Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
I’m a degenerate, in case you hadn’t noticed. And that’s why earlier this summer I placed bets on every Week 1 NFL game.
Now that we’re through Week 2 of the preseason, it’s time to highlight a few of the spread bets I still like for Week 1, using our NFL Odds Tool to find the best lines in the market.
To see the other bets I’ve made for the upcoming NFL season — including my 3 favorite Super Bowl longshots — check out our FTN Bet Tracker.
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills Week 1 odds
Here is my betting pick for the matchup between the Bills and Steelers in Week 1.
- Side: Steelers
- Spread: +7
- Odds: -110, FanDuel Sportsbook
Quarterback Josh Allen was fantastic last year, but the Bills enter 2021 with a world of hype around them, and this number just feels inflated. And, historically, bettors have not had success going against the Steelers, who are a fantastic 40-21-3 against the spread as underdogs under head coach Mike Tomlin.
If you even wanted to back the Steelers on the moneyline (+265 at FanDuel), I wouldn’t blame you: As an underdog, Tomlin is 31-28.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns Week 1 odds
Here is my betting pick for the matchup between the Chiefs and Browns in Week 1.
- Side: Chiefs
- Spread: -6
- Odds: -110, BetMGM
I first bet this at -5.5, but I am comfortable taking it at -6.
The Browns have an impressive defense led by edge rusher Myles Garrett and shutdown cornerback Denzel Ward — and the offseason additions of edges Jadeveon Clowney and Takkarist McKinley and cornerbacks Troy Hill and Greg Newsome should make the unit even tougher — but you couldn’t pay me to bet against the Chiefs in this spot.
Head coach Andy Reid is 6-2 ATS in Week 1 since joining the Chiefs eight years ago, and that’s not a fluke: He regularly starts the season hot. In Weeks 1-4, Reid is 22-10 ATS with the Chiefs.
And quarterback Patrick Mahomes is 31-21-2 ATS for his career and 10-2 ATS in Weeks 1-4.
Coming off last season’s Super Bowl loss, the Chiefs I expect to start the season focused and hot.
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Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders Week 1 bets
Here is my betting pick for the matchup between the Ravens and Raiders in Week 1.
- Side: Ravens
- Spread: -4
- Odds: -110, Caesars
This line is -4.5 at every other book, so there’s notable lineshopping value in the -4 at Caesars.
But, honestly, even on the road, the Ravens should be favored by close to a touchdown against the Raiders, who last year allowed a league-high 50.3% of drives to end with an offensive score.
In his 13 years with the Ravens, head coach John Harbaugh is 10-3 ATS in Week 1, and that’s probably not luck given that he is also 9-4 ATS off the regular-season bye. If Harbaugh has sufficient time to prepare, his team performs.
