Top 5 NFL DFS slate-breakers for Week 16

The phrase “break the slate” is tossed around often in the DFS world, and for good reason. First, it just sounds cool. And second, because it’s actually true. 

Think of all fantasy points scored each week as a gravitational pull. When fantasy points are bell-curve distributed like they are most weeks, the DFS solar system works. When one player starts gobbling up more and more fantasy points, that player’s gravitational pull on the slate becomes stronger. If they score enough fantasy points, they become a black hole of sorts and “break the slate.” 

Eventually, black holes become truth for all. If you own a slate breaker one week, you’re going to win. If you don’t, you won’t. It’s that simple.

Here are the five players most likely to break the slate in Week 16.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Matthew Stafford has been incredibly consistent all season, but a complete lack of rushing ability has kept him under 30 fantasy points (DraftKings) in all but two games despite the strong season. He’ll have a good chance to reach that lofty mark again in Week 16 against the Vikings, who have allowed the third-most fantasy points to QBs on the year including three-plus TDs in three of their last five.

In that span, Ben Roethlisberger (308-3), Jared Goff (296-3) and Aaron Rodgers (385-4) have ripped this defense. Stafford has a stat line like Rodgers in his grasps this week. The Rams-Vikings game currently has the higher over/under on the Sunday slate (48.5).

James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

James Robinson is a potential slate-breaker in two fashions: He could rack up the fantasy points in a hurry this week, and he’s significantly cheaper than our typical slate-breaker choices. But a combination of injuries, COVID-19 questions, and matchups of the more expensive options this week’s drives us to Robinson as the RB most likely to break the Week 16 slate.

Last week, in his first game without Urban Meyer, he tied a season high in attempts (18) and targets (6), and his 24 combined opportunities was a season high for a single game. And that was in a 16-30 loss. The Jags actually have a chance to lead (or play in neutral) this week, as they are only 2.5-point underdogs to the Jets.

The Jets rank last in rush TDs allowed and bottom-five in yards allowed, tackles missed, and gash runs allowed (10-plus yards).

Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings

To set the record straight: Justin Jefferson is a slate-breaking option this week even with Adam Thielen plays. And if Thielen misses, that’s all the more reason to be obsessed with Jefferson’s Week 16 spot. His usage over the second half of the season has been ridiculous. After topping 10 targets three times from Weeks 1-9, he’s reached the mark in five of his last six games.

In that span, Jefferson has blown the rest of the WR field away in yards, air yards, TDs, target share, and air yard share: 

He also has five TDs in Minnesota’s last five games, including a score in three straight. As noted above in the Stafford section, the Rams-Vikings game sets up as the best game environment for shootout potential. If that happens, Jefferson will surely be a key reason why. 

Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams

What else is there to say about Kupp at this point? 10 receptions and 100 yards seems to be his floor. His ceiling includes 2 TDs — something he has accomplished a ridiculous five times already this season. (For comparison, Kupp has the same number of multi-TD receiving games as Ben Roethlisberger has multi-TD passing games this year.)

Aside from his historic usage and pace, it’s also just a good matchup. Minnesota has allowed the third-most yards to slot WRs on the year, the second-most TDs per game to slot WRs, and the second-most fantasy points out of the slot.

Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens

Mark Andrews has activated Beast Mode in recent weeks, shredding defenses with lines of 11-115-1 and 10-136-2 in back-to-back weeks, but the truth is that his impressive run started long before that. Dating back to Week 9, he has seen at least 10 targets in all but two games (9 and 8 targets in the other two). He now has 5 TDs in his last 6 games.

The matchup against the Bengals is a great one, as they rank in the bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to TEs on the season and have especially struggled recently. The Bengals were slaughtered by George Kittle to the tune of 13-151-1 in Week 14, and Darren Waller dropped 116 yards on 7 receptions on them in Week 11. Foster Moreau (Week 11) and Pat Freiermuth (Week 12) also scored on them. It’s been a brutal month for the Bengals against TEs. Andrews will feast.