NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns game for Week 10.
Week 10 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
BAL -6, O/U 37.5
Pace: CLE: 26.3 sec/snap (9th), BAL: 27.9 sec/snap (22nd)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Amari Cooper is averaging 95.5 receiving yards and 18.1 PPR points per game in four games where Deshaun Watson has played at least 30 snaps.
- He is also averaging about five fewer points per game when on the road since the start of last season.
- Jerome Ford played 63% of the snaps on Sunday.
- Gus Edwards is second in the league with five carries from inside the 5-yard line since Week 7.
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson started and finished the game on Sunday, a good sign for his health. He attempted four deep passes, completing two of them for 108 yards, and while he didn’t look incredible, Watson at least showed that his shoulder doesn’t appear to be an issue anymore. Unfortunately, this is not an ideal matchup for Watson, as the Ravens are coughing up the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (11.2), while allowing the fourth-lowest completion percentage (60.1%) and the fewest yards per pass attempt (5.5). The Ravens are also allowing just a 25% completion rate on passes of 20-plus air yards, making this a brutal spot for Watson.
Running Back
Two weeks ago, it looked like Jerome Ford would miss a few games with an ankle sprain. And yet, he hasn’t missed any action. Ford was clearly limited back in Week 8 when he played just 31% of the snaps, including just four snaps in the first half. However, in that game, Ford did play eight of nine third downs and all four snaps in the two-minute drill. As expected, the playing time went up this past weekend, as Ford played 63% of the offensive snaps, touching the ball 25 times. Kareem Hunt, meanwhile, played 30% of the snaps and recorded 14 touches. Hunt got more of the short-yardage work, but Ford once again dominated the passing down snaps, playing every snap in long down and distance and the two-minute drill. Ford is shaping up as a low-end RB2 against a Baltimore defense that has been worse against the run than the pass, though by no means is this an easy matchup.
Wide Receiver
Amari Cooper was both at home and catching passes from Deshaun Watson last week, the ideal scenario if you plan on starting the veteran wideout. He caught all five of his targets for 139 yards and a touchdown, and in four games where Watson has played at least 30 snaps this season, Cooper is now averaging 95.5 receiving yards and 18.1 PPR points per game. Of course, he is now on the road, where he is averaging about five fewer fantasy points per game since the start of last season. When these teams met back in Week 1, Cooper caught just one pass for 16 yards, though that was with Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback. Consider Cooper a lower-end WR2 ahead of this divisional matchup.
Tight End
David Njoku found the end zone again last week, his second consecutive game with a touchdown. Interestingly enough, his route participation dropped from 76% in Week 8 to 59% last week, though Cleveland had this game in control the entire way. Expect the routes to climb back up for Njoku, who now has 50-plus yards or a touchdown in three straight games. He’s on the TE1/TE2 borderline against a Ravens defense that is coughing up the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson continues to play at an MVP level, but as of late, he’s been very unlucky when it comes to fantasy scoring. Over the last two weeks, the Ravens continue to score a ton of rushing touchdowns, which has limited Jackson to QB28 and QB19. Last week, Jackson was lights out, completing 21-of-26 passes for 187 yards, while rushing for 60 yards. However, he failed to score a touchdown, as Gus Edwards scored two more. And with the game in hand, Jackson didn’t even play in the final quarter. Jackson is still the QB2 in fantasy points per dropback on the season (0.60) while averaging 9.3 rushing attempts and 48.9 rushing yards per game. When Jackson played Cleveland back in Week 4, he threw for 186 yards and two touchdowns, while adding a pair of rushing scores as well. The touchdown variance has been unfortunate as of late, but Jackson is still an MVP favorite who is a must-start in fantasy.
Running Back
If you want to blame anyone for Jackson’s lack of fantasy points as of late, it is probably Gus Edwards. The Gus Bus has been rolling as of late, as Edwards has scored six rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks. During that same span, Edwards is second in the league with five carries from inside the five-yard line, as the Ravens are running the football a league-high 51.5% of the time from inside the red zone this season. He only played 14 offensive snaps on Sunday, splitting work with Justice Hill in the first half. In the second half, the Ravens turned to their backups in a blowout, as Hill played alongside Tyler Huntley late in the game. But Keaton Mitchell could take some work away from Edwards. The rookie got into the game in the second quarter and showcased his speed, breaking off an impressive 60-yard touchdown run. Edwards has done nothing to lose work, but head coach John Harbaugh stated that Mitchell could be in line for more snaps going forward, potentially forming a committee. This makes Edwards more of a risk as a flex play, though I still think he’s the 1A in this backfield, while handling most of the goal-line work. This is a tough matchup, as Cleveland is allowing the third-fewest rushing touchdowns per game to opposing backfields (0.25), as well as the fewest yards before contact per attempt (0.94).
Wide Receiver
Zay Flowers is coming off his worst game of the season on Sunday, catching his only target for 11 yards. Of course, he and the passing game didn’t have to do much in the second half, but that now marks two consecutive bad outings from Flowers. The rookie still has a solid 24% target share on the season, though he continues to mostly see usage close to the line of scrimmage. Flowers does still rank third among all wideouts in snaps in pre-snap motion (92), moving before the snap about 19% of the time, which tends to lead to first-read targets. But the Ravens, despite the offseason hype about a pass-heavy offense, still rank third in the league in neutral-script rush rate (48.9%). Flowers is a high-end WR3, especially considering his target share drops by 8% against man coverage.
Tight End
You are obviously starting Mark Andrews, who has either 60 yards or a touchdown in every game but one this season. Since Week 5, Andrews is sporting a healthy 24% target share, while drawing a target on 22% of his routes, rates much closer to what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from the all-pro tight end. The Browns are allowing the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (5.8). Good for them. Andrews torched Cleveland for 80 yards and a pair of scores in Week 4.
