College Football Props of the Week: Week 4
Walter Waddell
Across the sports betting market, there tends to be strong uniformity in NFL sides, totals and moneylines — but not total uniformity.
Using our NFL odds page to lineshop, I’ve identified the following three lines that right now offer the most value at DraftKings Sportsbook relative to the rest of the market.
For all of this week’s best bets, make sure to check out our FTN Bet Tracker.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants Week 12 Odds
- Bet: Giants +4
- Odds: -110
This line is at Giants +3.5 across most of the industry, but you can grab a delicious +4 on DraftKings Sportsbook. Four is a key number in NFL betting, so the difference between 3.5 and 4.0 is sizable.
As far as the matchup itself, the Eagles have put together some excellent performances recently. They went into Denver and beat the Broncos 30-13, and they followed that up with a 40-29 demolition against the Saints last week.
Their rushing attack has been the biggest reason for their success. They’ve logged at least 176 rushing yards in four straight games, and they’ve racked up at least 216 yards in three of them.
The Giants represent an exploitable matchup, ranking 30th in Football Outsiders rush defense DVOA. However, they’re likely going to be without Jordan Howard, who has sat out practice to start the week. He’s been arguably their best running back this season, leading the position with 5.4 yards per attempt. They have some other players who can pick up the slack – namely Miles Sanders – but Howard’s emergence in the rotation has correlated directly with the Eagles’ uptick in rushing yards.
Overall, this line is a bit inflated. The Giants haven’t been a good team this season, but they have played a lot of competitive contests. That wasn’t the case last week vs. the Buccaneers, but there’s no shame in losing to the defending champs in their building. The Giants secured home wins over the Panthers and Raiders in their past two home contests, and they lost by just three points on the road against the Chiefs. They can keep this game competitive, so I’ll grab them as home underdogs of greater than a field goal.
Pick: Giants +4
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers Week 12 Odds
- Bet: Vikings ML
- Odds: +150
What do the Vikings have to do to get some respect? They secured a massive victory over the Packers last week, bringing them to 5-5 for the year.
However, their advanced metrics suggest they are much better than their current record indicates. They rank 11th in total DVOA, which puts them ahead of teams like the Packers, Chargers and Ravens. They’ve simply been unlucky in a few close contests, losing by four points to the Cowboys, three points to the Ravens and Bengals, and one point to the Cardinals. Overall, only one of their losses has come by greater than four points all year.
The 49ers have also looked impressive recently, but I’m not ready to say they’re a better team than the Vikings. There is a huge gap between these two teams at the quarterback position in particular. Kirk Cousins has quietly been excellent this season, and he owns the second-highest grade at the position per Pro Football Focus. Jimmy Garoppolo ranks merely 23rd in that department.
The 49ers have been able to dominate teams with their rushing game of late, but they may not have that luxury against the Vikings. They’re explosive offensively, so the 49ers could find themselves in trouble if they fall behind early.
I ultimately don’t see much to separate these two squads, so I’ll roll the dice with the Vikings at +150 on DraftKings Sportsbook. That’s the best price on the Vikings’ moneyline across the industry.
Pick: Vikings ML
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts Week 12 Odds
- Bet: Under 53.5
- Odds: -115
The offenses in this game are getting plenty of attention. The Buccaneers rank first in the league in offensive DVOA, while the Colts have been on a major hot streak recently. Much of that stems from Jonathan Taylor. He racked up five touchdowns last week against the Bills, but the Colts have quietly scored at least 30 points in five of their past six games.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise that this total has risen across the industry. It’s sitting at 53.0 at most of the sportsbooks, but it’s gone to 53.5 on DraftKings. If you are looking at the under, that’s the clear location to take it.
It’s definitely worth remembering that both of these teams are excellent on the defensive side of the ball, as well. Both squads rank in the top 10 in terms of defensive DVOA, and the Buccaneers match up well with the Colts on that side of the ball. They’re more vulnerable against the pass than the run, so Carson Wentz is likely going to have to be the one to beat them. Wentz has played better of late, but it remains to be seen what will happen to this offense if Taylor is kept in check.
Pick: Under 53.5
