The good news is that there aren’t as many NFL teams in desperate need of a quarterback for next season as there are in many offseasons. The bad news is that there are even fewer solutions than most offseasons.
Last year, six quarterbacks were taken in the first 12 picks of the NFL Draft. This year, there might not be six quarterbacks in the first two days of the draft. The top quarterback on the free agent market, Sam Darnold, looked like a career backup a year ago and played like one a month ago. There are some big names on the trading block, but they all have some very obvious black marks.
In short, if you’re trying to identify the Week 1 starter for all 32 teams for 2025, it’s not that hard to make guesses for the first 20-some teams, and then it is very hard to figure out the last few. But that’s the task our team is taking on. As the offseason gets going, four members of the FTN Fantasy staff (Tyler Loechner, Mike Randle, Adam Pfeifer, Daniel Kelley) attempted to complete the puzzle. 32 teams. 32 Week 1 starting quarterbacks. Who are they, and what team are they on?
Check out the picks below, with a few thoughts on how it comes to pass.
NEW ORLEANS, LA – OCTOBER 09: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) calls out assignments during second half action during the football game between the Seattle Seahawks and New Orleans Saints at Caesars Superdome on October 9, 2022 in New Orleans, LA. (Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire)
There are a lot of teams this year that are sticking with what they had. Either they have a franchise quarterback, they got a new rookie a year ago or there’s just no logical off ramp right now. This is the longest list of unanimous picks we’ve had in four years of this exercise.
There have been talks of the Seahawks potentially getting out of the Geno Smith business this offseason given their cap situation, but our team all thinks he’ll be around for at least one more year.
Everyone thinks J.J. McCarthy steps right into the job in Minnesota despite him being only 22 and missing his rookie year to injury, with Sam Darnold making the Pro Bowl and finishing 10th in MVP voting. Maybe if Darnold had closed the season better this would be different, but his falloff in Week 18/the Wild Card Round appears to have sealed his fate.
There are two locked-in first-round quarterbacks in this year’s draft, but even with that our group doesn’t see a unanimous fit for either guy.
Mystery Scenarios
There was at least some disagreements in the selections for the rest of the teams. Here are the predictions, with some justifications from the crew.
As much fun as it would be to watch Jameis Winston come back, the Browns are going to press the reset button in the draft. Ward is the top QB in the class, and if he’s there at 2, the Browns are taking him. — Tyler Loechner
With Michael Penix Jr. taking over in Atlanta, Cousins has to play somewhere, and he’d be a good fit in Kevin Stefanski’s offense. — Adam Pfeifer
DETROIT, MI – AUGUST 24: Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson (3) calls out signals during the first quarter of an NFL preseason football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Detroit Lions on August 24, 2024 at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire)
It’s very possible I’m building a whole narrative here, but a situation where the Shedeur Sanders camp finagles its way to working with Tom Brady in Las Vegas wouldn’t surprise me at all. Whether that’s convincing the Raiders to trade up or telling teams he won’t play anywhere else a la Eli Manning, I see a Raiders-Sanders pair. — Daniel Kelley
The reunion with Pete Carroll writes itself. Wilson won’t be viewed as the long-term answer in Vegas, but a one- or two-year transition makes a lot of sense, as it doesn’t seem likely that a franchise QB will be available on draft day at pick No. 6. — Tyler Loechner
Vegas needs to get better immediately while also building for the future. Stafford makes an immediate impact for a Raiders team that will likely miss out on the top two QB prospects. — Mike Randle
There are plenty or murmurs about the Rams moving on from Matthew Stafford this offseason, and maybe it happens, but there’s no logical reason for it beyond “Well, he’s kind of old.” But this Rams team can win now, and Stafford is the best fit for that. — Daniel Kelley
Working with Sean McVay is a huge attraction for Darnold, who will always need support from the offensive scheme to find success. — Mike Randle
INDIANAPOLIS, IN – OCTOBER 29: New Orleans Saints Quarterback Derek Carr (4) looks to pass during the NFL game between the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts on October 29, 2023, at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire)
