SuperDraft NFL breakdown for Week 16

Welcome to the weekly breakdown for SuperDraft DFS Multiplier contests. Each week, I’ll provide a slate overview, recommended plays at each position as well as some GPP game stacks and best secondary correlations.

Week 15 Recap

Here is the winning lineup from SuperDraft’s largest GPP, the Red Zone, alongside the winning lineup from the $100 Gunslinger GPP.

A couple of SuperDraft regulars popped off as AllyBourne won the Red Zone and RodHood won the Gunslinger. They both had an uber-chalky James Robinson, lower-rostered Jeff Wilson and a nice late-window pivot of Tyler Huntley. I brought this potential scenario of late-swapping to Huntley (if Lamar Jackson was inactive) in last week’s piece. But there’s no way I, nor anyone, could have envisioned such an explosive outing.

Mark Andrews smashed for a second consecutive week (11-11-115-1 in Week 14, 13-10-136-2 in Week 15). Ironically, both games with Baltimore’s backup quarterback. That was another “hit” in last week’s piece where I recommended a lower-rostered Andrews at the same multiplier as a chalky George Kittle. A bit higher of an average team multiplier in the Red Zone this week (1.5x on the dot) thanks to three higher-multiplier pass-catchers (Gabriel Davis, Russell Gage, Marquez Valdes-Scantling). This might intrigue and push SuperDrafters to lean into more high-multiplier plays this week. But based on what we’ve seen from winning lineups this season, those Week 15 occurrences were outliers.

Looking ahead to this week’s GPPs, note that SuperDraft has a special low-priced ($3.50 entry) contest called the Xmas Tree-Fiddy that we can build a bunch of lineups in. Making 20 lineups in this contest will only set you back $70 and maxing it out would cost $525.

(Sign up at SuperDraft with promo code FTN for an INSTANT $100 deposit match.)

Week 16 Preview

Another wild week of COVID-19-related absences in practice and a whole bunch of holes in NFL teams’ lineups. In addition to our regular primetime games, there are two games Saturday. That leaves us with 11 games on Sunday’s main slate with three of them in the late window. It lines up as a potentially low-scoring week as none of these games have a Vegas total greater than 50 points and only two over 45 points. The Rams and Lions have a 49 total while the Chargers and Texans are at 46. 

As you may imagine, no implied team totals greater than 30 points. The teams with the highest implied totals are the Chargers (28.25), Chiefs (26.75), Buccaneers (26.5), Rams (26.25) and Eagles (25.25). The Bucs were hit tremendously hard by injuries to key offensive players. Leonard Fournette and Chris Godwin are both out for the season and Mike Evans is questionable. This will inevitably lead to much attention towards backup running back Ronald Jones (1.4x). With Chargers’ back Austin Ekeler likely inactive on Sunday, Justin Jackson (1.65x) will also end up chalky.

Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Two of the most popular quarterbacks this week call the City of Angels their home, but we will likely see slightly higher roster rates on Chargers’ Justin Herbert. His opponent – the Texans – rank 27th in DVOA pass defense but have been more easily thwarted by opposing run games. That is part of the reason why we will see Justin Jackson as a frequented option in lineups. Meanwhile, Matthew Stafford’s matchup is pretty darn good as well. The Vikings allow the second-most SuperDraft points to QBs (21.9) and are 29th in QB defense vs. position. The Vikings’ run defense has been much stingier than the Texans run D. Minnesota has allowed just 12 rushing scores compared to Houston’s 23. Their multipliers are close enough, but my assumption is that Stafford has better odds at three or more passing touchdowns and will end up with more SuperDraft points. If building multiple, make sure to utilize both. If having to choose, Stafford is my preferred play.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow hasn’t had anything close to the sophomore campaign some expected but he is in a great spot in Week 16 against a Ravens’ secondary that is reeling. Cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey, Jimmy Smith and Justin Houston are out, and their defensive line is also beat up. Several key guys are questionable including stud defensive end Calais Campbell. The Ravens allow the second-most passing yards per game (264.9) and the third-highest yards-per-attempt (7.9). Burrow’s best outing this season came against the Ravens in Week 7 when their defense was healthier (416-3-1) and we might be in store for an encore. 

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sometimes we don’t need much more than an “Angry Brady” narrative to make sure we include him in some of our lineups. Tom Brady and the Bucs were embarrassed by the Saints last Sunday night and we know that game tape has been passed around the league as a way to stop Brady. But defenses haven’t been able to do so for two decades. No Chris Godwin, no Leonard Fournette and possibly no Mike Evans coupled with that recent stinker will keep Brady’s popularity low. We should know by now that this means it’s time to pounce. He will fall under 10% in the Red Zone with most DFS players’ attention on rostering Ronald Jones. We should still consider Jones but also focus on stacking Brady with Antonio Brown (1.2x), Tyler Johnson (1.6x) and Rob Gronkowski (1.15x).

