Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
As a connoisseur of niche sports, you’ll usually see me in the collegiate realm, specifically football and basketball. I’ve also been known to hang out in the USFL or WNBA streets as well. However, I was given the opportunity to cover NFL preseason DFS and it was an absolute blast, despite the fact that it was a roller coaster ride of emotions at times.
The biggest edge in preseason NFL DFS is clearly player news. Being able to report any late-breaking relevant news while also digesting it in a viable way that makes it easier to process for the FTN community is not always easy. However, that is something of a specialty of mine and a major reason why I’ve been successful over the years in sports like CBB or CFB. News isn’t always readily available and those that do the legwork to find it are usually rewarded long term.
You can expect to see “Top Plays”-style writeups from me for preseason slates, which will include core plays, PrizePicks props and overall strategy talk. To be successful in preseason NFL DFS we need to dive into the do’s and don’ts before breaking down the actual slates. In this piece, I will highlight what is beneficial to this process while also elaborating on anything that is borderline useless when building preseason lineups.
Do: Use Social Media Outlets to Find and Digest Player/Team News
Being profitable in any niche sport is dependent upon how well you can find relevant news and process it in a way that is beneficial to your lineups. We have had a multitude of examples over the years of how we benefited from late scratches or surprise starters right before lock or even in the middle of a slate just because we were tracking the news. This will be especially important during the preseason and reports about limited snaps for usual starters, positional competitions and player cuts are your ticket to ending the night with a beautiful green screen. The team at FTN will be sharing all pertinent information in the NFL Discord, but it’s important to understand we may only have only a few minutes at best to process the information and will have to make snap decisions based on the news available. You’re simply doing yourself a real disservice if you don’t have notifications turned on for beat writers or reporters on the various social media outlets in addition to staying active in the FTN NFL Discord.
Don’t: Just Roster a Player You Would Usually Rely on During the Regular Season
This probably seems like common sense, but you’d be surprised how many of your opponents’ lineups end up with a big-name player or regular-season starters. Clearly, some of those upper-tier players could be viable at times but we need to let the news help guide our decisions when it comes to someone like Lamar Jackson or Christian McCaffrey. There will be news out there stating Nick Chubb is out or is on a limited snap count thus making him a less attractive option, yet people around the industry will still end up rostering him in some capacity. Punish opponents that are lazy about news and continue to do so if you spot them in the lobby.
Do: Get Creative with Your Stacks
A lot of large-field tournament strategy relies heavily upon the way you stack a team. Landing the right combination can be a tad more difficult than it is in the regular season because of the variance when it comes to snap counts. One of the more successful ways to approach stacking in the preseason for me has been zeroing in shallow depth chart situations. If news comes out that a handful of guys are going to get more snaps than usual and that team is already dressing fewer than 5-6 players at a position, it creates a favorable group to build your lineup around. We had some success targeting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers receivers last year because of a report that stated guys like Jerreth Sterns and Jaelon Darden would see early work. Sterns caught 4 passes for 51 yards and a touchdown while Darden caught a 23-yard score during their first preseason game. Very few people would be willing to roster both because of the other names on that particular roster but if you did, you were rewarded handsomely. Little things like that can set you apart from the rest of the field and provide you with a huge boost to the bankroll.
Don’t: Ignore Strategy When It Comes to Picking a DST for Your Lineup
Prioritizing a DST goes against everything you’ve probably ever heard when it comes to NFL DFS. However, it’s important to remember that there is a big difference between the preseason and the regular season. Points are a premium in the preseason, and due to the lower scores we often see, you can sometimes cash a slate with a 0 from one of your players. It really does happen more than you probably think. Knowing points aren’t scored as easily means that prioritizing a DST could be a winning strategy for DFS purposes. Since we don’t have to worry about snap counts with a DST like we do with our offensive players, the guaranteed point production becomes a bit more predictable. Teams tend to move through their offensive groups quickly in preseason games while first and second team defenses might play longer periods. This leads to a scenario in which starting caliber defenders are facing off with practice squad-level offensive players. This is a truly optimal circumstance that could lead to a huge shot of endorphins after your DST takes an ill-advised pass from Mitch Trubisky for a pick 6.
Do: Be Aware of How Deadlines and Roster Cuts Impact NFL Preseason DFS
For a third straight season, all but two teams will play three preseason games. The Cleveland Browns and New York Jets each play an additional preseason game due to being in the Hall of Fame Game Thursday. In previous years, there were cutdown days after each week of the preseason to slowly bring rosters from 90 down to 53 players. That rule has been changed for 2023, as there is now just one date in which teams must get down to 53 players. That important date is Tuesday, Aug. 29.
This is a bit of a curveball and could provide even more chaos during the next month of the preseason. It’s important to note that players can be cut or traded anytime before Aug. 29, but teams are not required to gradually release players anymore. This could theoretically lead to a situation in which teams could carry 85-90 players into the deadline day. However, that would cause them to make vast cuts of 30-plus players in one single day.
This is the first year without multiple cut days, so we won’t know when those roster moves will happen until they actually are announced. This takes us back to the news being so important for an edge. We could actually find out a player is being cut right before a game lock which might even lead to rostership for a guy that is no longer on the team. That’s what we are hoping for anyway when it comes to our opponents’ lineups.
Do: Utilize All of the Tools We Offer at FTN and Read All of the Content
The FTN team is growing and the amazing content we provide from our fantastic talent is truly the best in the business in my opinion. At the risk of sounding arrogant, I believe in this team and the product we offer. The content schedule is quite robust and in addition to slate breakdowns, there will be projections, live streams, Q&A sessions, Discord strategy talk and more throughout the season. Using this information in an optimal way will set you above the rest of the field and make you a profitable player long-term.
