NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers game for Week 3.
Week 3 Fantasy Football Breakdown: New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers
SF -10.5, O/U 45.5
Pace: NYG: 26.3 sec/snap (14th), SF: 29.8 sec/snap (31st)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Brandon Aiyuk saw a 23% target share when blitzed last season.
- Meanwhile, Deebo Samuel’s target share when blitzed was just 14.2%.
- Christian McCaffrey has played 100% of San Francisco’s third downs this season.
- Saquon Barkley has handled 87.9% of the Giants’ running back rushing attempts through two weeks.
- That’s the second-highest rate in the NFL.
- Daniel Jones’ 11 designed rush attempts are the second-most among all quarterbacks.
Quarterback
Down 20-0 at halftime to the worst team in football, Daniel Jones and the Giants turned it up in the second half. Jones ultimately finished the game with 321 yards, two touchdowns and an interception on 37 pass attempts, while adding 59 yards and a touchdown on nine carries. It was just Jones’ third 300-yard game since the start of last season, and he faces a much more difficult test on Thursday against the 49ers. However, his presence in the run game continues to give him a strong floor, as Jones has now rushed for 43 and 59 yards through two weeks.
And dating back to last season, Jones has rushed for at least 30 yards in 11 of his last 18 games. His 11 designed runs are the second-most among quarterbacks, and with Saquon Barkley suddenly sidelined, you’d think Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka would continue to call Jones’ number. Still, on the road in San Francisco, Jones should be treated as a mid-range QB2 at best.
Running Back
Sigh.
In the final moments of New York’s comeback victory last week, Saquon Barkley suffered an ankle sprain that will likely sideline him for a few weeks. Through two weeks of play, Barkley has handled 87.9% of the Giants running back carries, the second-highest rate in the league, so there is clearly a huge opportunity for both Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell for the time being. Unfortunately, they get one of the worst possible matchups for a running back in all of fantasy, traveling to San Francisco to take on the 49ers.
Sure, Kyren Williams just got them for a pair of touchdowns, but it mostly came off immense volume in the passing game, hauling in 6-of-10 targets for 48 yards and a touchdown. Barkley has 11 targets and nine receptions through two weeks, so there could be an opportunity for Breida in the passing game, which is what he’ll need to make his day. The 49ers have allowed just two running backs to reach 60 rushing yards against them since the start of last season, while opponents are averaging just 1.43 points per drive against San Francisco so far this season, the eighth-best rate in football.
There was one game last year where the Giants rested their starters. With Barkley sidelined in Week 18, Brightwell and Breida essentially split work, with Brightwell carrying the ball 11 times for 60 yards, while Breida had just four carries for 28 yards but added seven receptions on eight targets. Of course, no one played for the Giants in that game, so the offense was certainly different. But I don’t think this is a situation where one running back handles 75-80% of the work. We are desperate for running back help in fantasy, and while I’m fine with adding a Giants running back, I’d hesitate starting either on Thursday night.
Wide Receiver
The Giants continue to use five different wide receivers, which makes it tough to feel great starting anyone, especially when the focal point of the passing attack is Darren Waller. Isaiah Hodgins caught 4-of-5 targets for 40 yards and a touchdown against the Cardinals, while Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt both eclipsed 60 receiving yards. I don’t envision the Giants having a ton of success on offense, but if they do, it’ll likely come through the air. Last week, both Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell were productive against the 49ers, and so far this season, a healthy 79.2% of the yardage surrendered by San Francisco has been via the pass, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. Still, Hodgins and Slayton are both underwhelming flex plays at best on Thursday.
Tight End
In Week 1, the Giants pretty much lost the game by halftime. And between the game script and Waller’s hamstring, the Giants played it safe with their star tight end. Despite being listed on the injury report with a hamstring injury, Darren Waller hardly left the field during the first half, playing 33-of-37 snaps through the first two quarters. However, with the game out of reach early and Waller not quite 100% healthy, the Giants wisely took him off the field, as he played just five snaps in the third quarter and zero in the fourth.
This past week, however, Waller caught 6-of-8 targets for 76 yards last week. He said he continues to deal with a hamstring issue but wasn’t limited at all, logging about 90% of the offensive snaps, while running a route on 38 of Daniel Jones’ 44 dropbacks (86.3%). Through two weeks, Waller is second among all tight ends with a 20.3% target share. It is a brutal matchup for Waller, as San Francisco has allowed just five tight end touchdowns since the start of last season. Still, Waller remains a must-start fantasy tight end.
