Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Putting one’s neck out there is a fundamental practice when you’re the CEO of #TeamHuevos. Hey, you have to risk it to make the biscuit. Every year, every fantasy football season, surprises occur, twists so shocking few, if any, ever see them coming. Gazing into the crystal ball and creeping out onto a very long limb, here are my top-10 boldest predictions among WRs in this The Year of our Ceaseless Pestilence, 2020:
1. Allen Robinson catches at least 100 passes and pushes Michael Thomas for top honors at the position.
How can it happen? Nick Foles wins the starting job and displays just a modicum of competency. Honestly, that’s the only requirement. After all, the former Philly Special executor is the best QB Robinson has played alongside. Stretching back to his college days he has attempted to corral wounded ducks from Matt McGloin, Christian Hackenberg, Chad Henne, Blake Bortles, Chase Daniel and Mitchell Trubisky. Poor bastard. If Foles tucks inside the top-20 in adjusted completion percentage, the wideout — who ranked WR5 in contested catch rate and WR5 in total target share (27.0%) — scribbles a 100-1,250-10 line.
2. Brandin Cooks turns back the clock in Houston by exceeding 70 receptions, 1,000 yards and scores at least 7 touchdowns.
How can it happen? If Cooks were an actor playing Batman he would most certainly be Val Kilmer. As Christian Bale, Michael Keaton, Ben Affleck, George Clooney, Adam West and Robert Pattinson earn praise, The Riddler’s arch-nemesis is left out in the cold. Stay healthy, however, and Cooks could be one of the position’s most feared Caped Crusaders. Remember, he’s a year removed from an 80-1,204-6 output in L.A., a season in which he ranked No. 9 in total air yards. Last year slotting at a miserable WR96 in catchable target percentage, he’s a strong bounce back candidate with a more accurate Deshaun Watson tossing him spirals. Bank on at least a 20-23% target share.
3. Among perceived sophomore sensations, Diontae Johnson outperforms A.J. Brown in 0.5 PPR formats.
How can it happen? After analyzing Brown’s deep-dive stats and juxtaposing them over his situation entering 2020 and there’s only one conclusion to draw — regression. Brown was a tour de force in his rookie season amassing 20.2 yards per catch and the highest YAC per reception (8.88) among wideouts. His resulting 52-1051-8 surface line was nothing short of spectacular. However, enticing just 16.7% of Tennessee’s red-zone targets, the home-run hitter could enter a sophomore slump. Unless OC Arthur Smith abruptly abandons Derrick Henry and his run-first ways, it’s highly unlikely Brown sustains last season’s breakneck pace. Johnson, who was No. 1 in average separation yards per target and ranked WR81 in catchable target rate, has Big Ben back and is poised to greatly outpace last season’s 59-680-5 tally.
4. Michael Pittman is the breakthrough wide receiver among this year’s rookie wide receiver class, tallying at least 55 receptions, 800 yards and 6-7 TDs.
How can it happen? In the timeless words of Sir Mix-a-Lot, Pittman is long (6-foot-4), strong (223 pounds) and down to get the friction on, if you can corral him (4.52 40-yard). Already building a red-zone chemistry with Philip Rivers in training camp, the former Trojan enters the league with a sharpened sword in hand. His high-point abilities, ball-tracking skills and reliable hands are all plus attributes. Indy will play it conservatively, leaning heavily on its triumvirate at RB, but with a clear path to targets, Pittman could wind up as the most valuable first-year wide receiver among a very talented group.
5. Courtland Sutton and D.J. Chark greatly outperform their ADPs and crack the final top-10 position rankings.
How can it happen? The old “third-year WR breakout” axiom really is a fallacy. In a league where instant gratification is necessary and successful players transition rapidly, breakthrough performances often occur earlier. Well, as long as your name isn’t DeVante Parker or Breshad Perriman. Sutton and Chark both nestled into the top-20 to end 2019 and are in a favorable position to advance the ball forward this fall. Both have young, promising quarterbacks. Both excel inside the red zone. Both are tough to wrangle in contested catch situations. Both ranked appreciably in total air yards last fall (Sutton WR16; Chark WR21). Both are the indisputable No. 1s on their respective teams. If Drew Lock and Gardner Minshew take off, both bank in fantasy.
