Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Sequencing is everything in sports analysis. A player has 400 yards through Week 8 then 1,000 the rest of the way, he figured things out. Another has 1,000 through Week 8 then 400 after, the league figured him out. When things happen dictate a lot about how we talk about them.
So with that in mind, and with a thousand notes of appreciation to the inimitable Grant Brisbee, who perfected this topic, below, we’re going to pretend Weeks 1 and 2 didn’t exist. Below are the takes we’d have if the season had started in Week 3.
Los Angeles Chargers, Team of Destiny?
Chargers, 2-0? By a combined 11 points? With two questionable fourth-quarter coaching decisions that failed and still didn’t bite them in the butt? It’s a whole new era in Los Angeles, where the fates have apparently decided the Chargers have done enough penance over the years and have become the team that wins in the craziest of ways.
Add in that they’ve done it despite missing Austin Ekeler the whole time and Mike Williams for more than half the time, and Justin Herbert throwing for 572 yards and accounting for 6 total touchdowns in the two games, and maybe it’s time we think “destiny” and “Chargers” in the same sentence … in a positive way at last.
Calvin Ridley Is … Toast?
His overall numbers were salvaged by what is increasingly look like a fluky touchdown, but Calvin Ridley is two games into his Jaguars tenure and only has 5 receptions for 78 yards, with 30 of those yards coming on a single broken-coverage play. He had a pair of crushing drops in the first game, and after disappointing on seven targets in that game, he only earned a paltry two in his second. The Jaguars were really counting on the former star being his old self, but it certainly looks like Christian Kirk is still the WR1 in Jacksonville.
Break Up the Texans!
Two weeks into the season, the Texans certainly look like they nailed their coaching hire and both their first-round picks this year. They’re 2-0, out in front of what looks like a mess of an AFC South yet again, and their +44 point differential is worse only than the Bills (+62). C.J. Stroud was supposed to be the consolation prize after the Texans missed out on the first overall pick (and Bryce Young), but instead he’s thrown for 586 yards and 4 touchdowns in wins over two supposed playoff contenders in the Jaguars and Steelers.
It’s a new era in Houston.
Things Ain’t Working in Atlanta
The Falcons are 0-2. They’ve scored 13 points. Desmond Ridder has put up a 66.8 passer rating through two weeks. Kyle Pitts has 62 yards in two weeks; Drake London has 59 but at least scored a touchdown. Falcons coach Arthur Smith likes to say that he isn’t interested in fantasy football and just wants to win football games, but … he’s not doing either one.
The good news is that, after a fairly quiet first game, Bijan Robinson looked like everything that was promised against the Jaguars, totaling 137 of the Falcons’ 287 offensive yards for the game. But the way things are going, he’s set up to prove why running backs don’t matter, because even in a questionable NFC South, the Falcons might be irrelevant in a hurry.
Lamar Jackson Still the Same Guy, But That’s Just Fine
The passing numbers aren’t wowing you, as Lamar Jackson has 388 passing yards through two games and went without a passing score in one of them … but fantasy managers at least don’t care. The NFL record for QB rushing scores in a season is 14, and Jackson is on pace to set that before we get even halfway through the season. He’s scored a pair of touchdowns on the ground in each game so far. Maybe Todd Monken isn’t the change we dreamed of, or maybe the injuries in the Baltimore passing game are too much to overcome, but either way, Jackson is still a fantasy superstar.
Fountain of Youth for Adam Thielen?
You’d be forgiven if you thought signing in Carolina was a last gap for 33-year-old Adam Thielen after his release in Minnesota. After all, his numbers had been pretty steadily dropping over his last few Vikings years, and guys don’t often rebound at age 33 these days. Instead, Thielen’s been electric as a Panther, with 22 targets through two weeks (seventh in the league), 18 receptions and 221 yards. The Panthers might have found the “2022 Geno Smith” of wide receivers.
Buffalo Bills, Super Bowl Favorites?
A combined 85-23 score through two games is very good. Add in that one of those games was 48-20 against a team that had just won 70-20, and it’s even more impressive. The Bills are looking like the best team in the league so far. And they’ve done it in two different ways, with the defense going bananas in the first game against the Commanders and then Josh Allen being just about flawless against the Dolphins, going 21-for-25 passing for 320 yards and 4 touchdowns, good for a perfect 158.3 passer rating, and rushing for a score in both games so far. It’s been a long, long time since we’ve seen one of those blow-up games from Allen, and if he’s cut that out of his game, this team could be scary. We’ll have to see how they manage in light of the Tre’Davious White injury, but if Allen keeps playing like this it might not matter.
Christian McCaffrey, Good as Ever
It’s been 20 years since we’ve had a running back have multiple overall RB1 seasons, but if the first two weeks are any indication, Christian McCaffrey is out to end that streak. He started out with an excellent 119 yards and a score against the Giants, then blew that line out of the water against the Cardinals, accounting for 177 yards and four total touchdowns. In this electric 49ers offense, he’s set up to be the first running back with multiple RB1 seasons since Priest Holmes in 2002-2003.
Man, just imagine if he had games of 169-1 and 135-1 before these two. Now that would be an insane start to a season.
