Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals game for Week 2.
Week 2 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Total: 45.5, CIN -3
Pace: BAL: 28.8 sec/snap (25th), CIN: 26.0 sec/snap (13th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Zay Flowers’ 47.6% target share led all players in Week 1.
- His 2.8-yard average depth of target was the fourth-lowest mark of the week.
- Flowers was targeted five times off screen passes.
- He forced an impressive four missed tackles on nine receptions.
- In 2022, screen passes made up 6.8% of Lamar Jackson’s pass attempts.
- In Week 1, he threw a screen pass on 7-of-22 attempts (31.8%).
- Tee Higgins led the NFL with a 63.9% percentage of team air yards in Week 1.
Quarterback
Despite the Ravens having a massive team total last week, Lamar Jackson failed to score a touchdown. He was efficient, completing 17-of-22 passes, but the Ravens scored three rushing touchdowns from inside the five-yard line, while the revamped Houston pass rush pressured him on 40% of his dropbacks. Baltimore wasn’t pushed to score in this game, so we didn’t get to see the pass-happy Todd Monken offense that had been teased throughout the offseason, but that could change with J.K. Dobbins out for the season. There was, however, more of an emphasis on the quick passing game, as Jackson threw seven screen passes Sunday, making up almost 32% of his attempts. Last year, screen passes made up just 6.8% of Jackson’s attempts, so there appears to be a shift. Jackson added 38 rushing yards on six attempts and now faces a Cincinnati defense that just allowed Deshaun Watson to rush for 45 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. I expect Jackson to throw the ball more than 22 times this week and it is difficult to not be excited about his pass-catching options, especially if tight end Mark Andrews returns. I know he disappointed in Week 1, but Jackson remains a clear top-10 signal caller ahead of this AFC North showdown.
Running Back
Sigh.
J.K. Dobbins was going to win fantasy leagues this season. In the first half, Dobbins played 23-of-29 snaps for the Ravens, while scoring a touchdown. He was even seeing usage in the passing game, hauling in 2-of-3 targets. But unfortunately, he suffered a torn Achilles, ending his season. It is heartbreaking for Dobbins, who just made his way back from a torn ACL and MCL. Once Dobbins left the game on Sunday, Justice Hill and Gus Edwards split work, both seeing eight carries, Hill, however, saw the high-value touches, seeing two carries from inside the 5-yard line, converting both into touchdowns. He was inefficient otherwise and we know Edwards has been very efficient in this offense in the past. Baltimore is going to activate Melvin Gordon for this game, and it is also entirely possible that the Ravens give a free agent running back a call.
Hill played 7-of-11 third downs Sunday and should remain the passing-down back going forward, which likely makes him the preferred option over Edwards. If you need help at running back, Hill and Edwards should absolutely be added, though I wouldn’t trust anyone from this backfield as anything more than a flex play, especially if the Ravens finally do lean on the pass going forward. Baltimore’s offensive line is also banged up, as Ronnie Stanley and Tyler Linderbaum are both considered week-to-week.
Wide Receiver
I know Mark Andrews didn’t play Sunday, but Zay Flowers is clearly the WR1 for the Ravens. Flowers’ NFL debut was a joy to watch. He caught nine passes for 78 yards against the Texans, while seeing 10 of Baltimore’s 21 targets for a 47.6% target share. Flowers was targeted on 35.7% of his routes and also received two carries, as the Ravens got him involved in many ways. I could absolutely see Flowers continue to be used as an extension of the run game, too, given his incredible start/stop ability. There definitely wasn’t any downfield usage for Flowers, who posted the fourth-lowest average depth of target among qualified wide receivers in Week 1 (2.8 yards), but he made plays with the ball in his hands, forcing four missed tackles on nine receptions. Half of his targets came off screen passes and while this usage obviously isn’t sustainable, Flowers has clearly ascended into WR3 territory for fantasy. Cincinnati’s pass defense is strong, allowing the third-lowest passing touchdown rate in 2022 (3.0%) but Flowers’ usage is very encouraging.
When the Ravens were in two-wide sets, it was Flowers and Odell Beckham on the field. Rashod Bateman, meanwhile, only played in 11 personnel, and actually split time with Nelson Agholor. Bateman only played 39% of the snaps, catching three passes for 35 yards. Perhaps the Ravens wanted to limit Bateman, who has been recovering from a foot injury. I’d expect Bateman to play more going forward and eventually play close to 100% of the snaps when the Ravens are in 11 personnel, but I don’t see how you can start him in fantasy right now. Beckham, meanwhile, caught just two passes for 37 yards but ran a route on 100% of Baltimore’s dropbacks in his Ravens debut. He’s on the flex radar in deeper formats.
Tight End
With Mark Andrews sidelined last week, I penciled in Isaiah Likely as a top-seven fantasy tight end. I was wrong.
