Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We’ve come a long way, but there is only one game left for the NFL season. This season’s Super Bowl features the No. 1 seeds from each conference. The Philadelphia Eagles navigated the easier path to get to this point over their past few games, while the Kansas City Chiefs have been dealing with injuries galore on the offensive side of the ball. Both teams earned their way to this game, and they are very evenly matched with just six losses combined between the teams.
Let’s break this game down and see how we’re attempting to build this DFS showdown slate.
NFL DFS Super Bowl Breakdown: Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles
Eagles -1.5, O/U 50.5 (Odds From DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chiefs
Quarterback
It’s always going to feel weird when Patrick Mahomes is not the most expensive quarterback in the game, but that’s the case here, as Jalen Hurts is more expensive on DraftKings. The matchup isn’t good on paper since the Eagles were sixth in points per game allowed, first in DVOA against the pass, fourth in yards allowed and tied for sixth in touchdown passes allowed. While they had the best pressure rate of any team in the league, Mahomes had an 81.2 passer rating and an 11:4 TD: INT ratio when pressured in the regular season and that has gotten even better in the two playoff games at 114.9. The matchup in the trenches is going to be vital since the Chiefs allowed the 16th-highest pressure rate on the year but the Eagles haven’t blitzed all that much. The 14% rate in the regular season was tied for the lowest in the league, but they have turned that up a little bit in the postseason at 22%.
Now, the large caveat there is they have faced Daniel Jones and mostly Josh Johnson in their two games ahead of the Super Bowl. It’s not a criticism — they can only beat the players that they faced — but the last time Philly faced a good quarterback was in Week 16 in Dallas. This defense has also allowed the 15th-highest passer rating when faced with play-action passes, and that was something Mahomes excelled at with a 135.7 passer rating in the playoffs and 123.3 in the regular season. The Kansas City offense has leaned into the play-action pass more in the two playoff games at a 23.6% rate compared to 18.4% during the regular season. The offensive line has only allowed about a 25.5% pressure rate throughout the season and Mahomes is going to be very difficult to fade for this matchup.
Running Back
It seemed to come out of nowhere, but suddenly Isiah Pacheco appears to be the main cog in the Kansas City backfield. Not only did he take over the snaps in the AFC Championship game at 39-27, but he also had 10 carries and six targets while Jerick McKinnon had four and four. The matchup has gotten a little worse for Pacheco than it was in the earlier stages of the year but Philly finished 21st in DVOA against the run and 19th in points per game allowed. They are also allowing 4.5 yards per attempt in the postseason to go along with just a 38.6% stuff rate, which is rather uninspiring. The question becomes if we can trust the Chiefs to stick with Pacheco in the style they did, because that was the first time Pacheco saw more than three targets in any game this year.
While he was 16th in yards per touch during the regular season, he was just 46th in yards created per touch and had just 27 evaded tackles on 183 touches. His 4.7% breakaway run rate was 27th among backs but McKinnon has been the clear number two in the playoffs, despite ranking fourth in yards per touch and first in yards created per touch. The red zone work has been slanted toward Pacheco at 3-1 although both backs have a carry inside the 5. Philly has been very vulnerable up the middle with the fifth-most rushing yards allowed and 188 of Pacheco’s 830 yards have come up the middle. Furthermore, only 199 of his rushing yards have come on the outside, so he would appear to be the better fit to exploit where the Eagles were weak. Yes, the additions of defensive linemen Linval Joseph and Ndamukong Suh helped shore up a weakness but the utilization in the offense makes Pacheco my preferred target, though it’s not crazy to think McKinnon could be the higher-scoring player.
Wide Receiver
The receiving corps for the Chiefs has been a bear to predict all season long, but with the injuries they are dealing with, it could potentially be a little easier as far as who is available. Mecole Hardman is already “unlikely” to play, and Kadarius Toney is in a perpetual state of being injured. That could leave JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Justin Watson and possibly even Skyy Moore as the main four options. We’ll start with Moore, because I believe that if Toney can’t play, we’re going to see a repeat of the AFC Championship Game where Moore had seven targets on 25 routes run and 40 snaps. You could argue that they may not trust Moore much after an almost invisible rookie season but they did in the biggest game of the year to that point. With a fearsome Philly pass rush, his 4.1-yard aDOT could be key in this game and he’s been returning punts, leaving the window open for a bonus touchdown.
