Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions: The 2023 Kansas City Chiefs

Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2023 fantasy football season. All summer, our analysts, two at a time, will preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming season. We’ll pick a pair of sleepers, a pair of busts and a pair of bold predictions. Sometimes they’ll be the same pick! Sometimes they will directly disagree! And that’s fine. Today, the series concludes with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Below, Sam Choudhury and Nick Makowitz tackle the Chiefs, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”

2023 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Kansas City Chiefs

The Answers

Favorite Sleeper

Choudhury: Richie James
Makowitz: Justyn Ross

Biggest Bust

Choudhury: Kadarius Toney
Makowitz: Isiah Pacheco

Bold Prediction

Choudhury: Rashee Rice is the Chiefs’ WR1
Makowitz: Skyy Moore Is a Top-30 WR

The Explanations

Sleepers

Choudhury: Richie James

The Chiefs signed former Giants wide receiver Richie James to a one-year contract after a breakout 2022 campaign. James quietly led the G-Men in receptions last season, tied with Saquon Barkley for first on the team with 57. He posted a career-high 569 receiving yards to go along with four touchdowns. James has already been turning heads during training camp running with the first-team offense. During his four-year career, James has primarily operated as a special teams player, handling 57 punt returns and 47 kick returns. If James can win the starting role as a returner, he’d be a lock to be active on game day with a chance to see the field on offense.  

Makowitz: Justyn Ross

Any Chiefs receiver except Skyy Moore is a deep, deep sleeper (hibernator?) at this point, but Justyn Ross may be the deepest, considering his spot on the roster is not yet guaranteed. After his freshman season at Clemson, Ross was a 1,000-yard receiver, national champion and projected first-round draft pick. Since then, he’s suffered a spine and neck injury that forced him to miss his junior year and a foot injury that caused him to miss the last few games of his senior year as well as his entire rookie season. Still, the undrafted free agent is healthy as of now and was reportedly working with the first team on day one of OTAs.

Whether he actually becomes an every-week starter for the Chiefs or not, Ross’ fantasy relevance will likely rely on touchdowns. During his first two college seasons – when he was healthy – Ross registered a touchdown rate of 15% which would be a top-five rank in the NFL (yes, touchdown rates are generally higher in college). Regardless, Ross is a big, skilled receiver who could take hold of a job that was woefully executed by Marquez Valdes-Scantling last season. If he sticks around, and stays intact, Justyn Ross could be more than just a depth piece for Kansas City.

Busts

Choudhury: Kadarius Toney

The Chiefs traded for Kadarius Toney in the middle of last season, sending a 2023 third-round compensatory pick and a 2023 sixth-round pick to the Giants. Toney played 10 games with Kansas City, including the playoffs, logging 21 receptions on 27 targets for 221 yards and three touchdowns. The production wasn’t great, but Toney played less than 45% of snaps in every outing. Even in a limited sample, Toney commanded targets at an elite level, earning a 29.4% targets per route run rate from Weeks 9 on. He also saw a handful of gadget plays, totaling 8 carries for 96 yards and a touchdown. Despite the tantalizing upside, Toney has played in just 19 of 34 regular season games since entering the league, unable to stay healthy. He already suffered a knee injury on the first day of training camp and is questionable to even suit up in Week 1.  

Makowitz: Isiah Pacheco

Deeming Isiah Pacheco a bust does not mean I have any confidence in any Chiefs running back. It just means I think RB27 is too rich for a non-pass-catching, timeshare running back in a pass-first offense. Pacheco is a hard-nosed runner, but he doesn’t jump off the page metrically. He was average when it came to breaking big runs and earning yards after contact, and he was well below average at forcing missed tackles. It’s possible for mostly one-dimensional running backs to be fantasy relevant, but those players usually have a bigger piece of the pie (Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb). According to our rushing utilization stats, Pacheco ranked 44th in the NFL with just a 41% share of all the opportunities in the Kansas City backfield. Sure, he got more involved down the stretch, but Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be back in the fold this season to steal some groundwork.

Ultimately, without exceptional ability to break big runs, a lead back workload or significant receiving opportunity, Pacheco’s success is directly tied to a high touchdown rate. On a team with Patrick Mahomes and his projected 36.5 touchdowns, I don’t want to rely on rushing TDs. I’d much rather have all of the running backs going just after Pacheco – Javonte Williams, Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery, James Cook — which makes him a sell at his current price. 

Bold Predictions

Choudhury: Rashee Rice Is the Chiefs’ WR1

The Chiefs traded up in the second round, sending picks No. 63, 122 and 249 to the Lions in exchange for picks No. 55 and 194. With their first pick of Day 2 (No. 55), Kansas City added SMU wide receiver Rashee Rice, hoping to fill the void left by JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman in free agency. Last season, Rice earned first-team All-American Athletic Conference honors, finishing top-five in the FBS in receptions (96) and third in receiving yards (1,355). He also led the Mustangs in receiving touchdowns, finding the end zone 10 times in 12 games. Outside of Travis Kelce, no other pass catcher on the Chiefs roster has surpassed 700 receiving yards. There are a lot of targets vacated targets in Kansas City, and Rice is as good to lead all receivers on the team. 

Makowitz: Skyy Moore Is a Top-30 WR

Days after reports of another Kadarius Toney knee injury, Skyy Moore can barely be called a sleeper, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t going to significantly outperform his ADP. There’s a growing sentiment that none of the Chiefs’ wide receivers will be consistently relevant and that stems largely from the fact that none were last season. Heading into 2023, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are gone, and the aforementioned Toney is questionable to start the season. Those absences give Skyy Moore the chance to step up. Last season, Moore split his time between the outside and the slot which should allow him to fill whichever role Kansas City needs him to fill during training camp and eventually the regular season.

While his playing time was sporadic, he was actually better than most other Chiefs’ receivers when given the chance. He trailed only the oft-injured Toney in targets per route run (21%) and yards per route run (1.7) per the FTN Utilization Tool. In addition to posting solid target-earning metrics in a crowded wide receiver room, Moore showed the coaching staff and Patrick Mahomes that he can make plays with the ball in his hands. He ranked in the 95th percentile among receivers with 20-plus receptions with 6.73 yards after the catch on average. 

With his ability to play multiple roles in the offense, his skill after the catch and the openness of the Kansas City receiver room, Skyy Moore could be in line for a surprisingly big year if he earns the opportunity.