The Report: Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 12

Making fantasy football start/sit decisions doesn’t have to be a complicated process. Simply start the best players and there you have it. OK, I know. Easier said than done. But there is a way to streamline your process: Don’t overthink it.

One of the greatest things about fantasy sports is this activity allows you to dive deep into the stats. But sometimes this abundance of information can cause us to overload and weight things more heavily than we should.

Paralysis by overanalysis.

For example, I’ve seen this question a lot: “Should I start Wide Receiver X because my opponent his quarterback?” On the surface, the logic is easy to understand. But this line of thinking overlooks the prime objective of fantasy sports: to score the most points. So, in this example you would start Receiver X if he’s better than all of you other options, but he rides the pine if he isn’t.

Obviously, none of us know who is going to score the most points each week in advance of the games, but we can establish a range of potential outcomes. If a game is played 100 times, how many times will Player A outscore Player B. From there, you start the player who scores the most points more than 50% of the time.

Of course, there are many factors that will impact that range of outcomes. One that often gets the most attention is the player’s matchup. But there’s an argument to be made that we often focus too much on the matchup. Sure, the matchup will affect fantasy output, but it’s something that should only move the player up or down just slightly in your rankings.

You’ve probably heard the phrase “start your studs” many times before, and this is wise advice. But a better piece of advice is to “start your best players.”

Each week in The Report, I’m going to go through every game and give you the information you need to make the most informed decisions possible for your fantasy football rosters. I’ll provide some key about matchups, trends and anything else we need to know about each contest.

Note: The Report will be updated as I finish writing up each game, so be sure to check back throughout the end of the week. Games will be periodically added until Friday afternoons.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland

Russell Wilson has made an immediate impact as the Steelers’ starting quarterback, leading the team to a 4-0 record in his first four starts. This marks the third-longest winning streak by a quarterback to start their Steelers career. In addition to his perfect record, Wilson has thrown for 942 yards in these games, setting a new benchmark for passing yards by a Steelers player in their first four starts. Of course, the weather conditions in this game could put a damper on Wilson’s passing numbers, so it’s best to only use him as a superflex option.

George Pickens has flourished with Wilson under center, recording 70 or more receiving yards in every game that Wilson has started this season. Pickens has also found the end zone twice this season, with both touchdowns coming during Wilson’s starts. Despite the weather, Pickens is still a rock-solid front-end WR2 play.

Najee Harris has been a consistent force on the ground, rushing for a touchdown in three of his last five games. Harris has also been a workhorse, carrying the ball 18 or more times in four straight games and rushing for 50 or more yards in five consecutive contests. He’s a consistent RB2 even with Jaylen Warren back in the mix. Warren is only a flex play here.

Jameis Winston had a standout performance last week for the Browns, throwing for 395 yards. That’s the most by a Browns quarterback in a game since Baker Mayfield went for 397 in 2018. But like Wilson, it’s just too risky to consider Winston anything more than a superflex option here.

Jerry Jeudy has hit his stride recently, recording 70 or more receiving yards in three straight games. This recent stretch of productivity comes after he had just two games with 70 or more receiving yards earlier in the season. Likewise, Elijah Moore is coming off a solid Week 11 performance. The Browns also have Cedric Tillman who has 24 receptions for 302 yards and three touchdowns over his last four games. Unfortunately, there’s only one football. Given the play of this trio, is hard to find a clear preferred option. Instead, it’s best to consider all three of them as flex plays with upside.

David Njoku has caught five or more passes in five straight games. He has also recorded 60 or more receiving yards in four of his last five games and has scored two touchdowns in his last four outings. Unlike the wideouts, we can start Njoku as a top 10 option with confidence.

Nick Chubb has struggled to find his usual efficiency on the ground this season, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. That’s by far the lowest of his career. Chubb, who has never finished a season with fewer than 5.0 yards per carry. Given his lack of efficiency and the potential for the Browns to be playing from behind, it’s tough to trust Chubb as anything more than a flex option.