Quarterback
The final stat line looks fine (17-for-25, 206 yards, 0 INT), but Brock Purdy left a lot of fantasy points on the table last week. He missed multiple deep passes to both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, while his “touchdown pass” to Samuel was later changed to a run. Purdy’s QB23 finish was easily his worst since taking over at quarterback last season, though he still has six top-15 finishes over his eight regular season starts. He’ll remain a top-15 play at home against a struggling Giants defense that is coughing up a gaudy 2.84 points per drive, the fourth-most in football.
Teams are scoring points on nearly 53% of drives against the Giants this year, and we just watched Joshua Dobbs finish as the QB5 in fantasy against them last week. Purdy was also fantastic against the blitz last year, completing 62.5% of his passes and averaging 8.1 yards per attempt against the blitz. We know Don Martindale wants to bring the pressure, but the defense just hasn’t been getting it done so far. Purdy has top-10 upside this week.
Running Back
The 49ers offense played 57 snaps in Week 2.
Christian McCaffrey was on the field for all 57 of them.
It has been a dominant start to the season for McCaffrey, who rushed for 116 yards and a touchdown last week. That gives him consecutive games with 100-plus yards and a touchdown, while he has played every single third-down snap through two weeks. After failing to reach 70% of the snaps in any game Elijah Mitchell played in last season, McCaffrey has now played 92% of the snaps so far this season.
He likely makes it a third straight 100-yard outing against a reeling Giants run defense that just surrendered 100 yards and a touchdown to James Conner. And in Week 1, Tony Pollard rushed for 70 yards and a pair of scores. Since the start of last season, no team in football has allowed more 100-yard rushing games than the Giants (14). Last season, 16.8% of the runs against the Giants gained 10 or more yards, the highest rate in all of football. So far this year, 15.2% of the runs against this unit have gained 10-plus yards. McCaffrey is the best player in all of fantasy football, and if you managed to draft him third or even fourth overall this summer, congratulations.
Wide Receiver
Brandon Aiyuk is battling through a shoulder injury, and with this being a short week, there is a chance he doesn’t play on Thursday. Aiyuk was in and out of the game last week, ultimately playing just over 52% of the snaps. If he plays, you are starting him as a rock-solid WR2, especially against a Giants defense that loves to play man coverage and blitz, which is the ideal scenario for Aiyuk.
According to FTN Data, Aiyuk posted a 23% target share against the blitz last season and so far has seen a whopping 40% target share when facing man coverage. And we know Aiyuk has always had more favorable splits against man coverage, as opposed to zone. In 2022, Aiyuk saw a 29% target share against man coverage, but that rate fell down to just 16% against zone defenses. So far this season, the Giants have played man coverage 33% of the time, a top-five rate in the league. Of course, keep an eye on his status. But if he plays, it wouldn’t shock me to see Aiyuk have a similar performance from Week 1.
A potential Aiyuk absence would certainly help Deebo Samuel, who was good last week, hauling in 6-of-9 targets for 63 yards, while adding 38 yards and a touchdown on five carries. His domination of the Rams continued on Sunday, and although his splits aren’t as favorable against man coverage, that all goes out the window if Aiyuk is sidelined. He would be in line for 7-10 targets against an inexperienced secondary, on top of the 3-5 rushing attempts he most likely sees. An uptick in volume would be great, but especially considering Samuel posted a target share of just 18.1% against man coverage last season and just 1.7 yards per route run. Samuel and Aiyuk are both strong WR2 plays this week, but if Aiyuk can’t play, Samuel pushes into WR1 territory.
Tight End
Once again, George Kittle’s floor is frustratingly low when this 49ers offense is at full strength.
In games where McCaffrey, Samuel and Aiyuk played fully last year, Kittle posted a modest 16% target share. And through two games this season, Kittle’s target share is 17.3%, which is better, but still middling. He’s been targeted on 18% of his routes run, while ranking just 26th among all tight ends in routes run (50). Of course, you are still starting him because his spike weeks are still as evident as any tight end, and there is more likelihood of a spike week if Aiyuk is out for San Francisco.
