The Fantasy Options Most Helped by Their Division in 2023

The NFL schedule changes every year, but six games for each team remain the same: the intradivisional matchups. The Rams might face the Eagles one season, the Saints the next, the Lions the one after that, but they’ll face the 49ers, Seahawks and Cardinals twice each, every single year.

That doesn’t always have to mean much, but at the least, you can use teams’ divisional games as the control to the rest of the schedule’s variable. If a team is in a division with three putrid defenses, and its players thrive in those games but struggle out of the division, well, that tells us something, but it also means good news for that team’s players the next year, because they will still play those teams. The inverse is also true if a team’s divisionmates are all defensive stalwarts.

Of course, this is small samples we’re dealing with here. In a 17-game season, you face divisional opponents six times and non-divisional opponents 11. Miss a game here and there, and the sample size is even smaller. So just doing well or poorly against division foes isn’t enough to draw a conclusion. But it’s a heck of a place to start.

That’s what I’m doing today and Wednesday. Below, I’m looking at the fantasy players most helped by their division in 2023, and what that means (if anything) for 2024. Wednesday, I’ll do the opposite — players most hurt by their division.

(All scoring is PPR, players needed at least four intradivisional games to be considered.)

Players Most Helped by Their Division in 2023

Jahan Dotson, WR, Washington Commanders

Outside the division: 4.8 PPR points per game
Inside the division: 12.0
Increase: +150.0%

Dotson’s second year in the NFL was kind of a disaster. After 523 yards and 7 touchdowns in only 12 games as a rookie, he dropped in both numbers (to 518 and 4) in 2023 despite playing all 17 games and seeing his targets climb by about one-third and his receptions climb by 40%. He was drafted as the WR37 and finished as the WR56. And it was even worse when he left the NFC East, with only one game outside the division with more than 9 PPR points. Inside the division, though, his 12.0 PPR points per game was at least functional, borderline WR3 numbers, and it would have been even better without his all-but-meaningless Week 18, when he put up 3.7. Across his other five NFC East games, Dotson averaged 13.7 PPR points per game, the same as Jakobi Meyers and Cooper Kupp last year.

The Eagles rebuilt their secondary this offseason by drafting Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean with their first two picks. That’s a high-variance approach, given it’s two rookies. And the Giants and Cowboys secondaries are largely running it back. Dotson’s fortunes is going to be more tied to Jayden Daniels’ success or failure than his division, of course, but his divisional games could be a bonus.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (now Tennessee Titans)

Outside the division: 10.6
Inside the division: 18.9
Increase: +78.1%

Ridley had five games last year with at least 40 yards and a touchdown. Four of those five games came in AFC South games, including Week 1 (8-101-1 against Indianapolis), Week 11 (7-103-2 against Tennessee), Week 12 (5-89-1 against Houston) and Week 18 (6-106-1 against Tennessee). He also had a 6-90-2 game against Tampa in Week 16, but otherwise he generally disappointed in his lone season in Jacksonville.

Usually, a player on this list changing teams gets dinged, but then usually, a player changing teams also changed divisions. Instead, Ridley stuck in the AFC South by going to the Titans. But then two of Ridley’s big AFC South games were against the Titans team he is now joining, so … no, we aren’t giving Calvin Ridley an intradivisional boost for 2024.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Outside the division: 21.0
Inside the division: 32.0
Increase: +52.3%

The only running back who averaged more PPR points per game across the whole season than Christian McCaffrey did in games outside the NFC West was Kyren Williams, who put up 21.3 (the next best was 17.9). And when McCaffrey did play divisional games, he averaged 32.0 PPR points per game. Listen, there aren’t a lot of ways to blow my mind when it comes to Christian McCaffrey facts these days, but that tidbit is positively Chuck Norris-ian.

McCaffrey topped 30 PPR points three times last year, all against the NFC West, including 48.7 points against Arizona in Week 4, 30.9 against Seattle in Week 12 and 41.7 against Arizona in Week 15. Things that have changed for McCaffrey or his NFC West peers heading into 2024: Not much. He’s the 1.01, and he’s about the 1.01-iest 1.01 we’ve had in a long, long time.

Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Inside the division: 12.6
Outside the division: 18.7
Increase: +48.8%

This really comes down to one game. Kelce had four games of 12.0 PPR points or less out of 10 outside the AFC West (40%) and two of five AFC West games (40%). He had one game between 20 and 30 points inside and outside the division. But Kelce had one absolutely world-beating game last year, with 12 receptions on 13 targets for 179 yards and a touchdown, and it came in a divisional game, a 31-17 win over the Chargers in Week 7.

What does it mean? It means that Travis Kelce freaking loves facing the Chargers. He’s topped 35 PPR points four times in his career, and three have come against the Chargers (one each of the last three seasons). To be fair, the fourth such game was also in the division (39.8 points against the Raiders in 2018), but in the end, my conclusion is that this is a Chargers fact, not an AFC West one.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Outside the division: 14.3
Inside the division: 20.0
Increase: +39.8%

Lawrence had three games last year under 10 fantasy points. All were outside the AFC South. He had three over 20. Two of those three were inside the AFC South, including QB1 in Week 11 and QB6 in Week 12. Basically, outside the AFC South he was Derek Carr (14.7 points per game), and inside the division he was between Dak Prescott (20.7) and Jordan Love (19.4). And the good news for Lawrence is, unlike the departed Ridley, he’s on the same team and in the same situation heading into 2024. A lot will ride on how Brian Thomas and Gabe Davis integrate into the Jacksonville offense, but Lawrence could thrive in AFC South games again.