Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Everyone loves to bet individual player props for the Super Bowl, adding even more interest to the biggest sporting event of the season. Using our incredible tools at FTN Bets, we can analyze each player’s strengths and project where they can see success in the grand finale of the 2023 NFL season.
Here are my thoughts on each individual skill position player for the Chiefs for Super Bowl LVIII.
Patrick Mahomes, QB
Still only 28 years old, Patrick Mahomes is making a case for being the greatest quarterback of all time. In just six seasons, he has already been named to five Pro Bowls, earned first-team All-Pro twice, won an MVP and Offensive Player of the Year Award (2018), won Super Bowl LIV and LVII as well as Super Bowl MVP twice, and is now playing in his fourth Super Bowl. Through the first 100 games of his career, Mahomes ranks first overall among all quarterbacks in NFL history in wins (80), passing yards (29,918) and passing touchdowns (238). Just a legendary start to his career.
The Chiefs finished 11-6 following a 14-3 (and championship) season. Mahomes yet again finds himself as an underdog in the Super Bowl for the second straight season. Using the FTN Splits Tool, it’s clear to see Mahomes thrives in these opportunities. In the 14 games where Kansas City has been the betting underdog with Mahomes under center, he has seen dramatic increases in passing touchdowns (30%), passing yards and fantasy points per game regardless of scoring format.
Isiah Pacheco, RB
Despite being selected as a seventh-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, Isiah Pacheco’s work ethic and determination established him as Kansas City’s lead running back the past two seasons. Despite playing three fewer games than his rookie season, Pacheco posted career-highs in rushing yards (935), total touchdowns (9), targets (49), receptions (44) and receiving yards (244). He is a true three-down bellcow running back.
Although he’s seen as an angry, grinder back, our FTN NFL Directional Tool illuminates how Pacheco uses his 4.37 speed to maximize efficiency. He ranked fifth in yards per attempt (4.9) among running backs with at least 170 carries and was even better in isolated settings. Pacheco averaged 5.5 YPA (fifth-best), and was first overall on inside runs to the right, averaging a mind-blowing 6.9 YPA. Facing a San Francisco defense that only ranked 15th in rush defense DVOA, Pacheco should again replicate that efficiency directly up the middle of the field.
Rashee Rice, WR
I remember talking to Kansas City Star beat reporter Jesse Newell about rookie Rashee Rice during the offseason. While Rice’s talent and draft capital (second round) were strong, the general feeling was head coach Andy Reid would prefer to bring the rookie along slowly this season. When the Chiefs veteran wide receivers all struggled, Rice was forced into the spotlight and delivered in a big way.
Rice has the clear WR1 role in Kansas City and led all Chiefs wideouts in targets (102), receptions (79), receiving yards (938) and touchdowns (7). Per FTN’s Player Utilization Tool, Rice even dominated all secondary receiving statistics such as reception percentage and targets per route run.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR
The 29-year-old veteran wideout had a disappointing overall season but still was an active member of the Kansas City offense. Marquez Valdes-Scantling actually led all Chiefs wideouts with a 62.2% route percentage, over 8% higher than even Rice. The problem, as always, is he struggled to catch the football. His 5.2% reception percentage was the absolute lowest among all NFL wide receivers with at least 400 routes run.
There have been recent signs of life from Valdes-Scantling, who had four receptions and 100 receiving yards over the last two playoff games. There is some positive history here, with Valdes-Scantling posting four receptions, 115 receiving yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl loss to Tampa Bay just four years ago. He won’t see a lot of targets but is always a threat for a monster touchdown reception.
Travis Kelce, TE
He may be the best tight end of all-time, but we finally started to see some regression from the 34-year-old Kansas City veteran. He still finished third at the position in receptions (93) and second in receiving yards (984), but his five touchdowns ranked in a five-way tie for third among all tight ends. However, he is still an elite weapon in any one-game matchup and has been especially superb in the Super Bowl. Travis Kelce has totaled 22 receptions, 257 receiving yards and two touchdowns in Kansas City’s three prior Super Bowls.
Using our FTN Air Yards Tool, we see that Kelce still brings elite talent to next Sunday’s matchup with San Francisco. He finished first at the position in half-PPR formats with 11.71 FPPG. Kelce still brings big-play ability, a rarity at the tight end position, with 20.52% of Kansas City’s air yards during the regular season. He faces a tough matchup against the 49ers, who finished the season fourth-best in DVOA to the position, meaning any success in Super Bowl LVIII will certainly be earned.
Harrison Butker, K
The Chiefs defeated the Bengals in the AFC Championships on the leg on Harrison Butker’s 45-yard field goal. The veteran Kansas City kicker ranks second all-time in field goal percentage at 89.1%. Butker had the most accurate kicking year of his career, making 33-of-35 field goal attempts, translating to an insane 94.3%. Butker was a perfect 12-for-12 on field goals of 40 yards or longer, including 5-for-5 on all kicks from 50 yards or greater. For the second season in a row, Butker converted a field goal of 60 yards or more.
Butker has been perfect on field goals and extra points in Kansas City Super Bowls entering last season but missed a 42-yarder against the Eagles. He is still 10-for-10 on extra points and a solid 6-of-7 on field goals. In the Chiefs’ 2020 loss to Tampa Bay, he went 3-for-3 on field goals, including a 52-yarder. Butker is a reliable weapon for Kansas City in Super Bowl LVIII.
