Sleepers, Busts and Bets: The 2022 Arizona Cardinals

Jeremy Popielarz and Dan Fornek continue with the 2022 Sleepers, Busts and Bets series to preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming year. Next up: The Arizona Cardinals.

Jeremy and Dan will list their picks with confidence in “The Answers,” Then expand upon their picks with more details reason in “The Explanation.”

The Answers

Favorite Sleeper

Popielarz: Rondale Moore
Fornek: Rondale Moore

Biggest Bust

Popielarz: Zach Ertz
Fornek: James Conner

Boldest Bet

Popielarz: Darrel Williams Finishes as an RB2
Fornek: Kyler Murray Finishes as the Overall QB1

The Explanation

Sleeper

Popielarz: Rondale Moore

As a rookie last season, Rondale Moore produced 435 yards on 54 receptions on 64 targets. The most amazing stat from his rookie season was his 105.1% YAC yard percentage, as he produced 457 yards after the catch, per the FTN Fantasy advanced receiving stats. That came thanks to an average depth of target of a minuscule 1.49 yards. Chase Edmonds left Arizona as a free agent this offseason, leaving a backfield of James Cooner, Darrel Williams, Eno Benjamin and Keaontay Ingram — other than Conner in 2018, no one there has ever had a 60-target season, meaning Moore is the likely beneficiary of any short passing work.

If Moore can absorb some of the backfield receiving work and get more receiver targets as well, he could see a big jump in target numbers. At his production rate of 2021, a 100-target season could lead to 84 receptions, 680 yards and a score, or about 160 PPR points. That’s top-40 WR numbers even with bad touchdown luck. Add in a bit of scoring good fortune and some work as a runner (he had 18 carries las t season), and there’s a chance he could produce solid WR3 numbers in 2022.

Fornek: Rondale Moore

Rondale Moore was a disappointment during his rookie season. After a promising start to his career in the first two weeks of the season (13 targets, 11 catches, 182 yards, one touchdown), Moore was relegated to an inconsistent gadget role. According to FTN’s air yards tool, Moore had the lowest average depth of target (1.49) of any wide receiver in the NFL not named Greg Dortch (3) and Easop Winston (1). Moore is rightfully going as the WR49 in fantasy drafts given the concerns about his size and role going forward. However, there is a path for Moore to bounce back and deliver value in his second season.

The Cardinals will be forced to play Moore in the slot early in the season while DeAndre Hopkins serves a six-game suspension. While newly acquired Marquise Brown will see the majority of those targets, having a solid WR to replace Hopkins will alleviate pressure on the rest of Arizona’s weapons. Moore has a chance to get off to a hot start in Arizona’s offense, especially if Kliff Kingsbury opens up the playbook for him and lets him work downfield. Moore had nine games with at least four targets last season, the problem was most of them were coming on quick screen passes with the hope that Moore could make a tackler miss. If those targets start pushing downfield, then Moore has an excellent chance to provide great upside at his ADP.

Bust

Popielarz: Zach Ertz

After several years as one of the top fantasy options at tight end, Zach Ertz was pushed aside in Philadelphia in favor of Dallas Goedert. The Eagles dealt Ertz to Arizona in the middle of last season. With the Cardinals, Ertz was once again a big-time fantasy producer — from Week 7 to the end of the season, he was the TE4 in PPR leagues, putting up 56 receptions on 81 targets for 574 yards and 3 touchdowns.

So all is well heading into 2022, right? Well, not so fast. Most of Ertz’ big numbers with the Cardinals came in games without DeAndre Hopkins. The two played only two full games together (Week 7 and Week 14). Week 7 was Ertz’ Cardinals debut, so it makes sense that the team featured him a bit (5 targets and a carry). In Week 14, though, with Hopkins healthy, Ertz saw only 2 targets. Hopkins is set to miss the first six games of 2022 to suspension, but he should still be available for 11 games, and even then, the Cardinals added another upper-tier receiver in Marquise Brown this offseason. Add in rookie TE Trey McBride, and Ertz has plenty of competition. All that combines to mean Ertz is unlikely to top 100 targets again in 2022, which means less production and a more likely path to a TE2 finish than a TE1.

