Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons game for Week 12.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Breakdown: New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons
NO -1, O/U 42.5
Pace: NO: 25.1 sec/snap (2nd), ATL: 26.4 sec/snap (11th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Running backs have a 23.8% target share with Desmond Ridder at quarterback this season.
- Rashid Shaheed had a season-high 22% target share with Michael Thomas sidelined in Week 10.
- Alvin Kamara leads all running backs with a 21% target share this season.
- He has seen a carry or a target on 35% of his snaps, the sixth-highest rate in football.
- Chris Olave has a 31% target share against man coverage this season.
Quarterback
As of right now, Derek Carr remains in the concussion protocol. His shoulder appears to be fine, but he’ll have to clear the protocol in order to play Sunday. If he can’t play, Jameis Winston will start at quarterback for the Saints. Winston threw for 122 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in relief of Carr back in Week 10, while averaging an insane 15.5-yard average depth of target, which isn’t too surprising. Prior to Week 10, Carr had finished as a top-12 fantasy signal caller in three of his last four games and if he is active, he’s a very strong QB2 against an Atlanta defense that has allowed six touchdown passes of 20-plus air yards, the third-most in the league. And while Carr is certainly checking the ball down a lot, we have also still seen 14.4% of his passes travel 20-plus yards, the sixth-highest rate in football. That would obviously bode well for Winston, too, who would be a solid streaming candidate if he starts, especially with the Falcons allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Back
After seeing weird usage in Week 9, Alvin Kamara got back up to 74% of the snaps and 64% of the team rush attempts in Week 10. With the Saints falling behind early, he only carried the ball nine times, but made up for it by catching all seven of his targets. Kamara comfortably leads all running backs with a 21% target share on the season, while seeing either a carry or a target on 35% of his snaps, the sixth-highest rate in the league. The Falcons have been strong against the run this season, allowing just 3.9 yards per carry, while stuffing 20% of carries at or behind the line of scrimmage. He may not rush for 4.5 yards per carry here, but Kamara should see plenty of work, especially with Michael Thomas sidelined. And if Carr is under center, it is even better for Kamara, as the veteran quarterback, despite having a bye, has 13 more check downs than the next closest player.
Wide Receiver
If Carr starts at quarterback, Chris Olave is a must-start wide receiver. If Winston starts, Olave is a borderline top-10 wideout. Olave was doing nothing in Week 10, but once Winston entered the game, he went off. Olave caught 5-of-8 targets for nearly 80 yards and a touchdown with Winston in Week 10 and while Carr is still a very solid quarterback, Winston just gives Olave more consistent opportunities to make plays, especially down the field. He still leads the league in deep targets with 26, while his 1,296 air yards are the second-most in football. With a solid 26% target share already, Olave should continue to see 8-12 targets with Thomas sidelined. He is posting a 31% target share against man coverage this season, while averaging 1.88 fantasy points per target against the defense. Atlanta, meanwhile, is deploying man coverage 37% of the time, a top-three rate in the league. You are starting Olave regardless, but I do think he has a bit more upside if we see Winston start this week.
With Thomas playing just two snaps in Week 10, Rashid Shaheed saw a 22% target share, his highest rate in a game this season. He also ran a route on 81% of dropbacks and saw nine targets. Shaheed is a borderline WR3 this week, and potentially for the next four weeks with Thomas out. We already discussed how Atlanta gives up deep passing touchdowns, while only Washington is allowing more fantasy points per target off go routes this season (3.54). That bodes well for Olave, who ranks third in the league with 17 targets off go routes, but also for Shaheed, as go routes have made up 16% of his targets this season.
Tight End
I can’t guarantee how he is going to get there. It could be in the run game, through the air or even throwing the ball. But Taysom Hill is a top-10 fantasy tight end. Hill has at least four targets in four of his last five games, while averaging 5.4 rushing attempts per game during that span. And since Week 6, Hill has four carries from inside the five-yard line, the 10th-most in all of football. He won’t run more routes than Juwan Johnson, but Hill sees so many high value touches, presenting him with so much touchdown upside, which is massive for a tight end position that tends to be touchdown or bust to start with.
Quarterback
The Falcons have decided to go back to Desmond Ridder for this week, as well as the rest of the season. In his full starts Weeks 1-7, Ridder averaged just over 16 fantasy points per game and 0.43 fantasy points per dropback. We have seen him rush for about 17 yards per game, while scoring four rushing touchdowns, and now he faces a man-heavy Saints defense that is actually allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks on the year (28.7). There isn’t much of a ceiling here but if you are desperate, you could do worse than Ridder as your QB2 in superflex leagues.
Running Back
I do believe the quarterback change could be good for Bijan Robinson. In Ridder’s seven full starts this season, running backs have accounted for a healthy 23.8% of Atlanta’s targets, as he doesn’t throw the ball down the field as much as Taylor Heinicke. Prior to the bye week, Robinson tied his season-high for touches in a game with 23, while scoring a touchdown from inside the 10-yard line, which is great to see. Hopefully he holds onto that role the rest of the season, and we have seen rookies take on more of a role following their bye week. There is still a chance that Tyler Allgeier takes the goal line work, but I have Robinson as a high-end RB2 against the Saints Sunday.
Wide Receiver
This is a really tough matchup for Drake London, who is a boom/bust WR3 for me. New Orleans is allowing just 48.2 receiving yards per game to opposing number-one wideouts, the second fewest in the league. London does have a 29% target share against man coverage this season, however, he ranks just 52nd among qualified wide receivers in yards per route run against the defense (1.46). London certainly has upside, but I think the floor could be frighteningly low here. He’s my WR38 for the week.
WRs I’d start over London: Josh Downs, Rashid Shaheed, Odell Beckham (if active).
Tight End
The tight ends will continue to see a ton of work in the passing game. On the season, Atlanta has targeted the position a league-high 35.5% of the time. If we could combine Kyle Pitts and Jonnu Smith’s usage, we’d have a top-five fantasy tight end. But as it stands, Pitts is a low-end TE1, while Smith is a mid-range TE2.
