NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2023 fantasy football season. All summer, our analysts, two at a time, will preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming season. We’ll pick a pair of sleepers, a pair of busts and a pair of bold predictions. Sometimes they’ll be the same pick! Sometimes they will directly disagree! And that’s fine. Today: The New York Jets.
Below, Jeremy Popielarz and Daniel Kelley tackle the Jets, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2023 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: New York Jets
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Popielarz: Allen Lazard
Kelley: Israel Abanikanda
Biggest Bust
Popielarz: Breece Hall
Kelley: Aaron Rodgers
Bold Prediction
Popielarz: Garrett Wilson is a top-5 wide receiver
Kelley: The Jets finish closer to last in the East than first
The Explanations
Sleepers
Popielarz: Allen Lazard
In what seemed like a move to lure Aaron Rodgers to New York, the Jets brought in wide receiver Allen Lazard on a four-year deal worth $44 million. Whether this was the reason or not, Rodgers is in New York – which is good news for all pass-catchers. Lazard amassed 2,236 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns on 169 receptions in his 4+ years in Green Bay. He has steadily improved yearly as a fantasy asset, climaxing last season when he finished as WR35 with 175.5 PPR points in 15 games. Within this were 11 double-digit performances and five top-24 finishes.
In New York, he will likely be second fiddle to standout second-year receiver Garrett Wilson, who emerged last year as a perimeter weapon. This will allow Lazard to benefit from softer coverage on the inside, and his blocking ability could pave the way for him to be the lone wide receiver in one-WR sets. Finishing inside the top 15 in 2023 is unlikely, but a consistent top-30 wide receiver is within reach.
Kelley: Israel Abanikanda
At some point, we’re going to see enough from running backs in their first year back from an ACL tear (J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook and so many more) to stop investing in them. I’ll take the chances on missing on the Adrian Peterson-esque medical marvels and just give them a year to recover on the field before buying back in. That’s a long way of saying I’m going to be low man on Breece Hall this year, who is currently RB13 by ADP. (He’d be my bust, below, if I weren’t already making that point here.) And with the Jets rumored to have been strongly considering drafting Jahmyr Gibbs if he had fallen to them, poking around at Dalvin Cook and drafting a running back, it feels like they agree with me.
So if Hall struggles, who is most likely to benefit? Our candidates:
- Michael Carter — Topped out at 13 carries in a game last year, topped 80 rushing yards in a game once in 30 career games. Will be a receiving threat and not much more.
- Zonovan Knight — His “breakout” last year consisted of 46 carries for 230 yards (5.0 YPC) and a touchdown over three games, which is fine but only remarkable because no one had ever heard the name “Zonovan” before that. After that? He had 39 carries for 70 yards (1.8 YPC) and no scores over the last month of the season. I’m not a believer.
- Israel Abanikanda — Fifth-rounder out of Pitt. Abanikanda isn’t much of a receiver and doesn’t profile as ever becoming one, but he can be an early-down grinder. His one-cut style lends him to being a Barkley-esque guy who averages about a yard a carry on every carry except the handful of total breakaway runs.
You can obviously tell my pick. In PPR leagues, Carter’s fine as an “I just need 8 points” guy, but Abanikanda is the one who could offer you a game of 120 yards and 2 scores on 10 carries, with eight of those carries totaling 25 yards and the other two being the monster scores. Maybe better for best ball, but regardless, I’m in.
Busts
Popielarz: Breece Hall
Breece Hall’s hot start to his career was derailed by an ACL injury in Week 7. But before that, he put up over 660 scrimmage yards and five touchdowns. This impressive start carried over into fantasy with six top-36 finishes and five straight top-15 finishes – it would have been six had he not been injured in Week 7. He showed an impressive dual-threat ability, catching 19 of his 31 targets for 218 yards and a score. Via FTN’s Stats Hub, we can see Hall forced .20 missed tackles per attempt en route to 330 yards after contact.
Hall is currently being touted as a top-12 running back headed into 2023, especially with Aaron Rodgers now at the helm. However, we have to remember that outside some of the all-time greats, most running backs who return from an ACL injury tend to struggle in the first year back. Since 2012, there have been 11 running backs who have torn their ACL, and they averaged 9.9 games played, 138 touches, 794.5 yards, 3.9 touchdowns and 10.1 fantasy points per game in year one post-ACL. Since 2015, only Dalvin Cook managed more than 11 PPR points per week in the first post-ACL season. I am avoiding Hall since he will likely fall short of his ADP.
Kelley: Aaron Rodgers
By ADP, Rodgers is probably more or less fine in fact, if only because he’s currently going as QB15 and any quarterback you get in that range who stays healthy can’t really be a bust. But I would not be at all surprised if that ADP starts to get juiced up as we get closer to the season and exciting clips from Jets camp come out and fun soundbites from Rodgers get quoted. And at that point I’ll be scared off. This is a guy who turns 40 during the season, who just had his highest full-season INT rate since 2010, whose passer rating reached its lowest point ever as a starter (in an era when passer ratings are higher than ever), who famously bristled at the media in Green Bay and now is in New York. Assuming he stays healthy, Rodgers’ floor is probably plenty high, but his ceiling is low.
Bold Predictions
Popielarz: Garrett Wilson is a top-5 wide receiver
Garrett Wilson exploded onto the scene in Week 2 with a 30-point week, but this was the start of a roller-coaster season. Wilson produced nine double-digit games with three 20-plus-point weeks but also had seven games under 7 PPR points. He still finished the season as WR21 with 215.7 PPR points on the back of his first 1,000-yard season. Wilson posted 1,103 yards and four touchdowns on 83 receptions. Most of this production came without Zach Wilson under center – Wilson averaged over 8 more PPR points per game in games without Wilson – Via FTN Splits Tool.
Looking forward, Wilson will be catching passes from future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, who will bring stability to the quarterback position. This will also bring an improvement and stability to the offense as well, with Wilson a beneficiary. The second-year wideout will easily surpass his 12.7 PPR points per game last year and will likely flirt with the 20 ppg mark in 2023. He should be a top-5 PPR wide receiver in 2023.
Kelley: The Jets Finish Closer to Last in the East Than First
This obviously isn’t a fantasy prediction, but it’s a prediction nonetheless. As it stands, I’m pegging the Jets for third in the AFC East, and I’m more likely to lower them based on what happens the rest of the summer (Patriots sign DeAndre Hopkins?) than move them up.
The Jets appear to have fallen into a common trap this offseason, where they assume everything that worked last year (the defense made a big leap, they took advantage of some very weak scheduling to even win the games they did, Breece Hall was set up to be Offensive Rookie of the Year before Garrett Wilson actually was) will continue to work while everything that went wrong will get fixed. Aaron Rodgers will almost certainly be better than Zach Wilson. But unless everything else that went right does so again, this isn’t a true-talent 7-10 team trying to win 2-4 more games; this is a 5-win team just hoping to be competitive.
