Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
The phrase “break the slate” is tossed around often in the DFS world, and for good reason. First, it just sounds cool. And second, because it’s actually true.
Think of all fantasy points scored each week as a gravitational pull. When fantasy points are bell-curve distributed like they are most weeks, the DFS solar system works. When one player starts gobbling up more and more fantasy points, that player’s gravitational pull on the slate becomes stronger. If they score enough fantasy points, they become a black hole of sorts and “break the slate.”
Eventually, black holes become truth for all. If you own a slate breaker one week, you’re going to win. If you don’t, you won’t. It’s that simple.
Here are five players most likely to break the slate during the Divisional Round.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is the elite QB with the best chance to go nuclear this weekend against the Chiefs, the 31st-ranked pass defense and 31st-ranked defense in terms of fantasy points allowed to QBs. Allen shredded the elite Patriots defense last week with 5 TDs on just 25 pass attempts (to go along with 66 rushing yards). When the Bills and Chiefs squared off in Week 5, Allen scored 39.5 DraftKings points with 315 passing yards, 3 pass TDs, 59 rushing yards and 1 rush TD.
Leonard Fournette, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Leonard Fournette announced himself that he’s returning this weekend, which should be taken with a grain of salt obviously — but it at least seems positive. Bruce Arians has previously stated that when Fournette returns, he’ll be a full go with his usual workload. Giovani Bernard and Ke’Shawn Vaughn combined for 33.5 fantasy points last week doing work that would be almost entirely Fournette’s alone if he’s on the field. The matchup is not ideal (Rams are top-10 against RBs), but there are no good fantasy RB matchups left at this point in the season, and Fournette has the highest TD equity in a three-down role at an extremely, extremely cheap price.
Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers
Davante Adams went nuclear against these same 49ers back in Week 3, catching 12 of 18 targets (both of which ended up being season highs) for 132 yards and 1 TD. The yardage was his third-highest mark of the season. Adams has found his nose for the end zone again, too. He caught only 3 TDs from Weeks 1-10, then he caught 8 TDs in Weeks 11-17. He has the second-best individual WR-CB matchup of the week, where he’ll primarily square off against Ambry Thomas, who has allowed 0.35 fantasy points per route covered — most among all starting CBs playing this weekend.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase has the third-best individual WR-CB matchup of the weekend and the best on-paper matchup when looking at total team defense against WRs. The Titans have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing WRs on the year, coughing up an embarrassing 42 fantasy PPG (DraftKings) to the position. Only one other team in the league (the Vikings) allowed more than 40. Chase is a fantasy nuclear bomb and has double-digit targets in three of his last four games as his connection with QB Joe Burrow looks more and more like Aaron Rodgers-to-Davante Adams by the week.
Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs was quiet last week, catching just 3-of-4 targets for 60 yards and failing to score despite Josh Allen popping off with 5 pass TDs. But Allen only threw 25 passes, and the Bills controlled the game wire to wire, so let’s not read into this too much. The 4 targets were Diggs’ season low, and he did score an impressive 10 TDs on the year. Kansas City, meanwhile, has the 24th-ranked pass defense and has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this year, including Ja’Marr Chase’s 13-266-3 explosion in Week 17. Diggs caught only two passes against KC back in Week 5, but he averaged 35 yards per reception on those plays, but it was his teammate (Emmanuel Sanders) who caught 2 TDs. The point is: It just as easily could have been Diggs, and if you played the game 100 times, it would be Diggs more often than not. You will obviously want pieces of this game. Diggs should be at the center.
