TwoGun’s core NFL DFS picks for Week 1

It’s the most wonderful time of year! Football is back, DFS is back, and we have some fun new tools for you to play with at FTN Daily.

If you read my article last year, I’d like to sincerely thank you for sticking with us and continuing to read my analysis. I’m not going to promise you no David Johnson touts this year, but it’s looking very unlikely to happen with that committee backfield the Texans have at least.

If you’re new to FTN Daily or reading my article, I typically analyze each week and go through the chalky players and roughly how much exposure I’ll have to them. I play a contrarian style. Thus, I generally avoid the chalk and focus on low owned plays, but sometimes I do get similar or more exposure to some chalky players than the public.

Week 1 is a different animal than most weeks. Since we all don’t have any games or trends to latch on to, it’s difficult to say for sure what the chalk will be or how much exposure to a player you need to have to over-roster him. So my typical strategy of analyzing the chalk and deciding where to pivot so I can have a pretty contrarian lineup just doesn’t do as well.

For Week 1, I preach contest selection more than anything. If you’re a player who plays $5,000 or less in lineups a week (which I assume is more than 90% of you), then you can probably get an edge this week grinding any overlay on Yahoo or SuperDraft. For those unsure of what I mean by overlay, it means the contest doesn’t fill and the site ends up having to add money to the prize pool. Or in even simpler terms, there are fewer people fighting over the same number of prizes, so it’s easier to win. 

This is one of those “Do as I say, not as I do” situations, since that advice doesn’t apply well to me due to the massive dollar volume I play. I generally play less Week 1 since my core strategy doesn’t apply as well, but FanDuel does have a Milly Maker with a $3,300 buy-in, which is my favorite type of tournament. So if they throw me a deal or it overlays, needless to say I’ll be slinging quite a few entries into that.

Now this is generally where I get to the point in the article where I analyze the main chalk of the week and how much exposure I’ll have to each of those players. With so many games and no clear heavy chalk, I don’t want to analyze a bunch of random guys who may be anywhere from 10% to 30% rostered and deciding if I’ll be over or below that pretty wide spread.

Instead, I’m approaching this week as focusing on some core players and mixing in quite a few game stacks from different games. I’m sure I’ll end up fading a bunch of chalky guys by accident. For example, I’ll probably underown Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry since they’re not my core guys (will likely have them in a lineup or two, so not a 100% fade to be clear). However, do I underown them vs. 10% or 30% of the field? I don’t know. I just know I likely won’t be cheering when they score touchdowns.

Core plays

Mike Davis, RB, Atlanta Falcons

You probably expected me to lead off with an Alvin Kamara or one of my all-time favorites like Davante Adams or DeAndre Hopkins. In a way, then, I wanted to start with Mike Davis for the shock value. I think the Falcons signed Todd Gurley last year because they hoped he could be their clear No. 1 back and be the Todd Gurley of 2017/2018. They fed him a hefty snap count and gave him plenty of usage but decided to part ways after the year. I think they are looking at Davis to fill this role they hoped for Gurley. Davis did great filling in for Christian McCaffrey in 2020, and the Falcons really don’t have much running back talent behind Davis (perennial backup Wayne Gallman is the No. 2). 

Everyone is focused on Kyle Pitts and Calvin Ridley since Julio Jones left, but I think Davis could end up just getting more usage as well. Davis is $5,600 on DK and $6,200 on FD. I think he’ll be an $8k type of running back before we know it. The Falcons play at home and are small favorites in what could be a high-scoring game. I think Davis presents great value, and I don’t think he’ll be that popular this week. He may be the player I end up having the most leverage with against the field.

Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers

With Jamaal Williams gone, the expectation has been that A.J. Dillon will just fill Williams’ previous role. However, I also could see Aaron Jones‘ role increasing in the offense. He’s the Packers’ top playmaker after Davante Adams and could figure heavily into the passing game as well. I like his high upside and likely relatively low ownership this week.

Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints

With Michael Thomas out, Alvin Kamara becomes the clear No. 1 playmaker for the Saints. I honestly feel he should be the most expensive player of the week since he’ll have a CMC-type workload. He will be chalky for sure, but at his price I still want more exposure to him than the field. He’ll likely be in half or more of my lineups.

Let’s talk Saints receivers: Marquez Callaway figures to be chalky, especially since Tre’Quan Smith is out as well. How chalky will Callaway be? No one really knows. I’ll have him in some lineups. I’m aiming to have him in 10% or so of them on SuperDraft and DraftKings (I’ll have him little to none on FD). If the public goes crazy using him, then that would translate into a hefty fade. I’ll mix in Deonte Harris and even maybe a little Lil’Jordan Humphrey in Saints stacks and Packers-Saints game stacks. I don’t think it’s really clear who will get a lot of targets and opportunities outside of Kamara, so I’ll spread out my Saints receiving exposure among the three wide receivers. But to be clear, when it comes to the Saints, the one guy I love is Kamara and that’s about it.

Corey Davis/Elijah Moore, WR, New York Jets

In contrast to the Saints receiver situation, I do like the Jets receivers. With Jamison Crowder out and the Jets running back situation a bit of a mess, these two receivers should get a good number of targets. Both Corey Davis and Elijah Moore are pretty cheap, with Moore minimum salary on DraftKings. The Jets offense really can’t get any worse since Adam Gase is gone. I’m going to have some Jets stacks as well as sprinkle in these two guys quite a bit into various lineups as salary relief.

D.J. Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers

I probably like this Jets-Panthers game more than I should, especially on the passing side. I can see D.J. Moore getting fed a ton of targets, and he’s priced more in the high mid-range wide receivers. For a potential 10-target-a-game guy, that’s just way too low. It’s also not exactly like we expect the Jets to have the most stellar pass defense in the world. I’ll have plenty of Moore this week.

Michael Pittman, WR, Indianapolis Colts

The Seahawks-Colts game could be a great game to stack in my opinion. It has a high over/under, but the public does not seem to be focused on it too much. The Colts under Philip Rivers weren’t a fun passing game to stack, but that may change since Carson Wentz is actually an upgrade at quarterback. With T.Y. Hilton out, Pittman is their best pass-catching talent. I can see Pittman’s price jumping 40-50% from where it’s at in the coming weeks. He may be a little chalky this week, but I still want to overuse him against the public.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Houston Texans

You didn’t seriously think I would end this article without touting at least one guy from the most hated team in football, did you? The Texans are indeed a mess. The running back by committee they have makes rostering one of their running backs near impossible this week. However, it’s pretty clear who will likely get fed targets, and that’s Brandin Cooks. I doubt he’ll be rostered that much this week, so he should be a pretty contrarian play with a lot of upside. The Texans do play at home this week and are still expected to keep the game close and score some points. I’m firing Cooks up in quite a few lineups this week.