MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
This week’s matchup gives us a divisional rivalry game between the Patriots and the Bills, who are both in firm control of their destiny for the playoffs. We have an elite offense squaring off against an elite defense, with two top-tier head coaches at the helm. I’m expecting an absolute brawl this week, and I think there are plenty of great spots to cash in on.
Here’s my bet for Thursday’s game.
Josh Allen o41.5 Rush Yards
-114 Unibet
Josh Allen has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this season, and he has been very reliable on the ground. One of the biggest reasons why I don’t bet too many quarterback rushing props during the regular season is because it can be a very volatile market that depends a lot on the game script. One of the key ways we have been able to have success in this market is actually very simple, play mobile quarterbacks in important games. Think about it logically for a moment, when is a quarterback most likely to put his body on the line to fight for those couple extra yards? I believe a divisional primetime game fits that criteria for us, and I think Allen should have success on the ground here.
Additionally, the way you defend the Bills is also beneficial for Allen’s scrambling. With Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs on the outside, this is one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL, meaning the safeties will be playing back to limit explosive plays. Would you rather lose 7-10 yards at a time to Josh Allen scrambling or get beat on a 40-yard deep crosser? The Patriots are top three in pressure rate and man coverage rate, forcing more scrambling opportunities in addition to the designed runs.
Allen has 42+ rush yards in four of the Bills’ five one-score games this season, with his one miss coming against the Chiefs where he went 12-32. It’s very hard for me to see Allen rushing 12 times and not cashing this number ever again. Also, when you look at his production after the bye week, he has 48+ rush yards in four of his last five games, with his one miss coming against the Cleveland Browns. In the one normal game these two teams played last year, Allen ended up recording 64 rush yards. The Patriots allow the fifth-fewest RB rush yards (76.5) and currently have the best Defensive EPA/Play (1st vs. Pass/2nd vs Rush). I expect them to frustrate the Bills offense and Allen to have to carry more of the regular load himself.