6. Chris Godwin, last year’s breakout performer at the position, shaves a significant chunk off last year’s total and lands outside the end-of-the-year top-15.
How can it happen? Tom Brady is abducted by aliens and replaced with a noodle-armed QB lampooned for never living up to expectations. Yes, Blaine Gabbert is the backup and, no, little green men held captive inside Area 54 won’t escape and jettison Tom Terrific to Uranus, but the receiving deity is set to come back down to earth this year. Bruce Arians’ emphasis on 12 personnel will likely eat into his 22.0% target share (8.5 per game) from 2019. Rob Gronkowski’s unbreakable bond with Brady inside the red zone also amplifies concern. In the end, he’ll be hard pressed to replicate last year’s 86-1,333-9 line.
7. Michael Gallup outpaces Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb to become Dallas’ most valuable wide receiver and toes the line of the WR top-15.
How can it happen? For starters, you should never hand off a baby to Cooper. His on-field history tells us it’s a risky proposition. He’s wildly inconsistent and the antithesis of matchup-proof. Lamb, meanwhile, has bill-paying skills. The rookie is expected to play all three wide receiver positions, but he’s a first-year player in a coronavirus-influenced age. How quickly he hits the ground running is anyone’s best guess. Gallup is Dak Prescott’s trusty rock. Totaling 1,107 yards, six touchdowns and top-18 rankings in total air yards (WR14), contested catch rate (WR17) and YAC per reception (WR18), he’s a premier playmaker. Mike McCarthy’s belief the receiver is a “No. 1” is hardly unfounded. He’s a steal at his WR29 (67.3) ADP.
8. DeVante Parker bests his line from his breakthrough 2019 season and again finishes WR10 or better.
How can it happen? In a time of dueling simultaneous Gulf of Mexico hurricanes, fire tornadoes, murder hornets, zombie cicadas and Orioles .500 baseball, anything is possible. Out of left field, Parker cannonball splashed into the WR1 class in, seemingly, his 24th season. On 128 targets, he hauled in 72 receptions for 1,202 yards and nine touchdowns. Sensational versus contested coverage (WR8 in contested catch%), inside the red zone (30 targets, 17 receptions, 9 TDs) and downfield (14.7-yard aDOT (WR12)), he morphed into an all-fields threat. With Ryan Fitzpatrick cemented as the early season starter, Parker picks up where he left off. Yes, even with Preston Williams back.
9. A.J. Green and T.Y. Hilton each play at least 15 games and outproduce young hyped bucks Marquise Brown and Calvin Ridley.
How can it happen? Green and Hilton are replaced by Terminator replicas. Trotting out titanium-boned copycats is probably the only way appendages hold up over 15 games. Admittedly, this is a neck-out-there prognostication, but Green and Hilton, when healthy, are proven products with WR1 roles within their schemes. Most importantly, both are on squads that upgraded QBs this offseason. Joe Burrow, who is tearing up training camp and ranked QB2 in adjusted completion percentage at the FBS level in 2019, is the real deal. Meanwhile, Philip Rivers is light years more accurate, according to almost every metric, compared to Jacoby Brissett. Turn back the clock and the geriatrics teach whippersnappers Brown and Ridley a lesson.
10. Curtis Samuel experiences the biggest breakout among wide receivers outside the top-50 WR ADP.
How can it happen? As revealed in the “50 lines about 50 players,” Samuel logged a mind-blowing 1,608 total air yards (WR9) and 15.31-yard aDOT (WR8) in 2019. Obviously, the final numbers didn’t match the analytics, but the opportunities were clearly there. Blame Kyle Allen and his perverse throws. In a Joe Brady offense that promises to attack down the field, however, Samuel, in a multifaceted role, could see a numbers surge. Carolina’s anticipated bottom barrel defense only increases the probability. Teddy Bridgewater is most comfortable operating in the short field, but he did display downfield accuracy with New Orleans last season.
