Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
There’s no better time to get some sports betting action in than the NFL playoffs, and the Super Bowl is officially here. Whether it’s sides and totals or player props, we have you covered here at FTN with our NFL betting models and NFL player props tool. But before we put some wagers in play, it’s important to know a thing or two about both of the teams competing in this year’s Big Game.
Super Bowl 58 Betting Breakdown
We saw this same Super Bowl matchup just four seasons ago. In fact, this is the eighth Super Bowl rematch in NFL history. In the previous seven, the winner of the first game has won five times and lost just twice. If that trend continues, the Chiefs will become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since the 2003-04 Patriots. Of course, it won’t be easy. Kansas City is the No. 3 seed from the AFC. We haven’t seen a No. 3 seed win since the 2006 Colts.
But experience is a plus for the Chiefs. This is Andy Reid’s fifth Super Bowl appearance. Only Don Shula (6) and Bill Belichick (9) have more. Patrick Mahomes has also been around the block a few times. Mahomes has 14 career playoff wins, which is tied with Terry Bradshaw, John Elway and Peyton Manning for the third most by a quarterback in NFL history. Only Tom Brady (35) and Joe Montana (16) have won more playoff games.
Mahomes can become the fifth quarterback to win three Super Bowls (Tom Brady, Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw and Troy Aikman) and the third player to win three Super Bowl MVPs (Brady, Montana). If he manages the latter, Mahomes will join Magic Johnson as the only players in NFL/NBA/NHL/MLB history to win three championship round MVPs before age 29. The good news for Mahomes: He has never lost at Allegiant Stadium (4-0).
Of course, Mahomes is coming off an up-and-down regular season. He had to navigate the year with a lackluster cast of receivers who led the league in drops (28) and drop rate (12.0%) in the regular season. The good news is that group has only dopped two balls in the postseason. Mahomes will need them to be sure handed in this one, and it should be noted that he has had a lot of success against the 49ers’ zone coverage. He absolutely demolished the 49ers in Week 7 of last season, racking up 423 passing yards and three scores. Against zone, he went for a massive 15.1 yards per attempt.
The connection between Mahomes and Travis Kelce has been historically good. The duo has connected for the most touchdowns (17) by a quarterback-receiver duo in playoff history. Mahomes has completed 80.9% of his passes to Kelce in the playoffs, which is the best of any duo in the last 15 seasons with a minimum of 50 attempts. Kelce enters this contest with 12 straight playoff games of 70-plus receiving yards. He blew by that number in the Conference Championship round, notching his eighth postseason game of 100-plus receiving yards. That’s tied with Jerry Rice for the most all-time.
But it can’t just be Kelce stepping up if the Chiefs want to win this game. Isiah Pacheco has been a major factor in the postseason for the Chiefs over the last two season. He has the sixth-most playoff rushing yards (451) in a player’s first two NFL seasons. He faces a 49ers defense that was tough against the run in the regular season, but has faltered in the playoffs. The 49ers are allowing the most rushing yards per game (159.0) in a postseason entering the Super Bowl since the 1966 Packers.
Look for the Chiefs to attack the 49ers on the edge. San Francisco has allowed 231 rushing yards and 8.3 yards per carry on designed runs outside tackles this postseason. We’ve seen two runs of 40-plus yards coming outside the tackles against the 49ers this postseason. This has been an area of strength for the Chiefs, as Andy Reid’s squad averages 5.0 yards per carry on designed runs outside the tackle this postseason.
The 49ers enter this contest as the No. 1 seed from the NFC. Top seeds have won the Super Bowl 26 times. A win will be the sixth in franchise history. That would tie the Patriots and Steelers for the most by any franchise. Of course, San Francisco hasn’t won a title since 1994. They had a shot at breaking that drought in 2019, but the 49ers blew a 10-point halftime lead and lost 31-20 to Kansas City. That wasn’t the only time head coach Kyle Shanahan was part of a Super Bowl blown lead. He was the Falcons offensive coordinator in the unforgettable 28-3 blown lead to the Patriots in 2016.
