Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Adjusted Line Yards
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Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regression analysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries and assigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:
- Losses: 120% value
- 0-4 Yards: 100% value
- 5-10 Yards: 50% value
- 11+ Yards: 0% value
These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation, opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotgun compared to standard formations. Finally, we normalize the numbers so that the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the same as the league average for RB yards per carry. These stats are explained further here.
The following stats are not adjusted for opponent:
- RB Yards: Yards per carry by that team’s running backs, according to standard NFL numbers.
- Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.
- Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (No. 1) to most often (No. 32).
- Second Level Yards: Yards which this team’s running backs earn between 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.
- Open Field Yards: Yards which this team’s running backs earn more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.
Why are these rankings different from the team offense DVOA ratings for rushing? Among other reasons, they don’t include quarterbacks or fumbles, long runs are truncated, and a different set of adjustments is used, attempting to isolate line play rather than total team offense.
A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work. A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in Open Field Yards is heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the running game work.
However, it is important to understand that these ratings only somewhat separate the offensive line from the running backs. A team with a very good running back will appear higher no matter how bad their line, and a team with a great line with appear lower if the running back is terrible.
The final three columns represent pass blocking. Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Sack Rate, which gives sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent. Our sack totals may differ slightly from official NFL totals depending on the league’s retroactive statistical adjustments. Please note that quarterbacks bear a lot of responsibility for their own sacks so these are not strictly measures of pass protection.