NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
There’s no rush quite like the rush of being right about a player no one else wanted. “Pure elation” is the only way to describe the feeling of watching your 3% rostered receiver catch his second TD on the way to 150 yards. We are forever chasing this feeling in DFS, but it’s not just about the feeling. Contrarian upside plays are the keys to GPP takedowns. The difficulty is finding them.
Rarely will we find players who are under-rostered in an obviously great matchup. Not never, but rarely. If a player is facing a bad defense, with a high team total, everyone knows that. These days, in order to find a great matchup that no one else knows about, we often have to go deep into the data with StatsHub — these plays will be highlighted as StatsHub Specials. Or, we can rely on the GPP Scores (found on the ownership page or in the optimizer) to tell us who is under-rostered for myriad other reasons. In either case, here are my top 10 plays under 10%:
10 Under 10% for DFS Week 2
1. Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray had over 50 rushing yards in Week 1, but it was otherwise a dull fantasy performance. He rarely pushed the ball downfield, plus they added a kick return TD to steal a possession from him. The main obstacle for Kyler seems to be Arizona’s tendency to rely on the run, especially in the red zone. However, it won’t be easy to do that against the Rams. Detroit was able to succeed behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, but this was still one of the most severe pass funnels in the league last season:
The Rams were also the second-most favorable matchup for opposing TEs according to this DVOA-adjusted fantasy points against metric, so it could be a perfect week to pair Kyler with Trey McBride.
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