Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Week 7 of the NFL season starts with a compelling matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) at the New Orleans Saints (3-3). The Jaguars are on a three-game winning streak and are a perfect 2-0 on the road this season. The Saints return home after a brutal stretch of four away games in the past five weeks. They have lost three of their last four games but are just 0.5 game behind Tampa Bay in the bunched-up NFC South.
Each week, I will select my favorite prop bets on the Thursday night slate. You can find all our Week 7 player projections here at FTNBets. All of the available betting lines for this week’s opening matchup are available on our FTNBets Prop Shop, where you can easily shop around for the sportsbook with the best odds on each player or team.
Let’s take a look at my favorite prop for this week’s Thursday night matchup.
Week 7 Player Prop
Calvin Ridley Under 52.5 Receiving Yards
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
The sparkle from Calvin Ridley’s magical Week 1 performance has completely worn off. After a fantastic start to the season with 8 receptions, 101 receiving yards and a touchdown in the opening victory against the Colts, Ridley has struggled to find consistent fantasy production. Per our FTN Weekly Fantasy Finishes Tool, Ridley has finished outside the top-30 wideouts more often than inside.
Teammate Christian Kirk has averaged 9.2 targets per week since Week 2, and tight end Evan Engram has seven or more targets in five straight matchups. I was concerned about Ridley’s production entering this season, after missing essentially two full seasons since playing with Atlanta. He will now face New Orleans, on the road, on a short week, with a quarterback who is still questionable as of this morning. The Saints rank seventh-best in DVOA against opposing WR1s, making this matchup even more difficult.
We project Ridley right at this number, but I’m backing the under on Jacksonville’s leading wideout. This projects to be a low-scoring game, with a total now falling under 40 points at most sportsbooks. Ridley has failed to break 40 yards in four of the first six games, and against a strong New Orleans defense that excels against opposing WR1s, I don’t see him beating this prop, even at such a tempting number. If Lawrence doesn’t play, we will be getting superb value on a number that will fall below 50 yards by kickoff.
