Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The first and second (and third?) waves of free agency are behind us. The 2024 NFL Draft is in the rearview mirror. By this point of the offseason, we know who is going to be on all the rosters and who is available for our fantasy football teams.
Almost.
The end of the draft and the swath of undrafted free agents get teams fairly situated. But it also lets teams know once and for all what they still need to address. And while there’s not a Christian McCaffrey or a Marvin Harrison Jr. available at this point in the offseason, there are always free agents remaining after the draft who could end up mattering in fantasy.
To wit: In 2020, Cam Newton didn’t sign with the Patriots until July 8. No, he wasn’t vintage Cam Newton in New England, but he did have eight weeks as a top-12 fantasy QB that season. If I told you right now someone who is currently unemployed gets eight weeks as a fantasy starter, that would interest you.
So the guys who remain as free agents are there for a reason. And they probably aren’t going to be fantasy superstars in 2024. But they might be usable. So below, we’re looking at the remaining free agents out there who could matter in fantasy in 2024.
Remaining Free Agents Who Could Offer Fantasy Value in 2024
Ryan Tannehill, QB
Tannehill looked fairly done as a fantasy contributor last year, with 2 touchdowns against 6 interceptions in six games and no weekly finish better than QB15 (and only one better than QB20). But that was with maybe the worst offensive line in football and only one wide receiver worth any count (and that receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, was new to the team). In 2022, with a better line but worse receivers, Tannehill had five QB1 weeks in 12 games.
That’s more or less the extent of the upside for Tannehill at this point in his career, but it’s not nothing. If the Raiders decide a Gardner Minshew/Aidan O’Connell pairing isn’t their kettle of tea, if someone like the Bears wants a competent backup for their rookie starter, if a starter gets injured between now and Week 1, Tannehill could find a job, and if he finds his way to the starting lineup, he might be relevant.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB
Editor’s note: Ezekiel Elliott signed with the Cowboys Monday morning.
The headliner here, of course. Ezekiel Elliott is no longer the back who averaged over 1,200 rushing yards a year in his first six seasons, but he’s also not totally washed — even last year, primarily as a backup in New England, he got close to 1,000 scrimmage yards (955) and scored 5 touchdowns. He had one overall RB1 week (Week 14) and five weeks within the top-24 running backs.
The obvious fit right now for Elliott is back in Dallas. The Cowboys have Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn and Royce Freeman in the backfield after not drafting a running back over the weekend. Jerry Jones has already been touting his conversations with Zeke. It seems like the Cowboys at least waited through the draft to see if someone fell into their lap and now will go get their guy.
But until it’s done, it’s not done. Maybe they roll with Dowdle as the RB1. Maybe they go get someone like Miles Sanders if he’s unseated in Carolina. There are other backfields Elliott could find a role in. Cincinnati has only Zack Moss and Chase Brown. Las Vegas didn’t build much on their Zamir White/Alexander Mattison duo. Devin Singletary is the clear RB1 with the Giants. So the Cowboys seem like the obvious answer for Zeke, but just because it’s Option A doesn’t mean there aren’t Options B-Z out there.
Jerick McKinnon, RB
The Chiefs giving Xavier Worthy jersey No. 1 probably closes the door on any remaining chance of McKinnon returning to Kansas City. And he was just about a nonfactor in 2023, with only 252 scrimmage yards across 12 games. But even with that he scored 5 times, and of course he’s only a year removed from 803 yards and 10 touchdowns (9 receiving!) in a dynamite role for those same Chiefs. Even at age 32 (which he turns Friday), McKinnon could be an interesting receiving back.
The obvious fit is back in Kansas City, where the Chiefs haven’t replaced his pass-catching role, and of course where he has familiarity. But again, they gave away his jersey number. So could he make sense in Cleveland, if Nyheim Hines can’t return from his injury a year ago? Or as a complement to Joe Mixon in Houston? McKinnon’s days as a fantasy factor are probably done, but in the right role he could have his PPR value.
Rashaad Penny, RB
Penny’s one-year sojourn to Philadelphia was a failed experiment, with him immediately dropping behind D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell on the depth chart and ending the season with only 38 scrimmage yards. But he’s also the guy who, when he signed with the Eagles (before the Swift trade), my reaction was “Man, if Penny stays healthy, he might lead the league in rushing.”
In the sober light of day, sure, that was an oversell. But Penny’s biggest issue during his Seahawks days was health. He averaged nearly 70 yards a game in 2022 before an injury ended his season. He averaged over 134 yards a game over the last five weeks of 2021. Can he find a job where he can take over as the primary ball-carrier behind a line that can keep him healthy? Like, say, in Dallas?
Cam Akers, RB
Two torn Achilles. The excitement behind Akers entering the league is always going to be a memory, but at this point the chances Akers does much in the NFL are slim. But I include him under the thinking that if he gets a job, it will be because he showed something to whatever team signs him, and that would make him interesting. I think we’re done with a relevant Cam Akers, but it would be nice to be shown otherwise.
Tyler Boyd, WR
Boyd’s receiving yardage has fallen every year since 2019, from back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons to a relatively paltry 667 (and only 2 touchdowns) in 2023. But he’s the free agent receiver who has garnered the most buzz this offseason, because he’s considered extremely reliable (at least 15 games five straight seasons, including 17 last year) and is a handy slot option to have.
And that slot productivity is a nice one for fantasy too, because while Boyd’s days as a 1,000-yard guy are likely behind him, grabbing a receiver who is good for 60, 70 or even 80 receptions is nice in PPR leagues. He’s been linked to the Steelers several times this offseason, with the Jets and Chiefs also linked to the 29-year-old. All three teams did add receiving help in the draft, so maybe he’ll have to look elsewhere, but Boyd is a virtual lock to get a job somewhere.
Michael Thomas, WR
Thomas has played 20 of a possible 67 games the last four years since his break-the-mold 2019 season. He’s over 1,000 yards in that time, but, like, barely (1,057). He’s scored 4 touchdowns in four years. And he just turned 31. I’d be surprised if he gets a job.
But he’s also the guy who opened his career averaging 117.5 receptions on 150.5 targets for 1,378 yards and 8.0 touchdowns a year across his first four years. Sure, that might be gone now, but there are owners out there who will see those numbers and get pie-eyed.
Corey Davis, WR
Davis is 29 and spent 2023 retired, but he’s reportedly trying to come back. The former fifth overall pick hasn’t followed through on that draft potential in his career, but he did have seasons of 891 and 4 (on 112 targets) in 2018 and 984 and 5 (on 92) in 2020. There are some very shallow receiver depth charts around the league (say, the Chargers or the Lions or the Steelers, where his former offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is now the OC) where Davis could land and become at least an interesting depth piece.
Logan Thomas, TE
Thomas’ breakout year was 2020, when he caught 72 passes on 110 targets for 670 yards and 6 scores and finished as the TE3. He’s not come close to that since, but he did have a TE16 season last year with nearly 500 yards (496) and 4 scores. He’ll be 33 when the season starts, but he also graded out as the No. 13 qualified tight end in PFF pass-blocking last year and is still 6-foot-6. If a team needs a No. 2 or No. 3 tight end who can offer weekly TD upside, Thomas could be interesting.
