Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The fantasy football world has already gotten a taste of Underdog Fantasy’s amazing interface in best ball drafts, with this year’s Best Ball Mania awarding $15,000,000 in prizes, but believe it or not, for a few years now, they’ve also offered a “Battle Royale” mode, which is a draft format, solely based on the Sunday afternoon games. In the Daily Battle Royale mode, you’re entered in a draft with five other players, drafting a lineup that will compete against every other lineup signed up in the Battle Royale.
This week’s main Battle Royale contests are going to have a $200,000 prize pool with $20,000 offered for first place with just a $5 entry fee. Here are some details on the Week 18 contest:
Now that we’re ready to build some lineups, there are three important rules to apply in every single lineup that you’re drafting.
- Make sure to have some sort of stack in your lineup – It doesn’t necessarily need to be a full game stack, but with only six QBs selected in each draft, there should be a way for you to get the QB you need in your stack. If you start your draft with WR, WR through the first two rounds, 99% of the time, you’ll have the ability to pair one of them up with a QB in the third round. More often than not though, you’ll even be able to wait until later in the draft to put together a QB/WR combo. While you might not put together a QB/WR combo, you might be able to pair your QB with an opposing RB or WR, or maybe a WR with an opposing WR. There’s a lot of different ways to get some correlation, so keep it in the back of your mind when you’re making selections.
- Pay attention to your competition – If you don’t have the ability to give 100% attention to your draft, including the five other teams drafting in your lobby, don’t enter the contest. You can make or break your drafts just by keeping an eye on the positions the others are drafting. Every single draft will have a scenario that requires you to put the pieces of the puzzle together. For example: if you’re in the fifth round, drafting in fifth position, and still need to draft a QB, but see that the person drafting sixth has already drafted a QB, you definitely want to avoid picking your QB until the sixth round because there’s no way the person drafting sixth can pick a QB.
- Be creative with at least one of your picks – When it’s all said and done, there’s only going to be 36 players (6 QBs and 30 RB/WR/TEs) drafted in any given slate. Rostership is integral in every single GPP contest in DFS, and that includes these Battle Royales. It probably comes as no surprise that the top 36 players in ADP dominate the ownership. It doesn’t take much to differentiate your lineup, and you’re still going to be able to draft some pretty good players who have an ADP outside the top 36. With that said, I’ve looked over the results of the last three Battle Royales and there have been some winning lineups that haven’t been too unique, but more often than not, the way to go is to be a little different from the field.
Week 18 Battle Royale Strategy
Here is the current top 36 in ADP for Week 18’s Battle Royale:
For the first 17 weeks of the season, I included specific pairings I would target in these Battle Royale drafts. I feel a bit uncomfortable with the notion of forcing some of these pairs/stacks. There are some obvious ones that are there for the taking depending on who you draft in the first or second round (e.g. CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott, Justin Jefferson and Nick Mullens, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jared Goff, and DJ Moore and Justin Fields). Beyond the obvious pairings, you might want to refrain from going too crazy with the pairs and game stacks this week given how volatile the last week of the season has historically been.
Among the top 36, the players I am more interested include Justin Jefferson, Trey McBride, Aaron Jones, Chris Godwin
Top Low-Rostered Plays
Derek Carr, QB, New Orleans Saints
Derek Carr is being drafted as the QB10 in the Battle Royale this week. The Saints are playing for their playoff lives this week and they might be without Alvin Kamara, who has not practiced all week. Carr hasn’t exactly shown the comfort level he had throughout his time as a Raider, but last week’s performance against the Bucs certainly showed a ton of promise. I just don’t see the Saints leaning a ton on Jamaal Williams, who has shown very little big play ability this season. Carr is a pretty safe play, but he hasn’t been afraid to sling the ball in his last few starts. The connection he’s been able to develop with Rashid Shaheed and Juwan Johnson has definitely made a difference.
Jordan Mason, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Jordan Mason is being drafted as the RB16 in the Battle Royale this week. With the 49ers basically waiving the white flag this week by sitting Brock Purdy, I just don’t buy any of the big guys like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and even Elijah Mitchell getting a full workload. I see Mason getting the majority of work from the RB position, and based on what we’ve seen this season, everyone getting snaps out of the backfield for the 49ers have been a threat to land in the end zone. With the Rams also resting most of their starters, Mason has the potential to spark a GPP winner.
Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
Terry McLaurin is being drafted as the WR30 in the Battle Royale this week. Even with the Commanders completely out of contention, we’re still seeing Scary Terry consistently lead the Washington receivers in snaps. Last week, he saw 89% of the snaps in a tough matchup against the full-strength 49ers. This week, the Commanders have a legitimate opportunity to play spoiler and keep the Cowboys from winning the NFC East. I find it insane that McLaurin is the WR30 considering he’s a safe bet to continue getting a completely full snap share.
Tutu Atwell, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Tutu Atwell is being drafted as the WR41 in the Battle Royale this week. With the emergence of Demarcus Robinson, we’ve seen Atwell take a big step back to the point where he has gotten 10 snaps or less in each of his last three games. Atwell has shown a great deal of promise throughout the season, and I can see Carson Wentz gravitating to Atwell in his first start as a Ram.
Tucker Kraft, TE, Green Bay Packers
Tucker Kraft is being drafted as the TE10 in the Battle Royale this week. I know that there’s been a lot of tight ends who have emerged in recent weeks, but Kraft has been as consistent as it gets since Luke Musgrave went down with an injury. He’s caught four balls for at least 48 yards in four consecutive games and faces a Bears team that has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the TE position this season.
