Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We might be a couple weeks away from the start of the NFL regular season, but it’s never too early to bet on Week 1 totals.
Earlier this summer I placed bets on every Week 1 NFL game, and recently I highlighted three spread bets I still like for Week 1.
In this piece, I break down three Week 1 over/unders I still like, using our NFL Odds Tool to find the best lines in the market.
To see the other bets I’ve made for the upcoming NFL season — including my three favorite Super Bowl longshots — check out our FTN Bet Tracker.
(Get an All Access pass to FTN NFL coverage across all sites for $349.99.)
Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 1 odds
Here is my betting pick for the matchup between the Cowboys and Buccaneers in Week 1.
- Total: 49
- Bet: Over
- Odds: -115, DraftKings Sportsbook
I’m somewhat conflicted on this play. I first bet it at 51.5 and expected it to go up to 52. That hasn’t happened. Instead, the line has moved in the other direction, dropping significantly. It’s almost never a good sign if you’re betting against the momentum of the market.
Knowing that I’m likely to be at a closing line deficit on my original bet is frustrating. But I still think there’s value on the over, especially at 49.
First, this line at DraftKings is significantly off relative to the market, as the total is now 50.5 at every other major sportsbook. From a lineshopping perspective, this line is a gift.
On top of that, the flow of money is suggestive. In the Action Network App, 47% of the bets but 60% of the money is on the over, which indicates that the big money is looking for a high-scoring game — and the big money tends to be sharp.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (shoulder, ankle) might not be 100% healthy for Week 1, but there’s almost no doubt that he’ll be active for the season opener, and the combination of Prescott and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is explosive. In Moore’s two years as coordinator, the Cowboys offense has ranked Nos. 1 and 14 in total yards. The Cowboys can move the ball, and that has been reflected in their totals. Over the past two years, Cowboys overs are 20-12, and last year the over was 4-1 in Prescott’s five starts.
And on defense the Cowboys should be almost as helpless this year as they were last year. It’s very hard to fire coordinator Mike Nolan, hire someone to replace him, and not stumble into an automatic upgrade at the position — but the Cowboys have somehow done it with their “addition” (cough) of coordinator Dan Quinn.
As for the Buccaneers, they are an impressive 23-13 to the over since head coach Bruce Arians joined the team two years ago. They can put up points.
And with quarterback Tom Brady entering his second season with the Bucs and now having full mastery of the system and established chemistry with wide receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown, they should be especially strong on offense.
One of high-stakes fantasy dominator Nelson Sousa’s bold calls for 2021 is that Brady will be the No. 1 fantasy quarterback this year, and that makes him one of Sousa’s mid-round fantasy draft targets.
To get all of Sousa’s analysis, check out his high-stakes fantasy package, which comes with coaching sessions and Sousa’s rankings.
Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans Week 1 odds
- Total: 51.5
- Bet: Over
- Odds: -110, FanDuel Sportsbook
The thesis for this play is pretty simple: The Cardinals play fast, and the Titans put up points.
The Cardinals play at a blistering pace, and last year they had a league-high no-huddle rate of 38.4% (per our no-huddle offense stats tool). Against a Titans defense that had bottom-four marks with 19 sacks and 66 quarterback hits in 2020, the Cardinals should be able to move the ball.
And all the Titans do at home is score. With quarterback Ryan Tannehill, the over is 11-3-1 at Nissan Stadium. With wide receiver Julio Jones, the Titans offense should be even more dynamic this year.
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Denver Broncos at New York Giants Week 1 odds
- Total: 42.5
- Bet: Under
- Odds: -110, BetMGM
Last year, the NFL set many offensive records on a per-team basis with 24.8 points and 359.0 yards per game and 2.20 points, 32.9 yards, and 6.09 plays per drive.
And yet despite the inflated offensive production we saw in 2020, the Giants had an impressive under record of 12-3-1. I guess that’s what you get when you mix the hard-nosed defense-driven pragmatism of head coach Joe Judge with the slow-paced incompetence of offensive coordinator Jason Garrett and quarterback Daniel Jones.
As for the Broncos, they should be better on defense with the return of edge rusher Von Miller, and their offense could underwhelm with quarterback Teddy Bridgewater the top passing option.
With the Broncos, especially against the Giants defense in Week 1, what’s likeliest is that they will underperform offensive expectations.
