Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
All summer long, I’m taking a look at the fantasy landscape heading into 2023 and helping drafters make some of the toughest decisions. If two players are close to one another in ADP, who should you choose? That’s the plan here. This is Fantasy Crossroads.
Our Fantasy Crossroads series continues with a look at two of the most talented running backs to enter the NFL over the last 10 years. Bijan Robinson is looking to help the Falcons win the NFC South, while Jonathan Taylor is looking to bounce back from a down, injury-riddled 2022 campaign. Both Robinson and Taylor could legitimately contend for the league-lead in touches in 2023, but who should be on your radar in fantasy football drafts?
You know the drill.
Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
The Case for Bijan Robinson
Whether you agree or not, you knew a team would select Bijan Robinson inside the top 10 during the NFL Draft. After the Atlanta Falcons selected him eighth overall, they made it clear they have huge plans for Robinson, who, in case you are living under a rock, is one of the best running back prospects of the last decade. Robinson forced 104 missed tackles during his final season at Texas, and according to Pro Football Focus, his 39% forced missed tackle rate was the best rate since they began charting college football. Robinson has good size at 5-foot-11, 215 pounds, but also possesses tremendous stop/start ability, especially at that frame.
He also might have the best vision I’ve ever seen from a running back. Robinson is also an excellent pass-catcher, averaging over 13 yards per reception throughout his collegiate career. Texas would often line him up out wide, and Robinson can run a multitude of routes. If he entered the draft process as strictly a wide receiver, he might be a top-five talent among the rookie wideouts. So the player? Elite. But what about the landing spot in Atlanta?
Also elite.
This Falcons’ running scheme is fruitful, as their carries were stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage just 15% of the time last year, the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Tyler Allgeier had a fantastic rookie campaign, rushing for over 1,000 yards while ranking ninth in yards before contact per rush attempt (2.9). And from Week 10 on, Allgeier ranked 10th in rushing yards (612), seventh in 100-yard games (2) and third in yards per attempt (5.3). The entire offensive line is underrated, but especially the right side led by right guard Chris Lindstrom. Per FTN’s Rushing Direction stats, Allgeier averaged 6.2 yards per carry on runs to the right in 2022.
Atlanta ran 230 plays with multiple running backs on the field last season, the most in the league, while operating out of the pistol formation at the highest rate in football. Robinson, who played in a similar offense at Texas, will be a perfect fit on a team that sported the league’s second-highest neutral script run rate in 2022 (55.6%). Robinson should see as many touches as anyone in football, especially given the draft capital. Since 2015, there have been five running backs selected in the top10 of the NFL Draft. Those running backs averaged a healthy 291.4 touches during those seasons, so 300 touches is firmly in the range of outcomes for Robinson, especially in this run-centric Atlanta offense.
The Case Against Bijan Robinson
Robinson should be selected in the first round of fantasy drafts, so it’s tough to craft an argument against him. If I had to choose, I would say Atlanta doesn’t project to be a top-12 offense, which could limit Robinson’s touchdown chances compared to other running backs.
And while Arthur Smith and the Falcons have stated they are going to use Robinson all over the field in the passing game, that still remains to be seen. Every year we hear teams talk about how they will use their star running back in the slot and out wide, only for it to rarely happen. And in 2022, the Falcons targeted the running back position just 16.5% of the time, the eighth-lowest rate in football.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts
The Case for Jonathan Taylor
After a monster 2021 campaign, Jonathan Taylor struggled in 2022, rushing for 861 yards and just four touchdowns on 192 carries. He missed six games with an ankle injury, but when he was on the field, Taylor clearly took a step back, ranking 18th in fantasy points per game in the full contests he played in. However, heading into 2023, Taylor is a prime bounce-back candidate. He’s still the clear lead running back in an improving offense with head coach Shane Steichen and rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson.
Steichen did a tremendous job with the high-powered Philadelphia Eagles offense last year, running a ton of RPO plays with Jalen Hurts. In fact, Hurts easily led the NFL in plays out of RPO in 2022 (148). Miles Sanders benefited from both Philadelphia’s elite offensive line and Hurts’ presence not just throwing the football, but also running with it. He averaged 3.2 yards before contact per attempt (4th in the league). We have seen running backs alongside dual-threat quarterbacks post strong efficiency numbers, and the presence of Richardson and a more creative RPO-themed offense could help Taylor out quite a bit. Don’t be at all surprised if this becomes one of the most efficient rushing attacks in football.
The volume was still great for Taylor in 2022. He averaged around 24 touches per game, including a career-high 3.9 targets per game. His playing time actually improved after the Colts traded Nyheim Hines, as Taylor logged almost all of the third-down plays. In the four full games without Hines, Taylor logged 94%, 75%, 92% and 82% of the offensive snaps to end his season. A healthy Taylor should compete for the league-lead in snap share and opportunity share at the running back position.
The Case Against Jonathan Taylor
Indianapolis’ offensive line has fallen off a bit. Quenton Nelson and Ryan Kelly had down seasons, but I still strongly believe they are good players. Assuming they bounce back, this line could return to top-10 status. But right now, this isn’t the unquestioned top-five unit it was a few years ago.
While Richardson could help with Taylor’s efficiency, it’s possible he’ll hurt his touchdown upside a little bit. At 6-foot-4, 244 pounds with 4.43 speed, Richardson is quite literally the most athletic quarterback to ever play football. He broke 39 tackles last year at Florida and rushed for over 700 yards. Steichen and company would be foolish not to utilize that ability in this offense, especially in the red zone. We saw the Eagles call Hurts’ number very often in close last year, as he finished second in all of football with 20 carries from inside the five-yard line. If the Colts call similar plays for Richardson, Taylor’s touchdown opportunities could take a hit.
The Verdict: Bijan Robinson
Both Robinson and Taylor are going to touch the ball 300 times this season, and I’ve gone back and forth between these star running backs. They project similarly heading into the 2023 campaign, but I have moved Robinson just ahead of Taylor in my rankings. I love Atlanta’s rushing scheme with that elite run-blocking unit, and Robinson is an absolutely perfect fit. However, I’ve seen many drafts already where Robinson comes off the board inside the top 10, with Taylor dropping into the second round. That’s definitely interesting, but straight up I’ll go with Robinson.