Shanahan has the chance to make father-son history in this contest. A win would make him and his father Mike Shanahan the first father-son duo in NFL/NBA/NHL/MLB history to each win a championship as a head coach. We could also see the second father-son player duo win titles for the same team, as Christian McCaffrey’s father Ed won with the 49ers in 1994. The only duo in league history to do so is Steve and Zak DeOssie for the Giants.
McCaffrey is coming off an outstanding regular season and is the first rushing title winner to make the Super Bowl since Shaun Alexander in 2005. A 49ers win will make McCaffrey the first rushing title winner to win the Super Bowl since Terrell Davis in 1998. He’d also become the first Super Bowl winner as the highest-paid running back in the league since Marshall Faulk in 1999.
He’s been an absolute monster in the postseason, scoring a touchdown in five straight playoff games for the 49ers. That’s the longest streak in franchise history. If he scores in the Super Bowl, he’ll join Terrell Davis and Marcus Allen for most consecutive playoff games with a touchdown to start an NFL career. Given his productivity during the regular season, it’s hard not to like his changes. His 25 touchdowns this year (including playoffs) are the most since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006.
The 49ers have had a lot of success since trading for McCaffrey last season, but it isn’t just him. Brock Purdy and Deebo Samuel have also been major factors. In fact, the 49ers are 15-1 when Purdy, McCaffrey and Samuel all play the entire game. They’re 6-5 in all other games since Purdy’s first career start.
For Purdy this game is a full circle moment. He was the last pick in the NFL draft just 652 days before Super Bowl Sunday. That draft also took place in Las Vegas, so he has the chance to become a Super Bowl winner in the same city. As a seventh-round selection, Purdy accounts for 0.4% of the 49ers’ salary cap. That’s the lowest by a Super Bowl starting quarterback in NFL history. Meanwhile, Mahomes represents 16.5% of the Chiefs’ salary cap. If the Chiefs win, it will be the second highest by a Super Bowl-winning quarterback all-time. The only one higher: Patrick Mahomes at 17.2% in 2022.
In addition to McCaffrey and Samuel, Purdy also has Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle at his disposal. Aiyuk was hyper-efficient in the regular season, ranking third in yards per route run (3.1). Only Nico Collins and Tyreek Hill have higher numbers. Aiyuk also posted the most 100-yard games (7) by a 49ers receiver in a season Jerry Rice in 1995. But it isn’t just Aiyuk. Samuel is also very efficient and effective. He’s led all wide receivers in yards after catch per reception in each of the last four seasons. Samuel is also the NFL’s all-time leader in rushing touchdowns by a wide receiver (19).
Betting Records This Season
KC: 12-7-1 ATS, Over is 6-14
SF: 9-10 ATS, Over is 11-8
Projected Score
SF 24.3 – KC 22.8
Jeff’s Game Pick
Kansas City (+102 on the ML)
Best Bets
(Odds per DraftKings Sportsobook)
Chiefs First Drive Result – TD (+215)
Kansas City has scored on its opening drive in eight straight playoff games. That’s the longest streak by any team since at least 1991. Over that span, the Chiefs have scored six touchdowns and kicked two field goals.
George Karlaftis Over 0.25 Sacks (+110)
The Chiefs got after the quarterback in the regular season, ranking second in the league with 57 sacks. George Karlaftis tied for the team lead with a career-high 10.5 sacks. He’s also notched 2.5 sacks with an additional four quarterback hits in the postseason.
Gatorade Color – Orange (+300)
Admittedly, this is just a fun one. But if you didn’t know, orange is the goat Gatorade color. Since 2001, we’ve seen orange five times, including the Chiefs victory in 2019. That’s the most over that span. Yes, it was purple last year, but orange offers slightly more bang for your buck compared to purple’s +250 odds.
