Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The fantasy football world has already gotten a taste of Underdog Fantasy’s amazing interface in best ball drafts, with this year’s Best Ball Mania awarding $15,000,000 in prizes, but believe it or not, for a few years now, they’ve also offered a “Battle Royale” mode, which is a draft format, solely based on the Sunday afternoon games. In the Daily Battle Royale mode, you’re entered in a draft with five other players, drafting a lineup that will compete against every other lineup signed up in the Battle Royale. This week’s main Battle Royale contests are going to have a $300,000 prize pool with $30,000 offered for first place, which is not too shabby for a $5 entry.
Here are some details on the Week 9 contest:
Now that we’re ready to build some lineups, there are three important rules to apply in every single lineup that you’re drafting.
- Make sure to have some sort of stack in your lineup – It doesn’t necessarily need to be a full game stack, but with only six QB’s selected in each draft, there should be a way for you to get the QB you need in your stack. If you start your draft with WR, WR through the first two rounds, 99% of the time, you’ll have the ability to pair one of them up with a QB in the third round. More often than not though, you’ll even be able to wait until later in the draft to put together a QB/WR combo. While you might not put together a QB/WR combo, you might be able to pair your QB with an opposing RB or WR, or maybe a WR with an opposing WR. There’s a lot of different ways to get some correlation, so keep it in the back of your mind when you’re making selections.
- Pay attention to your competition – If you don’t have the ability to give 100% attention to your draft, including the five other teams drafting in your lobby, don’t enter the contest. You can make or break your drafts just by keeping an eye on the positions the others are drafting. Every single draft will have a scenario that requires you to put the pieces of the puzzle together. For example: if you’re in the fifth round, drafting in fifth position, and still need to draft a QB, but see that the person drafting sixth has already drafted a QB, you definitely want to avoid picking your QB until the sixth round because there’s no way the person drafting sixth can pick a QB.
- Be creative with at least one of your picks – When it’s all said and done, there’s only going to be 36 players (6 QBs and 30 RB/WR/TEs) drafted in any given slate. Rostership is integral in every single GPP contest in DFS, and that includes these Battle Royales. It probably comes as no surprise that the top 36 players in ADP dominate the ownership. It doesn’t take much to differentiate your lineup, and you’re still going to be able to draft some pretty good players who have an ADP outside the top 36. With that said, I’ve looked over the results of the last three Battle Royales and there have been some winning lineups that haven’t been too unique, but more often than not, the way to go is to be a little different from the field.
Week 9 Battle Royale Strategy
Here is the current top 36 in ADP for Week 9’s Battle Royale:
Top Pairings
Bryce Young and Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers
Adam Thielen continues to climb in ADP week after week and will continue to see a ton of targets every single week. There’s virtually no matchup that has been able to stop Thielen, who has had at least 8 targets and 7 receptions in each of his last six games. Young is an intriguing low-rostered option who will likely be in a position to air the ball out more than usual.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants, and Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
This Giants/Raiders matchup is unlikely to be heavily targeted for a number of reasons, but I can see the Giants continuing to lean on Saquon Barkley against a Raiders team that made Jahmyr Gibbs look like the second coming of Barry Sanders Monday night and Davante Adams getting some redemption in his first game with a new head coach and starting QB.
Gardner Minshew and Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts
I love that I can get Garnder Minshew and Josh Downs in virtually any draft I want, considering they’re both going undrafted in most of these Battle Royales. Minshew is rarely going to wow you with his skills, but he provides a sort of “anything goes” mentality where he’s willing to sacrifice himself to help his team, and that’s a big reason why we’ve seen the Colts offense continue to thrive even with his frequent mistakes.
Top Low-Rostered Plays
Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young is being drafted as the QB11 in the Battle Royale this week. With last week’s reign of terror against the QB position, we’re left with a slate with an abundance of low-end options at QB. It has definitely pushed up the elite quarterbacks way up in ADP to the point where Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson are usually both drafted in the first round. If you miss out on the top QBs or even Dak Prescott, you’re going to have to be willing to play someone less than ideal at the QB position. I am willing to take a shot on quite a few guys this week, but I am especially intrigued by Bryce Young, who will get a great matchup against a Colts defense that is ranked 21st in total DVOA. With the Carolina ground game completely showing zero signs of life, the Panthers may have to rely on Young’s passing to hang with a Colts offense that has scored at least 20 points in five consecutive weeks.
Zack Moss, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Zack Moss is being drafted as the RB16 in the Battle Royale this week. Even with Jonathan Taylor taking a good chunk of Moss’ workload, Moss is still getting more than enough touches in order to make an impact, and he’s going to get a great matchup against the Panthers, who have the worst rush defense DVOA in the NFL. Week 8 was the first week where we saw Taylor outsnap Moss, yet Moss still had just one fewer touch than Taylor and was able to get into the end zone.
Josh Downs, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Josh Downs is being drafted as the WR18 in the Battle Royale this week. Downs is becoming the 1B to Michael Pittman’s 1A in the Colts passing attack. As the dedicated slot receiver, he’s going to consistently get targeted, and that’s definitely been the case over the last four weeks with Gardner Minshew at QB. With Minshew, he has seen at least 6 targets with 5 catches in each of his last four games. The odds of that trend continuing this week against the Panthers is pretty good with Troy Hill likely matched up against Downs most of the time. Downs’ production should really put him in position to be drafted in every single Battle Royale; however, as the WR18, you’re definitely seeing a ton of drafts where he’s completely ignored.
Christian Watson, WR, Green Bay Packers
Christian Watson is being drafted as the WR23 in the Battle Royale this week. Watson’s production is going to always fall in line with how Jordan Love performs. With Love’s struggles through the vast majority of the season, Watson’s numbers have looked mediocre. There’s still a “what if?” factor that is bound to come to fruition though. Watson has led Packers receivers in snaps and routes run in each of the last two weeks of play. He’s also going to see plenty of Derion Kendrick, who got absolutely annihilated last week by CeeDee Lamb. Kendrick is a good depth receiver, but absolutely has no place as a starting cornerback in the NFL. He is seemingly incapable of going an entire game without making significant mistakes, and I’m banking on that being the case this week against the Packers.
Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts is being drafted as the TE7 in the Battle Royale this week. Things are looking up for Pitts, who will be looking at a new QB under center in Taylor Heinecke. Heinecke doesn’t necessarily have a crazy stat where he’s targeting TEs more than the average QB, but it won’t take much for Heinecke to be a significant improvement compared to Desmond Ridder, who regularly made Pitts the most underutilized TE in football.