Do I think Derek Carr is still on the Saints roster to open the season? Yeah, probably. But that’s more because he will be extremely hard to move than it is because the Saints have any great attachment to him at this point. Grab Gabriel in the second round and go ahead and give him the job. This might be a long shot, but predicting any quarterback in New Orleans is a similarly long shot. — Daniel Kelley
I’ve been a stubborn supporter of Fields, and I still believe he can be a long-term NFL starter. Derek Carr is the ultimate JAG, and new head coach Kellen Moore could get very creative with a dual-threat like Fields. Part of me also just wants to see Fields in a dome. I’m not giving up this dream. — Tyler Loechner
Darnold was really good during the regular season, but his uninspiring play in key games down the stretch likely ends his time in Minnesota, especially with J.J. McCarthy waiting in the wings. — Adam Pfeifer
I don’t see many other options for Carr, who can still be a decent quarterback while also helping prepare Spencer Rattler, who the Saints love. — Mike Randle
If the Giants can get Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders, they probably should, but the scenario I foresee says they can’t (Ward going before them, Sanders insisting he wants to play elsewhere). Without (and maybe even with) one of those two, the Giants can’t “fix” the quarterback situation this offseason. So instead, get a quarterback we know can make the most out of Malik Nabers and turn your eyes to 2026. — Daniel Kelley
News flash: The Giants really need a quarterback. Pairing Ward’s strong arm with Malik Nabers could be a lot of fun. — Adam Pfeifer
This is not the typical New York Giants pick, but Big Blue is desperate. I cannot see them bypassing the upside with a quarterback like Sanders. They need to make a splash. — Mike Randle
The Jets almost assuredly still think they have a “win-now” roster, and — at least on paper — they do. The team wanted to sign Derek Carr before Aaron Rodgers, so perhaps they go back to that well in a trade with the Saints. — Tyler Loechner
I honestly have no clue what to expect from the Jets this offseason, but with the Aaron Rodgers era already over, I could see New York looking for a decent floor at quarterback. — Adam Pfeifer
The locker room likes Tyrod Taylor, but there are still enough pieces to make the playoffs. Cousins can still be an average NFL quarterback. — Mike Randle
PITTSBURGH, PA – SEPTEMBER 22: Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Justin Fields (2) looks on from under center during the regular season NFL football game between the Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers on September 22, 2024 at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Mark Alberti/Icon Sportswire)
I’m the only one not predicting Aaron Rodgers to Pittsburgh, and that’s because I find it hard to believe any team places its fates in the hands of that guy at this point. There just isn’t enough upside. Justin Fields might not be better than Rodgers, but he’s far more palatable, at least on a short-term deal. — Daniel Kelley
If Aaron Rodgers really wants to win, he will go to a contender in 2025. This is his last chance at a second Super Bowl ring, and Pittsburgh is the ideal location. Great coach, solid defense, legendary history. Rodgers can still pass well enough to get a team deep into the playoffs, but the Steelers need to add weapons. — Mike Randle
Color me shocked I’m the only one picking Cam Ward to Tennessee at 1.01. He’s not a prototypical first overall pick, and it might not work out, but the new front office in Tennessee will have a hard time justifying rolling it back with Will Levis another year, and splurging on a questionable free agent is a rough plan for a team that needs a lot of work to contend. — Daniel Kelley
Darnold’s career resurgence is rewarded with a chance to start in Tennessee. It’s not the world’s best QB class in 2025, so the Titans opt for Darnold instead of taking a shot at the top of the draft. — Tyler Loechner
If the Titans aren’t convinced that either Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders is worthy of the top pick, a potential Carr trade could make sense. Titans head coach Brian Callahan was Carr’s quarterbacks coach in Oakland back in 2018. — Adam Pfeifer
I truly believe the Titans want to try again with Levis. If Tennessee believes he can have a decent career (similar to Sam Darnold), then it’s worth trying to build around Levis in his third NFL season. — Mike Randle
