Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Everyone loves to bet individual player props for the Super Bowl, adding even more interest to the biggest sporting event of the season. Using our incredible tools at FTN Bets, we can analyze each player’s strengths and project where they can see success in the grand finale of the 2023 NFL season.
Here are my thoughts on each individual skill position player for the San Francisco 49ers for Super Bowl LVIII.
Brock Purdy, QB
The 24-year-old Brock Purdy has been quite a story for San Francisco over his first two NFL season. After guiding the 49ers to an 8-0 record as a starter before a devastating injury in last year’s NFC Championship game, Purdy entered the 2023 season as a polarizing player. Was he just a one-year wonder, or could he solidify his role as the 49ers starting quarterback?
Purdy answered those questions with an MVP-caliber campaign, finishing fifth among all quarterbacks in passing yards (4280), third in passing touchdowns (31), and first in yards per attempt (9.6). Per our quarterback passing stats tool, Purdy ranked second in completion percentage (69.4%) among all passers with at least 400 attempts. His passing yardage total was also even more impressive when you consider he played one fewer game than most of his peers.
Purdy enjoyed a fantastic season, and now looks to finish off his sophomore campaign with a Super Bowl victory.
Christian McCaffrey, RB
Christian McCaffrey’s dominance was on full display this season, finishing first in rushing yards (1459), first in total touchdowns (21) and first in fantasy points per game (24.5). He finished third in receptions (67) and second in receiving yards (564), solidifying his status as the best all-around running back in the NFL.
The most incredible statistics come from our FTN Player Utilization Tool, which shows just how efficient McCaffrey was in 2023. Despite producing only 57.9% of San Francisco’s team rushing attempts, he accounted for 64.4% of the 49ers rushing yards. Despite playing only 16 games, McCaffrey also accounted for 38.8% of the team’s total opportunities, third among all running backs.
Brandon Aiyuk, WR
It was a breakout season for Brandon Aiyuk, who was the dominant receiving option for San Francisco throughout the season. Per our FTN Player Utilization Tool, Aiyuk led all 49ers receivers (George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey included) in target percentage (24.0%), reception percentage (24.1%), yards percentage (31.5%) and tied Deebo Samuel in team touchdown percentage (22.6%).
Aiyuk was relatively quiet during the NFC playoffs, totaling just six receptions and 100 receiving yards, and had just one reception for 10 yards in last year’s Super Bowl. Facing a Kansas City defense that ranked fifth-best in DVOA against opposing WR1s this season, Aiyuk faces another stiff challenge in the biggest game of the season.
Deebo Samuel, WR
Deebo Samuel’s explosive ability and versatility is critical to the success of this San Francisco offense. Using our FTN Splits Tool, you can see the dramatic difference between this 49ers attack with and without Deebo Samuel on the field. In the two games without Samuel, this San Francisco offense struggled across the board.
The big difference is the increase in rushing success, particularly big play rushing gains. With Samuel on the field the 49ers produce more offensive snaps, more offensive drives, which leads to 85.5% more touchdowns. San Francisco should have a healthy Samuel for next Sunday, a huge weapon in their battle with Kansas City.
George Kittle, TE
Travis Kelce called George Kittle “the best tight end in the NFL.” While that may be overly humble, Kittle certainly is among the league’s best in every critical aspect. Per our FTN Player Utilization Tool, Kittle brings quality performance in all major statistics across the board.
Kittle is one of the few tight ends (or players) in the league who brings over a 20% target share, receptions share, receiving yardage share, targets per route run and air yards percentage. He faces a tough matchup against the Chiefs, who finished the season ranked tenth-best in DVOA to the position. The big advantage Kittle has over Kelce in this year’s Super Bowl, San Francisco has significantly more offensive weapons than Kansas City, giving Kittle more opportunities to exploit single coverage.
Jake Moody, K
Jake Moody was selected in the third round of this year’s NFL Draft by the 49ers and had a good overall season. He made 21 of 25 field goal attempts (84%), but he missed one kick between 30-39 yards and two kicks from 40-49 yards. Moody did make 2 of his 3 kicks from beyond 50 yards, including a season-high 57-yarder. However, the concerning part is when Moody misses his kicks.
Moody missed two kicks in a 19-17 loss at Cleveland, including the potential game-winner as time expired. He has missed one kick in each of the San Francisco playoff games, both 48-yarders (one was blocked). Moody has shown promise during this first season, but there is certainly concern about a rookie kicker who has struggled in the postseason.
