Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Pads cracking, helmets smashing, coaches yelling – football season is about to return.
For your team, Baby Got Dak, the dawn of a new season brings renewed optimism and another chance.
Last year didn’t go exactly as planned. Dismantled by injuries and David Montgomery’s unbearable suckiness (Yes, it’s all my fault.), “Baby” was essentially the Cincinnati Bengals of your hometown league. Week in and week out, you fielded a misfit group of nincompoops who were steamrolled regularly by the competition. If only you would’ve gone the extra dollar on Christian McCaffrey. Damn that Derek. Damn him. His undercutting ranked right up there with the time he “borrowed” your Sega Genesis copy of Bill Walsh College Football only to trade it for five packs of Gobstoppers and a gallon of Mountain Dew.
Vengeance will be yours.
Ohhh yes, vengeance will be yours.
*Maniacal laugh*
With training camps about to open many in the fantasy community are prepping for the single greatest event of the year – draft day. It’s bigger than birthdays, anniversaries, Christmas and even National Doughnut Day. Cheat sheets are in the works. Highlighters brighten deep sleepers. Daily tasks shirk. Every aspiring fantasy player is after one thing and one thing only, bragging rights.
To assist seekers’ quest for domination, below are five undervalued players garnering little respect you should go the extra mile to acquire. Here is this year’s list of Rodney Dangerfield All-Stars:
Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
(QB19, 149.2 ADP)
Move over Joe Montana, this era has its Joe Cool. Earning a victory cigar at the controls of national champ LSU last year, Burrow tallied a godlike 60:6 TD:INT split and 12.5 air yards per attempt. He also ranked No. 2 among all FBS passers in adjusted completion percentage, No. 1 in completed air yards and posted gaudy passer ratings on short (122.9), intermediate (136.8) and deep throws (130.9).
Cincinnati is far from a ragtag group of miscreants. Yes, A.J. Green would probably rupture a muscle walking a docile Chihuahua, but he’s healthy and motivated to regain his form. Pair him with highly reliable slot man Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon, and the weathervane points north.
More encouraging for fantasy devices, Cincinnati’s defense has miles to travel to regain respectability. Last season, it ranked No. 25 in points per game (26.3) and No. 29 in total yards per game (393.7) allowed. An overly generous unit means Burrow could average well north of 30 pass attempts per game. More opportunities mean more chances to throw TD passes, whether in garbage time or not.
Eleven first-year signal callers have eclipsed 22 passing TDs in a season, with Daniel Jones the latest in 2019. Given Burrow’s all-world skill set and environment, he’s a likely candidate to add his name to the list. Roughly 4,000 passing yards, 250-300 rushing yards and 25 combined TDs are in my fearless forecast.
Damien Williams, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
(RB29, 59.8 ADP)
Robbed of Super Bowl MVP honors in February, which during this socially isolated time feels like it was played in the Middle Ages, Williams is arguably the most disrespected person on this list. In many ways he’s the Moses Malone of the gridiron, an accomplished player people automatically write off or just plain forget. It’s possible the bitterness most investors harbor for the rusher will never wash away. Truth be told, he burned many over the regular season’s first half.
However, Williams’ execution from Weeks 9 through the NFL’s pinnacle event matched the jersey color splashed across his torso. The dude was red hot. Over that eight-game stretch, he averaged 98.2 total yards per game, crossed the chalk 10 times, totaled an unreal 3.78 yards after contact per attempt and forced a missed tackle on 24.8% of his touches. And he achieved those gaudy numbers behind an offensive line most sites ranked near the bottom in run blocking. Get over your disdain. Williams delivered the goods.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire is sure to be lusted after in your draft. He’s fresh. He’s exciting. He’s slippery. But all indications suggest the overlooked veteran will begin the season as the primary ball carrier in the most explosive offense in the league. One that is sure to present him with ample favorable fronts (8.8% stack percentage seen in ‘19). Nate Taylor from The Athletic believes Williams could handle the heavy side of a 70-30 split for a sizable chunk of the season. Folks, that’s in the vicinity of 17 touches per game on a squad featuring Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman. Yes, please.
Stop the CEH madness. Williams, who is going some 40 picks after the rookie, is criminally undervalued. Approximately 1,000-1,100 total yards with 6-8 TDs are plausible.
Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks
(RB20, 37.2 ADP)
In this era of abundant timeshares, legit workhorses are rare commodities. Last season only nine RBs accumulated 300 touches. It’s why high-volume rushers are so coveted. They command premiums on par with two-bedroom apartments overlooking Central Park. Pricey.
Still, in most fantasy drafts, Carson will only cost you roughly 1,000 Vietnamese Dong (it’s a currency, dude), a bargain considering what he posted last fall. The true Clydesdale earned 71.5% of the opportunity share in a run-often Seattle offense. On those touches, he trucked over and through the opposition ranking No. 5 in yards after contact per attempt (3.63), No. 4 in total yards created (RB4) and No. 3 in most runs of 15-plus yards (13). Tough to wrangle in the open field, he also forced a missed tackle on 23.5% of his attempts. And he reached those heights working behind an average offensive line. The guy is a modern-day Curtis Martin, an unassuming star who quietly piles up numbers.
Some trepidation regarding Carson’s tender hip is warranted. Though Pete Carroll’s effusive rainbows and sunshine positivity is hard to trust, medical professionals have continuously said the rusher will be ready to rock Week 1 at Atlanta. Barring any setbacks, he’s likely to storm out of the gate for the first of what will surely be many 100 total yards performances. With Rashaad Penny a strong PUP candidate and Carlos Hyde the only real threat behind him, Carson banks 1,200 plus yards and 7-9 TDs for the third consecutive season.
Getting him routinely in Round 4 is the best dirty feeling a fantasy drafter can experience.
DeVante Parker, WR, Miami Dolphins
(WR25, 60.5 ADP)
In the Year of Our Fantasy Overlords 2019, Parker finally delivered on his Round 1 promise, only five years after most believed it would occur. In an instant, the late bloomer went from freckle-faced awkward to runway model gorgeous. His remarkable transformation stunned the fantasy community. Yet, many prospective investors view him as a one-year wonder.
Don’t be so naive.
Etch it in stone. Parker matches or exceeds what he totaled last season (72-1,202-9). Bold? Well, that’s why this follically challenged jackass is the CEO of #TeamHuevos. Glance at the wideout’s secondary metrics from 2019 and you might sing a different tune. His No. 8 standing in contested catch rate, No. 12 rank in average depth of target (14.7 yards) and stellar red-zone production (30 targets, 17 recs, 9 TDs) allowed him to reach Mariah Carey-like octaves. Yes, Preston Williams returns to the mix, but coming off a gnarly knee injury and given his woeful inefficiencies, especially inside the 20 (40.7% red-zone target percentage, 3 TDs), Parker will again be the apple of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s eye. Eventually, Tua Tagovailoa, too, will fall head over heels for the receiver.
After an out-of-left-field WR top-10 season, Parker again sizzles on South Beach. It’s nutty average drafters view him only as a WR3.
Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys
(WR30, 70.3 ADP)
In another prime example of the impacts tied to Shiny New Toy Syndrome, Gallup is getting an unfair shake in drafts. Those who look past the CeeDee Lamb hyperbole will secure a top-24 WR available at a discounted WR3 cost. Book it.
The former Colorado State standout rammed it in a breakout campaign last year. On 112 targets, he hauled in 66 receptions for 1,107 yards and six touchdowns over 14 games. In a proven offense — Dak Prescott ranked QB14 in adjusted completion percentage last fall — and with a suspect defense offering support, the volume will crank again.
Digging deeper, Gallup was dynamite across the advanced analytics board. He ranked top-25 in total air yards, contested catch rate, yards per catch (16.8), average depth of target (13.5) and YAC per reception (5.05). The kid, entering just his third season, is a proven baller. Giddy the heck up.
Porky Pigs are Looney Tunes for Lamb, comically so. He’s a tremendous talent but expected to slide into Randall Cobb’s primary slot role, he’ll minimally impact Gallup’s overall production. Remember, Cobb posted an 83-55-823-3 line last season. Honestly, that’s the rookie’s likely ceiling in Year 1.
If you relish rolling around nude on stacks of Ben Franklins, Dallas’ shining star is someone who’s destined to raise your arousal level. Toss in the ‘Boys’ likely forgiving defense and Gallup’s odds of repeating numbers accumulated in 2019 aren’t farfetched.
