Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the New England Patriots and New York Giants game for Week 12.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Breakdown: New England Patriots @ New York Giants
NE -3.5, O/U 33.5
Pace: NE: 25.2 sec/snap (4th), NYG: 27.5 sec/snap (21st)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Saquon Barkley has seen either a carry or a target on 41.8% of snaps this season, the highest rate among running backs.
- Since Week 6, Barkley is averaging 24 touches per game.
- Demario Douglas has a 25% target share over his last three games.
This game is pretty simple.
Mac Jones is likely going to start at quarterback Sunday, but after being benched again late in Week 10, he could easily lose his job if he struggles again against the Giants. The only players I am considering from New England are Rhamondre Stevenson and Demario Douglas. Stevenson got a fantastic workload before the Patriots’ bye in Week 10, rushing for 88 yards on 20 carries and adding three receptions. The usage in the passing game has been strong as of late, as Stevenson is averaging 5.4 targets per game over his last five contests. This is a good matchup for Stevenson, as the Giants are allowing a run of 10-plus yards on 14.9% of attempts this season, the second-highest rate in the NFL. They are also allowing 1.71 yards before contact per rush, the eighth-worst mark in football. Ezekiel Elliott will continue to play 35% of the snaps but Stevenson will continue to play in two-minute situations (77%) and most third downs (73%).
I’m also fine with Demario Douglas as a flex option in PPR formats. Due to injuries, he has emerged as New England’s top wide receiver, averaging 7.6 targets per game over his last three contests, while sporting a healthy 25% target share during that span.
For the Giants, meanwhile, despite Tommy DeVito’s impressive game against Washington last week, Saquon Barkley remains the only player from this team that you should be starting in fantasy, especially with zero teams on bye. Barkley has seen either a carry or a target on 41.8% of snaps this season, the highest rate among running backs. And since Week 6, Barkley is averaging 24 touches per game.
