Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The phrase “break the slate” is tossed around often in the DFS world, and for good reason. First, it just sounds cool. And second, because it’s actually true.
Think of all fantasy points scored each week as a gravitational pull. When fantasy points are bell-curve distributed like they are most weeks, the DFS solar system works. When one player starts gobbling up more and more fantasy points, that player’s gravitational pull on the slate becomes stronger. If they score enough fantasy points, they become a black hole of sorts and “break the slate.”
Eventually, black holes become truth for all. If you own a slate breaker one week, you’re going to win. If you don’t, you won’t. It’s that simple.
Here are the five players most likely to break the slate in Week 9.
(Editor’s note: Aaron Rodgers was initially one of the five for this week, but with the news he has tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss the week, he obviously no longer applies. This will be updated later with a fifth name.)
Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers take on the Eagles, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to RBs, in a game with a 50-point over/under with LA serving as 1.5-point favorites. So the shootout potential is there, as are Austin Ekeler’s odds of being heavily involved all game.
Ekeler is usually awesome, but everything about his stat sheet jumps up when the total is 50-plus. Most importantly, in games with this high of a total, his target per game rise to over 7, compared to under 5 when the total is lower. Ekeler sees an additional 5 total opportunities per game in similar game environments, per the FTN splits tool.
Couple Ekeler’s expected jump in opportunity with Eagles propensity for giving up plays to RBs (109 rush yards per game, 1 rush TD per game, 8 receptions per game, 54 receiving yards per game), and you have a recipe for a big game.
Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
With no Henry Ruggs — who had been commanding roughly a 15% team target market share most weeks — the targets are likely to be distributed mostly to Darren Waller and Bryan Edwards, and then scattered throughout the rest of the offense. It could push Waller up from his 20%-25% target market share range up to an elite 30%.
In games with at least 8 targets, Waller has gone bananas, averaging over 20 DraftKings PPG — more than double his points in games with fewer than 8 targets.
Waller has only topped this mark twice this season. He’s a great bet to do it again in Week 9.
Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens
Marquise Brown is in a great spot against the Vikings defense, which has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to WRs and offers Brown the second-best individual WR-CB matchup of the week.
Brown will run over 50% of his routes against Bashaud Breeland, who has allowed 0.43 fantasy points per route covered, the second-most of any CB in the league. Brown, meanwhile, has 0.51 fantasy points per route run, tied for seventh-most among all WRs.
15.5% of passes against the Vikings D are deep balls (second-highest rate in the NFL), while Brown ranks fourth (minimum 30 targets) with a 15.9 average depth of target and fourth with 908 air yards. Brown is a good bet for at least one TD of 40-plus yards this week, and he’s a real threat to score multiple TDs, as he leads the league in end zone targets (9).
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs has been a solid fantasy producer this year, but he hasn’t jumped off the page like we all expected. That should change in Week 9 against the Jaguars, who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to WRs and provide Diggs with the fifth-best individual WR-CB matchup of the week.
Diggs lines up all over the field, and he should have no problem exposing the weak Jaguars secondary. All three Jacksonville starting CBs allow catch rates of over 70%, and Tyson Campbell, the CB Diggs will see most often, is allowing an embarrassing 0.51 fantasy points per route covered, easily the most in the league.
