TNF Plays: Best Bets for Thursday Night Football, Week 6

After last week’s “invigorating” Broncos/Colts matchup, the schedule makers have managed to one-up themselves with this week’s Commanders/Bears showdown. Both teams have gotten off to mediocre starts, and a primetime win is definitely important if either of these teams even want to sniff the Wild Card race.

Washington has been in the media this week for coach Ron Rivera’s post-game comments, essentially shifting the blame to quarterback Carson Wentz. While Wentz hasn’t been anything to write home about this season, this team’s issues run much deeper than that, with bottom-tier offensive line and coverage group hopefully looking for opportunities in the XFL. That said, the Bears are not offering much on the other side either. First-round selection Justin Fields hasn’t cleared 210 passing yards this season, despite trailing for a majority of their games. 

Here is my favorite prop bet for Thursday’s game.

Justin Fields Over 7.5 Rushing Attempts

-139, Caesars

The troubling part of the Justin Fields rushing experience is the lack of designed runs. Last season, Fields led the league with a 14% scramble rate in his rookie campaign. Has a new coaching staff changed that? Nope, Fields currently possesses a league-high 17% scramble rate, to put that in context Lamar Jackson is currently sitting at 8%. While Fields may be behind a lot of his fellow mobile quarterbacks in the designed runs department, he’s still getting involved. One of the best ways to explain all the scrambling is that awful pass blocking offensive line. While Fields holds onto the ball and will likely always be sacked at an above-average rate, his 17% is by far the most in the NFL. While Washington might have a pretty lousy secondary, they do have a fairly strong defensive line that just gave the Titans fits last week. 

Washington has only faced one mobile quarterback this season, with Jalen Hurts clearing this number with 9 rush attempts. That game was a blowout, and Hurts didn’t even have to run in the second half. This week is projected to be a close game, and Fields has cleared this number in four of his five games this season, his one miss came with a 7-52 performance against the Giants. Washington’s linebacker core is arguably one of the weakest in the NFL, and I expect the Bears to come in with a gameplan to exploit it.