The Report: Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 7

There’s an old saying in fantasy football that goes something like this: “Don’t get cute. Start your studs.” We usually see this cliché surface in December when the fantasy playoffs are in full swing, but it’s a mantra that really should be put into practice every week when you make your start/sit decisions. To be fair, your roster isn’t comprised of all studs. So really, we just want to start our best players.

It’s easy to overthink your fantasy lineups. But the key isn’t making the exact perfect play every time. That’s impossible. Rather, it’s to make the play that has the highest percentage chance of being successful. You won’t be right every time, but you don’t need to be. You just need to be right more often than you’re wrong, and you’ll be a winner over the long haul.

Let’s say you roster DeMario Douglas. He’s coming off a solid Week 6 performance where he ranked eighth among wideouts in fantasy scoring. It’s easy to like that sort of production, but we also need to remember that Douglas is still a WR4 type when it comes to making lineup decisions.

In this case, you wouldn’t want to force Douglas in your starting lineups over someone like Brandon Aiyuk. Yes, Aiyuk wasn’t a standout last week, but he’s still a good player who is one of the top targets in a potent offense. He also comes with a much higher fantasy ceiling. That’s why he’s ranked much higher than Douglas in my rankings for this week.

Will this play be right every time? No. But if we played this week out 100 times, I’m willing to place my chips on Aiyuk being the better play more often than he isn’t. Admittedly, this isn’t the sexiest approach to making start/sit decisions. But it’s one that will help you avoid getting cute with your lineups and win more often than you lose.

Each week in The Report, I’m going to go through every game and give you the information you need to make the most informed decisions possible for your fantasy football rosters. I’ll provide some key about matchups, trends and anything else we need to know about each contest.

Note: The Report will be updated as I finish writing up each game, so be sure to check back throughout the end of the week. Games will be periodically added until Friday afternoons.

Denver @ New Orleans

Bo Nix has shown improvement over the first six weeks of the season. The rookie has tallied three rushing touchdowns, tying for the third most among quarterbacks. However, his passing efficiency has been underwhelming, averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt, which ranks as the third lowest among qualified QBs this year. But given his ability as a runner, Nix is in the superflex conversation this week.

Courtland Sutton continues to be the go-to target for the Nix, leading the team in receptions (21), receiving yards (277) and touchdowns (2). He’s been a reliable red zone threat, accounting for 12 of the team’s 33 receiving touchdowns since the start of last season. Unfortunately, his catch rate (44.7%) is the lowest in the NFL among players with at least 15 receptions. Still, there’s enough meat on the bone to keep starting Sutton as a WR3. As for rookie Devaughn Vele, his 12 receptions are the second-most by a Broncos player in their first two career games since 1970. He set a career-high with 78 receiving yards last week against the Chargers. Vele is trending up, but this offense isn’t to the point where it can sustain more than one fantasy viable receiver.

Javonte Williams has struggled to find the end zone this season, with zero rushing touchdowns. He’s also averaging just 9.8 carries per game and lost two fumbles already this season. That’s surprising considering he only had three fumbles in his prior 37 career games. But he is still the lead back and will be worthy of flex consideration this week.

Spencer Rattler made his first career NFL start in Week 6, completing 22-of-40 passes for 243 yards and a touchdown. His debut showed flashes but was far from perfect. Things could be a bit worse in his second start, as he’s going to have to play without Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee). The latter player has a fairly significant injury that could land him on short-term injured reserve.

Who does that leave in the passing game? Opportunity knocks for rookie Bub Means. The unheralded Day 3 pick out of Pitt recorded his first career touchdown last week, along with five receptions for 45 yards. Those numbers show promise, but it’s wise not to get too cute here. Means is just a desperation flex option.

With so many injuries, look for the Saints to lean heavily on Alvin Kamara. The veteran has been a touchdown machine this season and is tied for the most rushing touchdowns in the league with six through six games. That matches the most in a season’s first six games by any Saints player. He’s also leading running backs with 28 catches this year and already amassed 666 scrimmage yards, the third most in the NFL. The Saints look like they’ll have Kendre Miller back in the mix, but the second-year man is no threat to Kamara’s workload.