NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
It’s a busy time in the NFL offseason. The draft is over and earlier this week we were able to get our first glimpse of next season’s schedule. Earlier this week I also did an article about the different types of NFL futures bets you can make on Tipico Sportsbook. Today, I’m going to tell you about which ones I like for the upcoming 2021 season now that we have a roadmap of games to be played.
Let’s start at the bottom and work our way up.
AFC division winners
I tried hard to find more meat on the bone here, but the AFC is not the place to find a lot of value. Let’s start with the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs. They project for about 12 wins, while the Chargers at 9 are the only other team in the division projected to be over .500. The Chiefs are -319 on Tipico to win the AFC West. At -319, they probably will win the division, so we bet the house right? Wrong. The NFL is a violent league, and every player is one play away from an injury that keeps them out for a big chunk of the season. I’m not wishing injury on anyone, but before you take out a second mortgage just understand that is the risk. Barring injury to Patrick Mahomes, The Chiefs win this division. We will have better ways to bet on them than here.
The AFC East and North both have clear leaders, but closer races than the West. The Bills project for 10.5 wins, 1.5 clear of Miami and New England. The Ravens project for around 11 wins, 1.5 clear of the Cleveland Browns and/or Pittsburgh Steelers depending on your opinions of those teams. Now, 1.5 wins is a much different discussion than a 3-win gap like the West. If I was going to bet on one of the favorites, I prefer the Ravens at +110 to the Bills at -160. I am not someone who bets on favorites though. If you read the article about futures betting, you will know the value is always in the tier behind the favorites. In this division we have two options. The Browns are +140 and the Steelers are +350. I have more faith in one of those two beating the Ravens than I do in the Dolphins and/or Patriots taking down the Bills. The Steelers are the better value here to me. Cleveland only pays 30 basis points more than the Ravens. If I was going to take a short price, why wouldn’t you just take the Ravens instead? The Steelers though are priced too low. They are only being given a 22% chance to win this division. The Ravens are at 47.6%, the Browns at 41.6%. I do not think the Ravens and Browns deserve to have twice as good a chance to win this division. I agree they have a better chance, but not by this wide a margin. The value here to me is the Steelers at +350.
The last division is one where we can find some value as well: The good old AFC South. I love what the Jaguars did in the draft, but they are years away. This is a two-horse race between the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans. The Colts project better than the Titans, but it is only by a win or a fraction of a win depending on which projections you look at. This one is a coin toss in my eyes. The Colts at -110 is about where they should be as a slight favorite. At that number they have a 52.3% probability of winning. The Titans are at 46.5% probability with a price of +115. If you believe this is a toss-up division like I do, the Colts seem a little overpriced and the Titans a little below. A true 50/50 split would have both at even money, so the value here is with the Titans.
Who will win the AFC?
The Chiefs are the chalk and rightly so. The question is whether they are good chalk or not? They are +250 to win the AFC. When healthy, I do not think anyone beats this team and they have proven that in the last couple years. The second-tier teams here just do not have enough firepower to do it. The only 10-1 shot I give any credence to here is the Titans. The image of Derrick Henry rolling over people in January is etched in my mind. That offense can keep them in any game, and they are a battle-tested group with some superior skill players. At +1500 I like them more than the Broncos, Colts and Dolphins, who are at lower odds. They are worth a small wager at that price. The teams most likely to beat the Chiefs will not be able to do it without an injury. I like the Ravens, Bills and Browns. All of them have a chance to win the AFC, but inevitably the conversation always comes back to IF the Chiefs have an injury or if the Chiefs blow it. The truth is this is the Chiefs conference to lose and if I am taking a short price, I want it on the team that wins if everything goes right for them and still has a chance to win if not everything goes right. To take one of the Ravens, Browns or Bills you have to not only like one of them over the other two, but also expect the Chiefs to screw up. That’s asking a lot to take a short price on.
NFC divisional winners
The AFC was pretty straightforward, but the NFC is the wild wild west. The easiest division is the NFC South. The defending champion Buccaneers are big favorites. Like the Chiefs, they are too short a price to bet on for the division, but also too big a favorite to really seriously have interest in anyone else. They are projected to win the division by 2 or more games. They are deserving chalk but offer no value.
Up to the draft, I would have said the Green Bay Packers were just as chalky as the Bucs to win their division, but Aaron Rodgers really might not be playing. Maybe that situation works itself out, but for the time being they are overvalued if he is not the signal caller. The Lions do not have what it takes to do anything about it. I’m not sure the Chicago Bears do either, but they have a better chance of it if Rodgers really is out. If Rodgers doesn’t play, the Packers still have a great line, a stud No. 1 WR, a good running game and a very good defense. With Rodgers they could be a 12- to 13-win team. Without him you have to think they are at least a couple wins worse. It might still be enough to win the division, but it at least opens the door. The Vikings are the more likely team to walk through that door. They are +250. A Rodgerless Packers team probably still has a chance to win 10 games. The Vikings would need to play well and catch a few breaks to hit ten wins themselves. At +250, they are being given a 28.5% chance. Pre-Rodgersgate, that might have been high. Currently, it is a good value even with the Packers being the likely division winner.
The NFC West is one of the most competitive divisions in football. Some projection systems have all four of these teams above .500. The Cardinals are the consensus worst of the four, but even they project for 7-8 wins. The Rams and 49ers project ahead of the Seahawks, but all three are projected for 9-11 wins. Everywhere you look the projections are different for these teams, so this is one of the most wide-open races we have. If you have a strong opinion on any of these teams, I would say this is a good place to make some money. Personally, I do not have a strong opinion on any of them over the other, so I’m avoiding this one. The Rams are at +175 for a 36.3% probability of winning, the 49ers are at 35.7% and the Seahawks are +260 for a 27.7% implied probability.
The last division here is an absolute crapshoot. The NFC East was the division no one wanted to win last year. The good news is every fanbase thinks it has a chance this year, and every fanbase is right. This division is wide open. The Cowboys are the favorites at +115, the Football Team +240, the Giants are +380 and the Eagles are +450. I was not kidding when I said any of these teams have a chance. Like the NFC West, this is a wide-open division that you can take whatever team you have a strong opinion on. I think the Giants and Eagles offer the most value at their prices on Tipico, so the local fans will be happy about that.
Who will win the NFC?
The Buccaneers are the favorite and frankly, betting against Tom Brady has never really worked out for the doubters. Betting on him though doesn’t offer value. The Bucs are the shortest price on the board at +320. Unlike the AFC, I am not a big fan of the teams priced over +600. If the Bucs do not win this division, the likely winner comes out of the NFC West, since the East and North are a little bit of a mess. The Seahawks are +1200, the Rams are +600, and the 49ers are +550 to win the Super Bowl. Of these teams, the 49ers are the one that stands out the most to me. Fellow Jets fans will remember the massacre at Metlife when the 49ers suffered injury after injury that cost them a promising season. They lost multiple players that game on both sides of the ball and never really got healthy at any point last season. I would have liked a better number, but I still trust them more than the Rams. If the Seahawks had a better defense, I would like to take them at +1200. The Rams and 49ers defenses are so dominant that I can’t figure out how to justify the Seahawks at +1200 over either of them. In the AFC, I like the chalk and one double-digit longshot. In the NFC, I’m fading the big chalk, but not dropping too far down the list looking for the better values.
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