Smith-Schuster has played 39% of his snaps from the slot, and that’s the best spot to attack the Eagles. Only the Lions have allowed more points per game to the slot receiver than the Eagles this season and I don’t believe we have any reason to think the matchups are set in stone for any Kansas City receiver, including Moore. The most snaps in any one spot in the formation is Watson as the left receiver but that’s only 41% of the time. Everyone moves around, and that could make it a little more difficult to predict who ends up seeing the majority of James Bradberry and Darius Slay. Those two corners are under 0.19 points per route allowed and under a 56% catch rate allowed. I think that Watson might be last on my list, but the duo of Smith-Schuster and MVS is a challenge. Smith-Schuster is projected to be in the slot the most in the WR/CB Matchup Tool, but he has just three targets in two games, and his snaps continue to trend under 70%. He’s run a combined 48 routes in the two playoff games but the salary is appealing. MVS had a monster game last week but only demanded a 13.3% target share during the year with a 24.9% air yards share. With Watson and Valdes-Scantling sporting aDOTs of 18.7 and 13.9 yards during the year, I prefer Moore and Smith-Schuster in the receiving corps, assuming Hardman and Toney are indeed out for this game.
Tight End
It’s very hard not to argue that Travis Kelce has the safest outcome of any receiving option in this game. You are certainly paying for that level of security, but the Eagles were 14th in points allowed to the position and Kelce has had a 32.9% target share and a 30.4% air yards share in the postseason, not to mention six red zone targets. Valdes-Scantling is the only other receiver to have a target inside the red zone (he has two) and Kelce has scored 56.6 DK points in two games. Even despite fighting some back spasms last week, he had an 82% route participation and played 57 snaps. That was only 12 snaps off the field so there is no real concern here and we’ve learned that fading Kecle can be fatal for a lineup. At this point of the season, it’s very tough to find new things good to say about Kelce.
Defense/Special Teams
I’m not sure I’m going to be able to build a case for either defense aside from the fact that they’re not likely to be popular. Sure, they aren’t very expensive from the showdown perspective (under $4,000). However, these teams are tied for the most points per game scored at 28.7, and were two of the top three teams in yards per game, both over 384. On top of that, the Chiefs’ defense was far worse statistically than the Eagles as they were 17th in total DVOA, 15th in points allowed per game, 10th in yards per game allowed and 30th in red zone conversion rate allowed for touchdowns. That is potentially the largest problem because if the Eagles can get to the red zone, Kansas City may not be able to force field goals since the Eagles were one of the most aggressive teams on fourth down in the league. Only three teams had more attempts on fourth down and that does lower the overall potential for Kansas City, leaving me very ambivalent about playing them.
Kicker
He played just 15 games, but Harrison Butker only attempted 29 field goals this year and hit just 23 of them, under 80%. He did convert 43-of-46 extra point attempts, but it’s comforting that Butker has a good leg, with 11 of his 23 made field goals from 40 yards or more. Philly was 11th in red zone conversion rate allowed, but I’m not convinced field goals will be enough through the whole game. Both offenses are so good that they’ll likely allow traditional chances for the kicker but I could see Kansas City being more aggressive. They were only 30th in fourth-down attempts, so Butker would be my preferred kicker in this scenario.
Eagles
Quarterback
Maybe the long break between the NFC Championship and the Super Bowl has helped Jalen Hurts get a little healthier, because I think it has been obvious in the past two games that his shoulder is an issue. In his three games since returning from missing Weeks 16 and 17, he’s just 51-of-84 in passing (60.7% compared to 66.2% overall), and his yards per attempt has been no higher than 6.5 yards. During the year, it was at 8.0 yards and the deep ball has abandoned him in the past two games with just two completions on seven attempts for a 67.0 passer rating. I fully understand that’s a super small sample, but the regular season saw him go for a 134.1 passer rating and he has missed a couple of just wide-open throws that Hurts doesn’t typically miss. Kansas City only allowed the 12th-fewest yards on deep pass attempts this season and had just a 5:4 TD: INT rate.
On top of that, his 20 rush attempts in the playoffs have only generated 73 rushing yards along with two touchdowns. The eye test is just not great for him right now, but his matchup is far easier than Mahomes and that needs to be considered as well. Kansas City allowed the second-most points per game to the position, 20th in DVOA against the pass, the most touchdown passes (though only two in the playoffs), and the ninth-most passing yards. The Chiefs also blitzed about 25% of the time this year and Hurts is only at an 83.2 passer rating against the blitz but the key is pressure. Philly has only allowed a 15.7% pressure rate so far and when he was pressured, Hurts fell to a 55.4 passer rating and a 38.6% completion rate. If the Philly offensive line continues to hold up, Hurts could really do some damage and I will find a way to get both quarterbacks into some lineups.
