Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Last week we had another case of running back chalk smashing. I actually liked Mark Ingram and D’Ernest Johnson, though it only got me so far since they were so popular. Christian McCaffrey really should have had a 40+ point week, but he was vultured for freaking three touchdowns.
This week we have more running back chalk, but it’s not quite as cheap and valuable as last week. A.J. Dillon should get a large workload and has a good matchup, and he’s still priced about $1000 below where he should be. Let’s talk about him as well as my core plays of the week.
A.J. Dillon: With Aaron Jones and Kylin Hill out, the Packers are down to A.J. Dillon and their fourth-string running back, Patrick Taylor. Everyone knows Dillon will be a workhorse, so he’ll be popular. I don’t have any issue with this as a football play, but his salary is high enough that his value isn’t guaranteed like D’Ernest Johnson was last week. At $6200 on DK and $7k on FD, that’s a fadeable salary in my opinion. He’ll be popular, especially at high stakes, so I’m going to underown him for game theory purposes.
Core Plays
Jeff Wilson, San Francisco 49ers
No one really wants to roster Jeff Wilson, including myself. Sometimes he’s on the roster, sometimes he’s not. He’s basically their third- or fourth-best option at running back, but all of their running backs are injured or in the dog house. He’ll likely handle most of the touches with Kyle Juszczyk handling some passing situations. I could ignore Wilson, but they are playing the Jaguars and he does provide salary relief in lineups. He will be popular, but I’ll still try to overown him vs. the public, especially on FanDuel and SuperDraft where he’s dirt cheap.
Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
I like CMC again this week for the same reasons as last week. He is still a bit underpriced, and I don’t think the ownership will be too high on him. My guess is he will be rostered more this week, so he’s not as great a play, but I’ll still have him in a good amount of lineups.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings seem hell bent on feeding Dalvin Cook the ball, especially near the goal line. That three-touchdown game is coming, and I want to make sure I overown him when it does. I don’t think he’ll be that popular this week, so it’s pretty easy to get more exposure to him than the public.
James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
I view James Conner as a slightly less chalky version of A.J. Dillon. Since Conner was a bit of a bust last week and Dillon hasn’t screwed anyone over yet as chalk, people will gravitate toward Dillon. However, I like Conner better. Both teams have similar team totals, except Dillon has a skill player on the field who’s much better than him, Davante Adams. The Cardinals offense is still without DeAndre Hopkins, and their passing game will be reliant on Christian Kirk and A.J. Green. I don’t plan on being super heavy on Conner, but I’ll have more of him than the public.
Christian Kirk and A.J. Green, Arizona Cardinals
If Kyler Murray is playing, I’m going back to the well here too. Needless to say, A.J. Green was a disappointment last week. If Murray is out again, I probably won’t use him much. However, if Kyler is likely playing, then I think my analysis from last week still applies. Green and Christian Kirk should get some more looks and opportunities with Chase Edmonds and DeAndre Hopkins out. The Cardinals just imploded last week, so it didn’t work. If Kyler is back, I think the Cardinals should be able to move the ball just fine, so a cheap and contrarian Green is something I want to have as part of my lineups. Kirk is fine too, but he’s more expensive and popular since he’s produced lately.
Ryan Tannehill and A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
The Titans have the best record in the AFC. They have their sights set on home-field advantage through the playoffs. They aren’t just hoping to win games with Adrian Peterson and D’Onta Foreman on offense. Their offense has clearly shifted to a pass-focused offense as shown in our splits tool. MagicSportsGuy tweeted it out recently:
After last week’s game where Marcus Johnson went off and A.J. Brown just got one target, some people are likely scared off Brown. I love him and Tannehill in general. They’re playing the Texans; the Titans will certainly score some points. This is my favorite stack of the week, and I’ll have a good amount of it.
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
According to our splits tool, in the two games Aaron Jones was out last year, Davante Adams saw about 3.5 more targets per game: NFL DFS Splits Tool – FTNDaily. It’s a small sample size of course, but I do think the Packers will rely on Adams more just like A.J. Dillon will get more carries. Adams will be popular this week, but probably not as much as Dillon. He’ll be my go-to high-end receiver in a lot of lineups, and of course I’ll have an Aaron Rodgers stack with him as well. With Allen Lazard out as well, I feel it’s worth throwing in Marquez Valdes-Scantling as part of some of my Packers stacks.
Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills
The Bills offense generally produces, but it’s a bit of roulette which receiver will go off. Stefon Diggs is the top receiver for sure, but Emmanuel Sanders will occasionally outproduce him. Given last week was a Diggs week and Sanders’ salary and ownership will be reduced, I’m going to sprinkle in some Sanders in some of my lineups and Josh Allen stacks. He won’t be in a lot of my lineups since his floor is pretty low, but I’ll have more of him than the public.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team
He’s the clear alpha receiver and playmaker on the team; he’s just had a small stretch without a touchdown. On a week where there isn’t really a whole lot of contrarian plays with a high ceiling, I like Terry McLaurin a lot. His lowered salary makes him more appealing from a value standpoint as well.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson looked terrible in his first game back from injury, and the Packers managed to shut out the Seahawks last week. It takes a little bit of a leap of faith to roster a Seahawk receiver this week, but the sportsbooks seem to think the Seahawks will put up some points this week, making them just 2.5-point underdogs in a game with a 48 total. You’re not going to find the public lower on the two top Seahawk receivers in this type of game, and both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are priced about $1k cheaper than they typically are. I like them both, but Lockett seems a little better since he is cheaper and the two receivers have nearly identical production so far this year.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
No one wants to touch the Bears offense. I think Justin Fields may finally be making his stride, and Darnell Mooney is emerging as his top receiver. With Allen Robinson out or potentially limited this week, that’s even more potential targets that may go his way. I like Mooney as a value play as well as part of a Fields stack.
Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys
Yes, I’m going there again. With Amari Cooper out, everyone will be touting CeeDee Lamb or Michael Gallup. It’s also possible Dalton Schultz just plays more of a role in the passing game. He has become a near every-down tight end, as I expected. He just busted last week. It happens. He’s a great way to get contrarian exposure to a high-total game that everyone else will be stacking with other guys. I love this play this week.
