantasy football season rolls on, situations change quickly week to week. Whether injuries, totals, gamescripts, etc. the NFL landscape is constantly evolving. To help diagnose those changes weekly for fantasy football I’ll highlight them using our amazing FTN Fantasy splits tool. Let’s get to the top five for Week 1.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Football Team
The concern for McLaurin with Dwayne Haskins has faded as the offseason rolled along. While Haskins does not project to morph into an upper-echelon quarterback in his second season, he doesn’t have to for McLaurin’s ceiling to remain sky-high. In Haskins’ eight starts, McLaurin’s numbers were nearly identical to his early-season breakout. The only glaring difference here is his touchdown rate. While McLaurin’s early-season pace of 13 receiving touchdowns is likely unsustainable, his eight-game pace of four is also low. In an offense that projects to run more plays and pass more this season under Scott Turner, McLaurin will see more opportunities and more chances for this offense to get into the red zone.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
While many will shy away from Kamara facing off against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vaunted run defense, you should be sprinting toward him. Currently, the over/under for that game sits at 48. Over the last three seasons, when the Saints have played in a game with a total of 48 or higher, Kamara has seen his numbers soar. In the two games versus Tampa last season, Kamara saw 22 and 23 touches with a 24% target share. Last year, Kamara saw the lowest red-zone target share of his young career (13.5%). You want Kamara in your lineups when he smashes and others are fearful of playing him.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
For all my well-established love for Joshua Kelley, I must confess I am fascinated with Ekeler this week. As highlighted in my offensive line matchups to take advantage of in Week 1, the Chargers are set to steamroll the Bengals on the ground. We have seen the ceiling for Ekeler without Melvin Gordon, and it’s beautiful. Behind an improved offensive line in an exceptional matchup, Ekeler is primed to crush all competitors this week. Even with Tyrod Taylor or Kelley factoring here, Ekeler will still handily lead this backfield in touches. His ceiling is Christian McCaffrey lite at $3,000 less on DraftKings.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Ridley is ready to erase all of the memories of Mohamed Sanu headache weeks versus the Seahawks. When Sanu was traded to New England, Ridley flashed his immense potential for this season. In a game with the third-highest total (49) on the slate, the Falcons will not shy away from throwing and throwing often. Ridley will contend with Julio Jones for the team target lead this week against a soft matchup with Shaquill Griffin.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
With the entire pass-catching group banged up in San Francisco, Kittle is ready to lead the 49ers aerial attack. The Cardinals were the go-to matchup for tight ends last season. While Isaiah Simmons might have something to say about that this year, Kittle will still be the primary plan of attack for Jimmy Garoppolo. Over the last two years in games during which the total was 47.5 or higher (currently 48), Kittle averaged 85.2 receiving yards and 18.4 points on DraftKings. Kittle has slate-breaking upside this week at the tight end position.
