Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles game for Week 9.
Week 9 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
PHI -3, O/U 46
Pace: DAL: 27.5 sec/snap (19th), PHI: 27.4 sec/snap (18th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Teams are calling pass 67.4% of the time against the Eagles, the highest rate in football.
- The Eagles are allowing a league-high 10.4 targets per game to opposing pass-catchers lined up in the slot.
- CeeDee Lamb has lined up in the slot 62% of the time this season.
- A.J. Brown has 125-plus receiving yards in six consecutive games.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott was brilliant last week, completing 25-of-31 passes for 304 yards, four touchdowns and one interception against the Rams. He’s now finished as the QB1 and QB3 in fantasy over his last two games, as the Cowboys have also utilized Prescott in the run game more, too. I fully expect 40-plus pass attempts from Prescott this week, regardless of gamescript. Teams simply don’t run the football against the Eagles because it’s almost a wasted down. Instead, opposing offenses are calling pass 67.4% of the time against the Eagles, the highest rate in football. 79% of the yardage gained against Philadelphia this season has come through the air, the highest rate in the NFL, while they are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Dak is an easy QB1 against his division rival.
Running Back
It has been a very frustrating stretch for Tony Pollard, who is the RB22 in fantasy since Week 2. He hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1, and the efficiency has come way down. Of course, it would help if the Cowboys played a normal game this year, as most of their games have been blowouts that have featured multiple defensive scores. I’d have a hard time sitting Pollard, but I am not expecting much this week. For starters, I don’t think the Cowboys run the ball very often. And when they do, I don’t expect much out of the run game. The Eagles are allowing a league-low 65.5 rushing yards per game, as well as the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (14.2). Hopefully Pollard can get work in the passing game here. He’s a mid-range RB2 at best.
Wide Receiver
After a bit of a quiet first seven weeks of the year, CeeDee Lamb reminded everyone how good he is last week. Lamb dominated Los Angeles, catching 12-of-14 targets for 158 yards and two touchdowns. His 41% target share was easily a season-high, as Dallas did a better job of moving him around the formation on Sunday. A second consecutive spike week is very possible here, as he faces Philadelphia’s massive pass funnel defense that is surrendering a league-high 10.4 targets per game to opposing pass-catchers lined up in the slot. Lamb, meanwhile, has played from the slot around 62% of the time this season. And in his lone game against the Eagles with Prescott under center last year, Lamb caught 10 passes for 120 yards and a pair of touchdowns, finishing as the WR1 that week.
Meanwhile, both Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup are desperation WR4 plays at best this week. Cooks has now found the end zone in two straight games, but only has a 13% target share during that span. Gallup, meanwhile, is at a 21% target share over the last two games and has been much more viable against man coverage than zone. So far this year, Gallup has a 21.3% target share against man coverage, but a 10.8% target share against zone. The Eagles, meanwhile, are playing man coverage 36% of the time this year, the sixth-highest rate in football.
Tight End
It has been great to see Jake Ferguson’s route involvement climb lately. He’s been over 80% route participation in each of his last two games, while he continues to see high-value targets in this offense. Ferguson hauled in his end zone target last game, giving him 11 red zone looks on the season. He is a strong TE1 against a Philadelphia defense that just allowed 6-44-1 to Logan Thomas last week.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts may not be 100% healthy, but it didn’t stop him from torching Washington’s defense to the tune of 319 yards and four touchdowns last weekend. The QB2 in fantasy, Hurts has now finished as a top-five signal caller in five games, including each of the last four weeks. I do think we might see less of his rushing production due to him not being 100% healthy. He only rushed for six yards last week and scrambled just once, while the Eagles called just three designed runs for him. And sure, Dallas’ defense is tough. But you are starting Hurts every single week.
Running Back
D’Andre Swift was having a bad game last week until the Eagles, in an effort to put the game away, faked their patented quarterback sneak play and instead tossed it to Swift, who walked into the end zone with less than two minutes to play. It saved his day. but he continues to see most of the work in this backfield, averaging just over 20 touches per game since Week 2. We also continue to see Philadelphia throw to the running backs more this season, as their running back target share has jumped from a league-low 12.1% in 2022 to 20.5% in 2023. And since Week 4, Swift is averaging a solid 5.2 targets per game. He remains a rock solid, low-end RB1 against the Cowboys.
Wide Receiver
There is simply no stopping A.J. Brown. He caught all eight of his targets for 130 yards and two more touchdowns last week, giving him at least 125 receiving yards in each of his last six outings. Since Week 2, Brown is sporting a 32% target share, while drawing a target on 27% of his routes. He has handled 47.8% of Philadelphia’s air yards this season, the second-highest rate among all wide receivers. Since Week 3, his worst games has been six catches for 127 yards and zero touchdowns. This Cowboys pass defense is solid but hasn’t quite been the same since losing Trevon Diggs in the secondary. You are obviously starting Brown, while DeVonta Smith remains a WR2 with upside. It was great to see him get back on track last week, catching all seven of his targets for 99 yards and a touchdown, his first since Week 2.
Tight End
Finally, Dallas Goedert is a must-start tight end. The Eagles are a pretty easy team, right? Just start everyone. Goedert’s involvement has been much more consistent as of late, sporting a solid 19% target share since Week 3. He still ranks second among all tight ends in screen targets with 10, while the Cowboys have been about league average against the position so far this season.