Fornek: James Conner

James Conner came out of nowhere last season to finish as the RB5 in PPR, averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game in 15 games. The veteran running back was OK as a runner (3.7 yards per carry) and pass catcher (37 receptions for 375 yards) but excelled at finding the end zone, finishing the season with 18 total touchdowns. Looking to 2022, Conner finds himself as the lead back for Arizona after they let Chase Edmonds walk in free agency. While this squarely puts Conner in a position to become a true three-down back in an explosive offense, it doesn’t necessarily mean he can hit the same scoring levels that he did in 2021.

The best version of Conner happened when Kyler Murray was limited by a high-ankle sprain. A healthy Murray can create with his legs, which creates less opportunity for Conner to get fed the checkdowns we need to raise his floor in PPR leagues. The Cardinals will be without DeAndre Hopkins to start the season, but will still have Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, A.J. Green and Rondale Moore to spread the ball to. They also drafted a pass-catching tight end (Trey McBride) in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Conner needs to run the ball more effectively or carve out a consistent receiving role to offset the insane touchdown totals he hit in 2021. However, that’s a lot to hope for with a third-round pick in PPR fantasy drafts. 

Bet

Popielarz: Darrel Williams Finishes as an RB2

Darrel Williams had a career year in 2021, producing 196.0 PPR points and finishing as the RB20. He had nine weeks with double-digit PPR points, including three over 20 points. He put up good receiving numbers on the way, catching 47 of 57 targets for 452 yards and a pair of scores. Now the RB2 in Arizona, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Williams work in largely the same pass-catching role he had last year. Departed pass-catching back Chase Edmonds saw 53 targets in 11 games. If Williams can even soak up the work Edmonds is leaving behind, he has a pretty clear path to flex-level relevance. But there’s a very obvious road to even more work — James Conner’s health. Conner set a career-high with 15 games played last year — he had averaged 12.5 games a year before that. Any games Conner misses in 2022 would probably put Williams in line for 20-plus touches in those games. Add Williams’ regular work with a handful of Conner-absent spike weeks, and he could sneak his way back into the top 24.

Fornek: Kyler Murray Finishes as the Overall QB1

Kyler Murray’s strong start to the 2021 season was lost in the shuffle after another underwhelming finish for the Cardinals. In the first seven weeks of the season, Murray was the QB3, averaging 24.81 fantasy points per game. He was highly efficient during that stretch, completing 73.5% of his passes for 2,002 yards and 17 touchdowns and five interceptions. He also added 43 carries for 126 yards and three touchdowns. Unfortunately, he suffered a high ankle sprain against the Packers that would eventually cost him three games. By the time Murray was ready to return, DeAndre Hopkins was injured, and the offense was further thrown into flux.

The Murray and Hopkins injuries forced the Cardinals to change their offense. In Weeks 1-7 (when Murray was at his best), Arizona was running 4-WR sets on 25% of their offensive plays, more than double the next-closest team (Buffalo, 11%). This offense allowed Murray to read the defense and spread the ball to whoever was open or take off and run against defenses forced into coverage. From Weeks 8-18 (when Murray and Hopkins were injured), that number dropped to just 5%.

The addition of Marquise Brown should give Arizona a legitimate WR1 on the outside to start the season, but the offense should take off once Hopkins returns from his suspension. Arizona will have the ability to attack defenses with Hopkins and A.J. Green on the outside, Brown, Rondale Moore and Zach Ertz in the middle of the field, while also using Murray’s legs and James Conner’s pass-catching in the middle of the field. Murray could have his best professional season in 2022 if he can stay healthy and has the best weapons of his career in the passing attack. A QB1 finish is very possible for Murray in his fourth season in the league.