The process was right at least, as Likely logged 72% of the snaps and ran a route on 23-of-30 dropbacks (77%). It resulted in just one catch for four yards, which came on the second play of the game. If Andrews is back in the lineup this week, Likely returns to most waiver wires, while Andrews returns to starting fantasy lineups. But if he is out again, I do believe you can go back to Likely, especially if Andrews is your starting tight end. His opportunity was encouraging and faces a Bengals defense that allowed the seventh-most targets (7.4) and eighth-most receptions (5.1) per game to opposing tight ends in 2022. And to start the 2023 season, the Bengals have allowed a touchdown reception to Cleveland tight end Harrison Bryant.
Quarterback
Joe Burrow must not like Week 1.
After struggling in Week 1 last year, Burrow couldn’t get anything going during the opening weekend this season, completing just 14-of-31 passes for 82 scoreless yards. The weather was awful in Cleveland, which certainly played a role, while Burrow missed all of the preseason with a calf injury. It was just an awful day for the Bengals offense, which will more than likely be an outlier by the end of the season. He should bounce back at home against a Baltimore defense that will already be without safety Marcus Williams, but could also be without Marlon Humphrey, who missed Week 1 with a foot injury. Burrow wasn’t great against the Ravens last season, averaging just 14.9 fantasy points per game in two meetings. Baltimore, like many teams against the Bengals, ran a ton of two-high safety looks, though Burrow was much improved against the defense as the season progressed. His 12 passing touchdowns against two-high looks were tied for the most in the league last year. Burrow and the entire Bengals offense, although not in a stellar matchup, should get back on track.
Running Back
Joe Mixon played about 63% of the snaps Sunday, while handling 16-of-21 running back touches. In 2022, Mixon logged just 23.5% of Cincinnati’s third downs, but with Samaje Perine in Denver, I thought that rate would skyrocket. It is obviously incredibly early but so far in 2023, that is not the case. Mixon played just one third down snap this weekend, while Trayveon Williams and Chris Evans combined for 13 third down snaps. Luckily, Mixon still saw five targets and should be in line for 18-20 opportunities each and every week, which means he should remain in your starting lineup. I had him as a top-12 running back last season but he’ll be in the RB2 range this week against Roquan Smith and the Ravens. After Baltimore traded for Smith last season, they were an elite defense, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry. And we just saw them limit Dameon Pierce to just 38 yards on 11 carries.
Wide Receiver
Honestly, we can just throw last week’s game away. Burrow won’t ever fail to reach 100 passing yards in a game again, while the weather won’t be nearly as problematic as it was in Cleveland. Ja’Marr Chase led the way with five catches for 39 yards on a team-high nine targets, while Tee Higgins somehow failed to haul in any of his eight targets. The opportunities were certainly there for Higgins, who was responsible for 63.9% of Cincinnati’s air yards in Week 1, the highest rate among all wide receivers. His four deep targets trailed only Tyreek Hill but only 19 of Burrow’s 31 pass attempts were deemed on target. You can’t buy-low on Chase or Higgins because, well, no one is dumb enough to be worried about the Bengals passing attack.
They should get going this week, especially if Marlon Humphrey is sidelined. If he is out again, the Ravens will be rolling out Ronald Darby, Brandon Stephens and Ar’Darius Washington as their top three defensive backs. Stephens allowed eight receptions on 10 targets last week and struggled last season, allowing a target every 5.2 coverage snaps, the 11th-worst rate among qualified corners in 2022. Darby, meanwhile, will have to defend Higgins and Chase at times, which is a really tough matchup considering Darby is just 5-foot-11 and 193 pounds. Higgins, for what it’s worth, is 6-4, 216. This is a really strong bounceback spot for the Cincinnati wideouts, especially since we just saw Nico Collins and Robert Woods combine for 12 catches for 137 yards.
Finally, if you are really hurting at wide receiver, Tyler Boyd also finds himself in a good spot. He played 84% of the snaps and ran a route on 32-of-34 dropbacks. Boyd was only targeted three times because, well, his usage has admittedly been awful when Chase and Higgins are active. In 11 full games with Chase and Higgins on the field last year, Boyd averaged around 4.5 targets per game, while sporting a target share of 13%. But the Ravens have been generous to opposing slot wide receivers, which is where Boyd lined up 97% of the time in Week 1. Last season, Baltimore coughed up the third-most targets (7.7), the most receptions (5.7), fifth-most receiving yards (64.5) and fifth-most fantasy points per game (13.7) to opposing slot wideouts last year.
Tight End
In his first game with the Bengals, Irv Smith only played when the team was in 11 personnel, but this team runs as many three-wide sets as anyone so that’s OK. What is more important is the fact that he ran a route on 71% of dropbacks and saw five targets. His usage won’t be high or consistent enough for Smith to really ever surpass streaming territory, especially when this offense is at full strength.