Running Back
One aspect of the Kansas City defense that has gone in the tank through two playoff games is the run defense, as they have allowed 5.97 yards per attempt and have only a 33.3% stuff rate. They were only 15th in DVOA against the run during the season so it’s not as if this was a strength to their team in the first place, but it has been awful and the Eagles are the perfect team to make that continue. Miles Sanders may have only rushed for 42 yards in the NFC Championship game but San Francisco was arguably the best run defense in football and he should get plenty of work in this one. This is still a back that was eighth in carries, fourth in red zone touches, and fifth in rushing yards during the regular season with 11 touchdowns.
Perhaps the largest disappointment for Sanders (and the duo of Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott) is that the Eagles were 32nd in target rate for their backs. Kansas City was in the bottom five in receptions and receiving yards allowed to the position but no player in the backfield for Philly had a target share higher than 5.8% for Gainwell. Even then, Gainwell finished with just 23 receptions and that was 40th while Sanders was 45th. I will say that I’m not as worried about the snaps being split between the three backs that much over the past two games as well. Both games were blowouts and I don’t expect that script in this game. Gainwell will likely handle the two-minute drill and some third downs, while Scott may have just 1-3 touches in total. I do believe Gainwell is worth a shot at the salary on DK but Sanders has my main focus and would be one of my first Eagles in a lineup that does not have Hurts in it.
Wide Receiver
I feel fairly comfortable saying this is the first week any receiver has had a matchup number of 100 in the WR/CB Matchup Tool as A.J. Brown does. It’s been a rough two games for him as far as results but Hurts has missed him on multiple throws that were likely going for six points, so his ceiling has felt just out of reach. The Chiefs allowed the 10th-most points per game to left receivers, and that’s where Brown has spent 42% of his routes, and he’ll face a good deal of Jaylen Watson. He’s allowed a 65% catch rate and 0.25 points per route this year while Brown has produced 0.53 points per route and he was also second in yards run per route and fifth in yards per reception. The ceiling outcome is the exact type of player we want to target in showdown formats and if Hurts can hit a deep ball, Brown is likely to be the main beneficiary with a team-leading 40.8% air yards share and a 29.0% target share.
DeVonta Smith is not very far behind Brown for the matchup number, and he’s produced 0.43 points per route. It is difficult to gauge the current form either is in since the past two games have been a blowout and then they had two games without Hurts down the stretch. Smith is going to see a lot of L’Jarius Sneed, although he and Brown both do move around the formation often with at least 25% of their routes coming in the slot. The Chiefs have been moving Sneed and Trent McDuffie around lately and Sneed would be the preferred target since he’s allowed a 69% catch rate and 0.25 points per route compared to 57% and 0.16 for McDuffie. It’s interesting to note that Kansas City also allowed the eighth-most points per game to slot receivers, which would include Quez Watkins. He’s not going to get a lot of looks (just a 9.9% target share on the season) but it only takes one big play for him to hit at a salary of $1,400 on DK. We do still need Hurts to be better than he has been but the extra healing time could make all the difference.
Tight End
If you find that the duo of Brown and Smith is too expensive, feel free to play Dallas Goedert in this game. The Chiefs were only 19th in points allowed per game to the position but Goedert has walked back into seven, five, and six targets in the past three games with Hurts active. His aDOT is only 6.0 yards compared to over 9.2 for any receiver while he had a 19.4% target share in his healthy games. That has actually climbed just a bit in the past two games to 22.9% and he has the lead in red zone targets at three. The route participation jumped to 88% in the NFC Championship game and that’s in line with his 84.0% mark from the regular season. Goedert provides a significant discount from the receivers but has a role that is not that far away from them in a solid matchup.
Defense/Special Teams
They would appear to have a much clearer path to success if you can get by the idea of playing a defense against Mahomes. Philly was third in points per game allowed, sixth in total DVOA, and first in yards allowed, and they generated the most sacks in the league. This is the best of the best since the Kansas City offense was first in yards per game and tied for the most points per game and it’s a fascinating matchup. Kansas City also only allowed the third-fewest sacks in the league during the regular season and just a 26.0% pressure rate so Mahomes was difficult to bring down. If the Kansas City receivers are going to be an injured unit overall, the matchup does get a little better but there aren’t many things that I dislike more than going after Mahomes with just 13 turnovers in 19 total games.
Kicker
It’s not a surprise that Jake Elliott has only attempted 25 field goals on the season since the Eagles went for it on so many fourth downs. I highly doubt that changes in the biggest game of the season, and it’s interesting to see he has five of his 22 made field goals from 50-plus yards. That tells us that when the Eagles get closer to the end zone, they can tend to eschew the field goal. He’s likely somewhat safe for about 5-8 DK points, but the ceiling is in question since he’s hit double-digits in just five of 18 games — one game was without Hurts and one was in Week 18 when the Eagles just nursed a lead for most of the game. I would rather play Butker if you just play one kicker.
Core Plays
Patrick Mahomes
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Miles Sanders
