NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Tyler Loechner and Josh Larky continue with the 2022 Sleepers, Busts, and Bets series to preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming year. Next up: The Denver Broncos.
Tyler and Josh will list their picks with confidence in “The Answers,” then expand upon their picks with more detailed reasoning in “The Explanation.”
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Larky: Albert Okwuegbunam
Loechner: Melvin Gordon
Biggest Bust
Larky: Javonte Williams
Loechner: Jerry Jeudy
Boldest Bet
Larky: Melvin Gordon goes for 1,100 total yards (again)
Loechner: Courtland Sutton finishes as a top-15 fantasy WR
The Explanation
Sleepers
Larky: Albert Okwuegbunam
When the Denver Broncos traded for Russell Wilson, in addition to the draft picks and Drew Lock, the team sent away their former first-round TE selection in Noah Fant. Rather than immediately going out and signing a veteran like Rob Gronkowski, the team took Greg Dulcich in Round 3 of the 2022 draft. Dulcich could very well be their starting TE of the future, but TEs come along slowly in the NFL. For 2022, Albert Okwuegbunam is the clear-cut starting TE on the Broncos, but is he actually good?
Albert O came into the NFL with rare physical gifts, standing 6’6”, weighing nearly 260 pounds, and running a 4.49 40-time (AJ Brown also ran a 4.49, for reference). Though limited in his reps for 2020 and 2021, Albert O has been more efficient than Travis Kelce in both yards per route run and targets per route run since entering the league. Let me pump the brakes and let you know I am most certainly NOT telling you Albert O is going to be Travis Kelce. However, it’s very telling that the three most important factors for breakout TEs are athleticism, efficiency and a strong overall offensive environment. Albert O has this triumvirate locked up for 2022, and he’s a sneaky candidate to outscore big names like George Kittle and T.J. Hockenson in fantasy football.
Loechner: Melvin Gordon
Javonte Williams is the RB12 coming off draft boards. That makes sense.
Melvin Gordon is the RB36. That does not.
These two players finished within 20 expected fantasy points and 16 actual fantasy points of each other. It was as close to a 50-50 backfield as you could possibly find last year in terms of usage — both raw usage as well as usage by situation. But it still might surprise some to know Gordon, not Williams, led the duo in red-zone carries, goal-line carries and red-zone targets. Not by much, but he did.
And the Broncos loved Gordon so much they brought him back for 2022. Should we expect a full 50-50 split again this year? No. But a 65-35, or even 60-40, seems very reasonable. Gordon will still get his this year and is a prime slept-on vet player to target later in drafts.
Busts
Larky: Javonte Williams
Javonte Williams is one of the true elite RBs on a per touch basis, which is why the Broncos traded up in the second round of the 2021 NFL Draft to select him. He’s a special talent as a runner, and he’s a capable receiver too. However, you cannot select Williams early in your fantasy football drafts because he has always been a committee back. When I select a RB in the first two rounds in fantasy, I want them getting the vast majority of touches in their backfield each week. With Javonte, that scenario is unlikely.
As a true freshman at North Carolina, he was fourth on the team with 43 carries and 11th on the team with eight receptions. In his sophomore season, he had 166 carries and 17 receptions. Michael Carter had 11 more carries and four more receptions even though both played 13 games. As a junior in 2020, Javonte had 157 carries (just one more than Carter) and 25 receptions (the same amount as Carter).
Despite playing in one more game than Melvin Gordon last year, both backs finished with 203 carries, though Javonte finished with 43 receptions to Gordon’s 28. Unfortunately for Javonte, Gordon had 46 red-zone touches to Javonte’s 37. Even though Gordon re-signed, I would be surprised if the split continues to be 50-50 like it was last season. I do expect Javonte to take on slightly more work in 2022, but the Broncos clearly don’t view him as a workhorse RB. Javonte was the RB22 per game last year with 12.1 PPR points per game. He often goes before D’Andre Swift in drafts, though Swift averaged over 16 PPR points per game despite leaving a couple games early due to injury. I struggle to see Javonte helping you win your fantasy league unless Gordon goes down for the season, and he looks like an early bust candidate.
Loechner: Jerry Jeudy
Jerry Jeudy is currently coming off draft boards as the WR22 — a few draft slots ahead of Courtland Sutton. This draft position and ordering is not unforgivable, but it feels a lot closer to Jeudy’s ceiling than his floor. Jeudy is fresh off a 38-467-0 season (10 games). He had no games over 80 receiving yards and maxed out at six receptions in a game.
How much stock should we put into these WRs’ 2021 campaigns? Probably not too much (going from Drew Lock to Russell Wilson at QB is a true seismic shift) — but I still think Jeudy’s anemic 2021 season is worth pointing out. Was it all bad QB play? It’s a fair thing to wonder for a player you have to draft as your No. 2 WR if you want him.
And are we positive the Broncos pass much more with Wilson? Denver ran the ball 44% of the time last year — the 10th-highest rate in the league — and they retained their RBBC for 2022. Yes, Wilson is on the team now, but Seattle (43.3% run rate) had a nearly identical run rate to the Broncos last year.
Add in the fact I think Sutton gets a bigger boost with Wilson (compared to Jeudy) — see below for more on that — and I’m just not bullish on Jeudy as a fantasy WR2 that you have to draft ahead of his teammate anyway.
I’ll caveat all of this by saying a Jeudy breakout season is more likely in 2022 than ever before. He will undoubtedly be more fantasy-relevant than ever. I just think that, compared to cost, he has the biggest bust potential of Denver’s fantasy-relevant players.
Bets
Larky: Melvin Gordon goes over 1,100 yards
- Melvin Gordon 2016: 1,416 total yards, 12 TDs
- Melvin Gordon 2017: 1,581 total yards, 12 TDs
- Melvin Gordon 2018: 1,375 total yards, 14 TDs
- Melvin Gordon 2019 (contract hold-out first month of season): 908 total yards, 9 TDs
- Melvin Gordon 2020: 1,144 total yards, 10 TDs
- Melvin Gordon 2021: 1,131 total yards, 10 TDs
I will continue to bet on the player with first-round pick pedigree, who reached 21.52 mph, according to Next Gen Stats, in Week 2 of the 2021 season, the fastest speed by anyone that week. Melvin Gordon is 29 years old, but he hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, and should once again command a substantial amount of work in one of the NFL’s most improved offenses. Posting 1,100 total yards is enough to be a thorn in the side for Javonte Williams fantasy football managers, and that’s roughly what I’m expecting from Gordon in 2022.
Loechner: Courtland Sutton finishes as top-15 WR
I actually consider the Broncos to be the No. 1 breakout offense for fantasy purposes in 2022, and Courtland Sutton is a big reason why. The addition of Wilson is a big boost to Sutton, as the duo should connect on deep balls often next year:
Sutton had 29 red-zone targets, seven end-zone targets, and one of which resulted in a TD last year (14% TD rate on those targets). Last year, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were able to convert 10-of-24 end-zone targets into TDs (42% TD rate on those targets).