Though Tyler Huntley (1.45x) isn’t listed above, he would be in consideration for MME lineups if Lamar Jackson is inactive yet again. He probably wouldn’t crack my top five though as my focus would be on the guys below.

Favorite Plays: Matthew Stafford, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts
Low-Percentage Gut Play: Tom Brady

(Sign up at SuperDraft with promo code FTN for an INSTANT $100 deposit match.)

Running Backs

The Chalk

Justin Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers
Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings

It’s very clear who most SuperDrafters’ favorite plays are going to be this week. With Austin Ekeler not at full strength last week, Justin Jackson made the most of his season-high 13 carries, running for 86 yards and one reception for 13 yards. The matchup against a bottom-five Houston run defense is a stellar one and it helps that Jackson could step into that Ekeler role by picking up extra points with receptions and receiving yards. His 1.65x multiplier simply makes him too difficult to fade entirely. 

Ronald Jones has taken a backseat to Fournette this season but Fournette out, it’s time for RoJo to shine. He was a pretty damn efficient runner last season with a 5.1 YPC and four games with over 100 yards, including a 192-yard rushing effort against these Panthers last November. He’s at a solid 4.7 YPC on limited carries this season but should find a heavy workload this Sunday. I’ll have my fair share of Brady stacks this weekend and am usually averse to chalky plays, but I don’t foresee Jones being a bust this weekend.

Alexander Mattison draws the start with Dalvin Cook testing positive for COVID-19, and we’ve all been witness to what he’s capable of with a full workload. Mattison has topped 90 yards in each of his three starts this season and has averaged nearly 24 carries in those outings. The Rams are no pushover on defense and Mattison’s 20% scoring bonus is minimal so there are definite paths to him not landing in optimal or winning lineups. He is still a top-five back on this slate but James Robinson (1.15x) has a similar multiplier in a much stronger matchup as the Jets rank dead last in SuperDraft points allowed to running backs (32.8). I’ll probably have just as much Robinson exposure as Mattison exposure.

Ameer Abdullah, Carolina Panthers

In Week 15, Abdullah and early-down back Chuba Hubbard shared offensive snaps evenly. Abdullah handled most of the passing downs and came through with 4-48-1 on four targets in that game. Game script projects to favor the Bucs, and with wideout D.J. Moore not at full strength, Abdullah could see five-plus targets and more work than Hubbard. With an 85% scoring bonus, it’s worth speculating on a few lineups.

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos

Both Williams and Melvin Gordon have been limited in practice this week though both are projected to play. The two continue to keep one another’s roster percentage reasonable as it’s hard to invest in split backfields in DFS. Williams has three straight outings of 15-plus carries, at least 70 rushing yards and is among the best at the position in nearly every metric from broken tackle rate (23.5%) to average yards after contact (3.5). With Gordon in the mix and Javonte’s multiplier dropping, this matchup is a good opportunity for us to play him with little fanfare and hopefully gain an edge on the field. My gut thinks this will be a big game for him.

Favorite Plays: Justin Jackson, Ronald Jones, Alexander Mattison, Cordarrelle Patterson
Low-Percentage Gut Play: Javonte Williams

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams

The league’s top wideout this season faces a bottom-five secondary that ranks dead last in DvP to wideouts. He’s going to finish the season strong so we may as well hop along for the ride. For goodness sake’s, the man has exceeded 90 receiving yards in 13 of 14 games this season.

Diontae Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs’ defense has really turned up the heat of late. Other than last week’s game against the Chargers, they haven’t allowed more than 14 real points in their five games prior. Ceiling games for Pittsburgh offensive players may be hard to come by but if there’s one man who can break the barrier, it’s Johnson. He has seen at least 10 targets in 10-of-13 games this season and this matchup lines up for double-digits yet again. His multiplier has dipped ever so slightly (from 1.4x last week to 1.35x this week) and it’s still a smashing price for a guy who probably shouldn’t get more than a 10% scoring bonus.

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals

Bottom line here is that you’ll want to be focused on this offense and passing attack. Higgins had three straight 100-plus yard outings in Weeks 12-14 as he’s really turned up his effectiveness of late. Chase is a pure stud whose had some poor outings in an overall fantastic rookie season. But it’s all about the matchup and it’s hard to overlook this decimated Ravens’ secondary and not want to pounce. Keep in mind it’s the Ravens who Chase obliterated a couple months back when he caught eight balls for 201 yards. Higgins is the safer cash play because of the multiplier cushion but I’m going to have some Burrow teams with both of these two fine, young gents.

Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks

Given the low 43-point Vegas total with two teams that prefer to run the ball, this Bears-Seahawks game isn’t exactly one I’m over the moon to stack with. Mooney has been the Bears’ alpha with at least five receptions in six of his last nine games. He also saw three red zone targets against the Vikings on Monday night. Like him very much for the price and will happily correlate with Seahawks’ Tyler Lockett who is expected to be active. Lockett has found himself in a nice rhythm with Russell Wilson these past six weeks as he’s put up some fine box scores (5-142-1, 7-68-1, 3-96-0, 4-114-0, 12-142-0 – all since Week 8). Nice to see him added to the player pool coming off his bout with COVID-19, because he is someone I can see cracking the top lineups this week.

Low Multipliers

Laquon Treadwell, Jacksonville Jaguars

Out of nowhere, Treadwell has become the Jags’ top option in the pass game. He leads teammates in receiving yards over the past month (240) as well as receptions (eight). He’s just missing some touchdowns. Perhaps he can find his way into the end zone this weekend in a matchup with the Jets. For me, it’s worth finding out at the 2x tag.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

This play only works if Brandin Cooks is inactive. Someone will have to step and be the alpha in a game script where the Texans will likely be chasing the Chargers. L.A.’s pass D is among the league’s most stout but without Cooks, the rookie Collins should see plenty of extra targets his way. He’s the only reasonable bring-back on a Justin Herbert/Chargers GPP stack.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

It’s a price and matchup thing. Anderson is within a 20% multiplier range of some studs. But if Moore isn’t his regular dominating self and the Panthers are in catch-up mode, it’s likely that Anderson will see the bulk of targets.

Favorite Plays: Cooper Kupp, Tee Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase, Keenan Allen, Diontae Johnson
Low-Percentage Gut Plays: Tyler Lockett, Robby Anderson

Tight Ends

I won’t be throwing darts and playing too many tight ends outside of my top list of projections. Travis Kelce is the wild card of the group as we may not find out whether he’s playing or not until Sunday. The top dogs lately have been Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert. Both are strong plays at reasonable tags but it’s that 30% scoring bonus that really has Andrews sticking out. My concern if Lamar Jackson suits up is that the pendulum will swing back to Marquise Brown seeing a higher volume of targets. Nevertheless, both are great and chalky plays.

Rob Gronkowski is the third guy among the low multiplier group who I am very much interested in. With Mike Evans is out, don’t be surprised if Gronk is the guy who Tom Brady latches on to. Gronk won’t be popular at his low multiplier, but he is the guy I could easily see outscoring the field. 

Favorite Plays: Dallas Goedert, Rob Gronkowski, Mark Andrews, Cole Kmet
Super Low-Percentage Gut Play: Jared Cook

(Sign up at SuperDraft with promo code FTN for an INSTANT $100 deposit match.)

Favorite Game Stacks

1. Rams (Matthew Stafford + Cooper Kupp + 1 of Odell Beckham/Van Jefferson) + Vikings (Alexander Mattison or Justin Jefferson)

2. Bengals (Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase + Tee Higgins) + Ravens (1 of Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown, Rashod Bateman – Brown favorite)

3. Chargers (Justin Herbert + 2 of Keenan Allen, Justin Jackson, Mike Williams, Jared Cook) + Texans (Nico Collins or Rex Burkhead, 1.95x)

4. Bucs (Tom Brady + Ronald Jones + 1 or 2 of Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Johnson) + Panthers (1 of Robby Anderson, Ameer Abdullah, DJ Moore)

Favorite Secondary Correlations

1. Cooper Kupp (Rams) + Alexander Mattison (Vikings)
2. Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) + Marquise Brown (Ravens)
3. Justin Jackson (Chargers) + Keenan Allen (Chargers)
4. Tee Higgins (Bengals) + Mark Andrews (Ravens)
5. Tyler Lockett (Seahawks) + Darnell Mooney (Bears)
6. Cooper Kupp (Rams) + Justin Jefferson (Vikings)
7. Ronald Jones (Bucs) + Ameer Abdullah (Panthers)
8. Justin Jackson (Chargers) + Nico Collins (Texans)
9. Cordarrelle Patterson (Falcons) + Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions)
10. Ronald Jones (Bucs) + Rob Gronkowski (Bucs)

I’ll see you Sunday morning at 11 a.m. ET as I join Javi Prellezo and host Zac Graham for the SuperDraft Sunday Study livestream.